Rice vs Texas State Prediction, Line & Player Updates – Armed Forces Bowl

• Two Texas schools meet for the second bowl game in three years
• Texas State looks for its third straight winning season
• Keep reading for my Rice vs Texas State prediction, line and player updates

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The Rice Owls (5-7) and Texas State Bobcats (6-6) will battle in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl. Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas, will host the 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff on Friday, Jan. 2, 2026. ESPN will broadcast the game.

Continue reading for my Rice vs Texas State prediction as well as my pick, line and player updates for the Armed Forces Bowl.

Rice vs Texas State Prediction

My Rice vs Texas State prediction is Texas State 35, Rice 17.

In one of the weaker bowl offerings, I am backing Texas State to bludgeon Rice in this all-Texas affair. I am leaning toward the under and Texas State on the spread.

Texas State has the much better offense in this matchup. The Bobcats average 475.8 total yards per game, which ranks ninth in the nation. They get 220.5 yards of that on the ground (13th FBS) and 255.3 yards through the air (41st). But in the second half of the regular season, the Bobcats registered 284.7 passing yards per game.

Meaning behind the mission.#EatEmUp| @ArmedForcesBowl pic.twitter.com/TJaXaheGvq

— Texas State Football (@TXSTATEFOOTBALL) January 1, 2026

Texas State has excellent success rate numbers and equally fine explosive ratings. It cranks out value drives and finishes off red-zone opportunities with a better-than-average 65.5% TD rate. The Rice defense is among the worst in FBS in preventing red-zone TDs at 75.7%.

The Bobcats are not good on defense. But a picked-apart-by-opt-outs Owls squad may not be able to leverage much of an advantage there. Look for Rice to crank out more than a few big plays and get some points. But Texas State is the clear favorite here.

I am backing Under 57.5 for the following reasons: Texas State’s defense ranks in the bottom 25 in FBS in scoring, but the Bobcats have allowed 14 points in two of their last three games. On the other side, Rice is averaging less than 20 points per game, only scoring 30+ against FCS Prairie View A&M and UConn (in double overtime).

The under has hit in two of the last three games for both teams this season. Only three Rice games have featured 58 or more points this season. Points have been much easier to come by in Texas State games, but Rice is among the worst offenses in the country.

Armed Forces Bowl Picks:

• Under 57.5 (-110, Fanatics)
• Texas State -15.5 (lean)

Rice vs Texas State Line

The Rice vs Texas State line has the Bobcats as huge favorites in the Armed Forces Bowl odds. Texas State bettors should take the Bobcats at -15.5 on FanDuel for -115 odds or -650 on the moneyline at DraftKings. Rice bettors should take the Owls +16.5 at BetRivers for -110 odds or +560 on the moneyline at FanDuel.

The total is set between 55.5 and 57.5 points, depending on the book. Over bettors can take over 55.5 on FanDuel (-110 odds). Under bettors can take under 57.5 on Fanatics (-110 odds).

Odds as of January 1, 2026, at consensus college football betting apps. Make sure you check out the best online sportsbook to bet on the Armed Forces Bowl.

Rice vs Texas State Player Updates & Opt Outs

Rice Owls Player Updates

The guy who makes the Rice offense go isn’t playing. Quarterback Chase Jenkins is in the transfer portal, and main backup Drew Devillier is moving on too. It’ll take some patching to figure out who’ll be running the offense.

Rice hasn’t won a bowl game since 2014, which was the last time it enjoyed a winning season. The Owls are 5-7 and here because of team opt outs. When this ground attack gets moving, they can be dangerous. The formula is basic: run, keep running, and keep the clock moving.

The Owls are 0-5 when they fail to blow past 190 rushing yards. Texas State generates a ton of pressure behind the line, but it’s been ripped up a bit too much on the ground – the Bobcats are 2-5 when allowing 150 yards or more.

Texas State Bobcats Player Updates

Texas State is relatively unaffected by the transfer portal this time around, at least so far. The offense might have had a long layoff, but it should be able to rumble at will.

The passing is among the most accurate and efficient in college football, and when the balance is there from the ground attack, forget it. Rice doesn’t have the pass rush or the playmaking defense to slow down what the Bobcats are about to bring.

Rice vs Texas State Key Players

Rice: Tony Anyanwu (ED)

The former Baylor linebacker is among the most productive edge defenders in the American. The senior has 6.5 tackles for a loss and 5.0 sacks. He also has a forced fumble, fumble recovery and pass deflection.

Most pressures, AAC EDGE defenders:

Tony Anyanwu, Rice: 42
Cam'Ron Stewart, Temple: 36
Ethan Day, North Texas: 26
Ira Singleton, USF: 26
J'Dan Burnett, Tulsa: 25
Julien Moutome, Navy: 22
Harvey Dyson, Tulane: 22
Luke Pirris, Navy: 21
Briceon Hayes, North Texas: 21
Everett… pic.twitter.com/XjMOnmH4HK

— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) December 8, 2025

Anyanwu leads American edges with 42 pressures. He has an 83.3 PFF pass rush grade and an 84.4 run defense grade. In addition to his five sacks, he has seven other quarterback hits.

Texas State: Brad Jackson (QB)

Brad Jackson’s freshman season was quite solid. The signal caller has 34 total touchdowns, leading the conference in completion percentage, yards per attempt and passing efficiency. As the Bobcats move conferences in the coming year, Jackson could be the best quarterback in the new-look Pac-12.

Bobcat Nation…LETS RUN IT BACK‼️@TXSTATEFOOTBALL @GJKinne @LDKep pic.twitter.com/wqLru16bbk

— Brad Jackson (@BradJacksonUS) December 6, 2025

Jackson is also a sturdy dual-threat option. Even including sacks, Jackson ran for 692 yards and a Sun Belt-leading 16 touchdowns. He has multiple rushing touchdowns in five games, including each of the last three games. Jackson has two games with at least 100 rushing yards.

Texas State: Jaden Rios (CB)

The senior FCS East Texas A&M transfer has played well at the FBS level in 2025. Rios leads the Bobcats with three interceptions. He also has a sack and 3.5 tackles for a loss. Notably, his sack and 2.5 of his 3.5 tackles for a loss came in non-conference games against Eastern Michigan and Arizona State.

Rios has been red-hot down the stretch. He has interceptions in three of his last five games. He also had a game with three pass deflections in Texas State’s loss to Louisiana. According to PFF, Rios has surrendered just a 61.0 NFL passer rating this season.

Rice vs Texas State History

Rice and Texas State have played five times in their histories, with Texas State holding a 3-2 edge. This will be the second time Rice and Texas State have battled in a bowl game in the last three seasons.

Back in 2023, Texas State turned a 21-21 tie game into a 45-21 resounding victory in the First Responder Bowl. Thanks to a pair of Brian Holloway’s pick-sixes and a three-touchdown game from Jahmyl Jeter, the Bobcats cruised in the second half. On the Rice side, quarterbacks AJ Padgett and Shawgi Itraish combined to throw five interceptions.