Sunday NFL Parlay Picks – Get Better Than 7-1 Odds for Divisional Round Parlay

This Sunday presents the fewest number of games – just two – we have had to choose from all season when loading up an NFL parlay. Typically, this means it’s harder to pick off bad lines at sportsbooks, because they are able to monitor each one more closely. But I had no problem finding these three NFL picks that I am going to parlay for +757 odds.

Each one of these lines caught my attention immediately, and I grew even more fond after I took a look at the pertinent stats/data. I have shared my justification for each pick below, as well as the sportsbook with the best odds for the parlay (and each leg).

Divisional Round Sunday NFL Parlay Picks

My favorite NFL parlay for Sunday includes three picks across the Texans vs Patriots and Rams vs Bears games. FanDuel had the best odds for this parlay at the time of writing, but the leg from the Texans vs Patriots game has better odds at a different sportsbook, if you care to play it as a single as well – I always do!

I disclose the best sportsbook for each pick in my analysis below, where I also reveal the data to support why I like each of these NFL picks so much.

Texans vs Patriots to Be Low-Scoring

The Texans have allowed the fewest points per game in the NFL this season, only surrendering 16.7 per game. The Patriots defense ranks third, only allowing 17.9 points per game.

I appreciate that the Patriots scored the second-most points this regular season, but they also only played one defense ranked in the top 11 in points allowed. That game came last week against the Chargers, where they only managed 16 points – the lone touchdown came in the 4th quarter.

The Texans defense presents a far greater challenge on Sunday, while the weather (snow expected) is also expected to be a factor. I don’t see the Patriots scoring more than the 16 points they managed last week.

On the other side, the Texans offense looked horrific last week. Their defense was responsible for 14 of their 30 points – two defensive TDs – and CJ Stroud continued to be careless with the football. Stroud will now be without his top target, Nico Collins, for this one, and. facing a far better defense.

• Pick: Under 40.5 in Texans vs Patriots (-105 at DraftKings)

Why I Like D’Andre Swift vs Rams in the Cold

I can understand some people not liking this pick. D’Andre Swift has not recorded 60+ rushing yards in any of his last four games. But throw those out because the Soldier Field temperature forecast is looking very cold, which was not the case in any of those games!

D’Andre Swift Recent Game Logs

In the last three games Ben Johnson’s offenses have played in below freezing temperatures, two of which have come this season with the Bears, his offense averages 32.3 rushing attempts per game. Last week’s Wild Card matchup against the Packers does not count, as it was not below freezing.

The two games from this season show up in Swift’s game log above – Week 14 and Week 15. Swift recorded 60+ rushing yards in both of those games, which came against similarly ranked run defenses to what he’ll see Sunday night against the Rams (12th).

I suspect the cold to slow the Rams aerial attack slightly, while Johnson does everything he can to win the physicality battle. Johnson invested heavily into his offensive line this offseason for this exact type of game.

• Pick: D’Andre Swift 60+ Rushing Yards (+116 at FanDuel)

Colby Parkinson Remains Steady vs Bears

With stars. like Puka Nacua and Davante Adams at wide receiver, it’s easy to forget about Colby Parkinson, which is what I think the sportsbooks have done here. Parkinson has played at least 75% of LA’s offensive snaps in each of the last five games, and has played 84%+ in three of them.

He’s been taking full advantage of the extra snaps and putting up a pretty steady number of receiving yards over the second half of the season.

Colby Parkinson Game Logs

Parkinson has recorded 25+ receiving yards in each of his last three games, and seven of his last eight. When considering the expected frigid temperatures, which will likely result in more balls thrown around the line of scrimmage, I also really like that since Week 10, Parkinson’s average air yards per target is just 4.5 yards and he averages 25.3 yards after the catch per game.

The Bears rank 22nd against the pass and there’s no way Sean McVay lets the weather stop the Rams offense from attacking Chicago through the air. When they do, I like Parkinson to see his handful of targets, which he’ll turn into more than 25 yards.

• Pick: Colby Parkinson 25+ Receiving Yards (+136 at FanDuel)