Grizzlies vs Magic Picks & Predictions for Berlin (Jan 15)

• Memphis star guard Ja Morant (right calf) is out
• Orlando enters as a 5.5-point favorite
• Our detailed analysis reveals the best plays for Grizzlies vs Magic on Thursday in Berlin

The Orlando Magic and Memphis Grizzlies are set to meet on foreign soil Thursday in Berlin. Tip-off is set for 2 pm, ET, today (Prime).

Orlando enters as a 5.5-point favorite against a wounded Grizzlies team that again will be without injured All-Star Ja Morant.

For Orlando, this is a prime opportunity to handle business against a depleted opponent while showcasing stars like Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner on the international stage. This preview will break down the key analytics and matchups to help you find the sharpest angle for your wager.

Grizzlies vs Magic Betting Analysis & Best Bets

Best Bet: Orlando Magic -5.5 (-108) via FanDuel Sportsbook

This neutral-site matchup in Berlin presents a compelling betting scenario where Morant’s absence fundamentally alters the competitive landscape. The betting market has responded accordingly, indicating professional money backing Orlando to win comfortably.

For the total, the Under 231.5 represents exceptional value despite the Magic’s recent high-scoring affairs. Memphis has failed to reach 110 points in recent games without Morant, and the Under has been a common outcome in Grizzlies games when facing teams with winning records. Orlando’s defense tightens considerably against offensively challenged opponents this season.

The most compelling player prop opportunity lies with Paolo Banchero’s scoring output. In Orlando’s last three games against depleted opponents, Banchero has been efficient from the field. With Memphis missing key frontcourt defenders and their primary rim protector in Jaren Jackson Jr. likely drawing double teams, Banchero should find favorable matchups throughout.

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Second Bet: Under 231.5 (-110) at Bet365

Memphis isn’t the same without Morant. Coupled with Orlando’s top-15 NBA defense, extensive travel and unfamiliar sightlines, the Under is the best play.

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Public Betting Splits: Sharp Money Backing Magic, Contrarian Value on Under

The NBA public betting sentiment reveals a fascinating split between confidence in Orlando’s victory and hesitation about laying the points, creating valuable contrarian opportunities for sharp bettors.

Moneyline: The public overwhelmingly expects an Orlando victory, with 74.6% of all moneyline wagers and 79.0% of the total money backing the Magic. Conversely, only 25.4% of bets and 21.0% of the money are on the Grizzlies.

Spread: Despite the moneyline confidence, sentiment flips dramatically on the spread. A majority of spread bets (65.4%) are taking the points with Memphis, while 58.8% of the money backs the Grizzlies to keep it close. Only 34.6% of bets and 41.2% of the money are on the Magic to cover.

Total: Public bettors are anticipating fireworks in Berlin, with a majority of all bets (70.1%) and 69.9% of the money on the Over. This heavy lean toward the Over, despite Memphis’ obvious offensive limitations without their star, makes the Under 231.5 (29.9% of bets, 30.1% of money) an attractive contrarian play.

Grizzlies vs Magic Statistical Breakdown

Morant’s contributions are included in these regular-season stats. Without dynamic playmaking and pace-pushing ability, the Grizzlies’ respectable offensive metrics become misleading. Memphis’s offensive rating drops without their floor general. This offensive stagnation, combined with Orlando’s length and athleticism in the paint, creates a recipe for a comfortable Magic victory that clears the 5.5-point spread.

Grizzlies vs Magic Injury Report Analysis

The cascading effect of Memphis’ injuries cannot be overstated. Beyond Morant’s obvious absence, the loss of Clarke and Edey significantly weakens its interior defense against Orlando’s paint-heavy attack.

Grizzlies vs Magic Odds & Line Movement

The betting market has clearly responded to Memphis’ personnel issues, with significant line movement favoring Orlando since the initial posting.

Odds as of January 14, 2026.

The line movement tells a compelling story of sharp money backing Orlando. The spread for the Magic showed movement as news of Morant’s absence solidified. Similarly, the moneyline shifted, indicating increased confidence in Orlando’s chances.

The current odds translate to vig-free probabilities for Orlando and Memphis. A successful $20 wager on the favored team would reflect the significant risk premium on the undermanned Grizzlies.

The total also saw upward movement, suggesting some belief in Orlando’s ability to score freely against a compromised Memphis defense. However, this movement appears to be public-driven rather than sharp money, making the Under an even more attractive contrarian play in what should be a controlled, methodical victory for the Magic on neutral ground in Berlin.