Phillies vs D-backs Picks & Props to Bet on Aug 31
By Blair Johnson in MLB Baseball
Published:
- Pick Gabriel Moreno Ov 1.5 Total Bases (+128 at Caesars)
- Back Max Kepler Ov 0.5 Hits (-140 at BetMGM)
- Take Brandon Pfaadt Un 3.5 Strikeouts (+110 at bet365)
The Philadelphia Phillies (77-60) and Arizona Diamondbacks (73-65) open a fresh series tonight at Chase Field. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 PM EST on August 31. Both clubs enter Monday’s matchup riding momentum from recent victories. Philadelphia defeated the Angels on Saturday, while Arizona split a doubleheader with San Francisco on Saturday.
I step into this National League clash eyeing the Phillies as slight road favorites. They hand the ball to Aaron Nola to navigate an Arizona lineup headlined by star outfielder Corbin Carroll. Looking to defend their home diamond as underdogs, the Diamondbacks counter with Brandon Pfaadt.
The right-hander faces the tall task of quieting elite sluggers like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. Let’s dig into MLB odds and my top prop predictions before you lock in your wagers.
Best Phillies vs Diamondbacks Player Props to Bet
Finding the best edges in the prop market comes down to identifying strong situational trends that sportsbooks have yet to fully adjust for. After evaluating the lines and recent performances, here are my top MLB player props to bet for tonight’s matchup.
Gabriel Moreno Ov 1.5 Total Bases (+128 at Caesars)
Gabriel Moreno is seeing the ball exceptionally well in his home ballpark. Getting plus-money odds to clear 1.5 total bases is one of the most appealing values on the board. He has gone over 1.5 total bases in 9 of his last 12 home games.
Over that 12-game stretch at Chase Field, the backstop averages 2.1 total bases per game. That translates to a 75% success rate for a prop line currently paying out at a generous +128 price tag. Given his high success rate, backing Moreno here is a strong play.
Max Kepler Ov 0.5 Hits (-140 at BetMGM)
Sometimes, my best approach is to ride the hot hand. Max Kepler is swinging a very reliable bat right now, making him a prime target. Kepler is 6-1 versus a hits over/under of 0.5 in his last seven games.
Hitting at an 86% clip to pick up at least one base knock recently, Kepler consistently delivers for bettors. He has averaged exactly 1.0 hits per game during this run. While I have to lay a bit of juice at -140, his consistency makes him a dependable option to reach base against Philadelphia’s pitching staff.
Brandon Pfaadt Un 3.5 Strikeouts (+110 at bet365)
Fading starting pitchers at home can be daunting, but the recent trends for Brandon Pfaadt’s strikeout totals are too stark to ignore. Pfaadt has failed to exceed 3.5 strikeouts in five straight home games. During his last five starts at Chase Field, he averages just 2.6 strikeouts per outing.
Expanding the scope reveals he has also failed to clear 3.5 strikeouts in six of his last nine games overall. With sportsbooks continuing to set his line at 3.5 despite these struggles, we have a clear edge. Check MLB pitcher strikeout props for line movement, but I love the under here.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Player Props & Trends
Kyle Schwarber stands out as the most likely candidate to hit a long ball tonight. If you want to take a shot on these sluggers, use our DraftKings promo before exploring the board. Meantime, Corbin Carroll is heavily juiced to record at least one hit but offers much more appealing +110 odds to go over 1.5 total bases. Lars Nootbaar is another appealing bat, priced at +151 to clear 1.5 total bases.
Both starting pitchers have reachable strikeout floors. Nola’s total outs line sits at 16.5, indicating oddsmakers expect him to pitch deep. I suggest checking out MLB pitching outs props for more value. You can sign up now to claim our FanDuel promo when getting action down on these lines. Now, looking at situational trends, Nootbaar has gone over 1.5 total bases in three of his last four games but is just 1-7 versus that line in his last eight home games.
Batter vs Pitcher Matchups
Philadelphia Phillies Batters vs Brandon Pfaadt
Arizona Diamondbacks Batters vs Aaron Nola
Looking at historical numbers against Pfaadt, J.T. Realmuto finds the most consistent success, hitting .333 with a pair of extra-base hits. You can explore more MLB batter vs pitcher stats to build your card. On the other hand, Bryan De La Cruz and Bryce Harper have largely struggled with the Arizona right-hander.
For the Diamondbacks, Nootbaar (.500 AVG, 1 HR) and Geraldo Perdomo (.400 AVG, 2 XBH) boast strong track records against Aaron Nola. They could offer value in the total bases prop market. Conversely, veteran backstop James McCann struggles mightily against the Phillies ace, managing only a .143 average while striking out six times in 14 career at-bats.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Injury Report & Park Factors
Arizona enters this contest severely compromised. With aces Zac Gallen and Corbin Burnes both on the injured list, the starting staff relies heavily on Pfaadt to eat innings. Offensively, operating without dangerous hitters like Ketel Marte takes significant pressure off Nola.
Meantime, Philadelphia’s biggest absence is slugging outfielder Adolis García, which limits their overall ceiling for run production. These injuries tie perfectly into the MLB park factors at Chase Field. The stadium averages 8.88 runs and 16.85 hits per game but yields only 2.09 home runs. The expansive dimensions favor gap-to-gap hitting over pure power.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Odds
Odds as of August 31, 2026, at 6:34 PM UTC from WilliamHillNewJersey. Before locking in any moneyline or spread bets, start betting at Caesars now or claim your BetMGM promo now.
The Phillies enter tonight’s cross-conference matchup as slight road favorites at -115 on the moneyline. Bettors looking to back Philadelphia on the runline can grab them at -1.5 for a lucrative +135 payout. Conversely, Arizona is priced at -160 to keep the final score within a single run.
There has been a notable shift in the total runs market. The opening total was set at an even 8 runs but has since been bumped up to 8.5. This half-run increase likely reflects the severe pitching injuries plaguing Arizona, leading oddsmakers to anticipate more run production from the Phillies. You can also claim your bet365 bonus now or claim your theScore Bet promo code if you want to shop for the absolute best lines before first pitch.
Sports Writer
Blair Johnson is a veteran journalist and seasoned sports content creator. He has been writing and producing content as long as he can remember, with such familiar names as CNN, NFL Media and Yahoo. Blair currently lives and works in the greater Los Angeles area.
