Bo Nix Injury: Broncos Super Bowl Odds Plummet After Ankle Fracture

• Bo Nix suffered a season-ending ankle fracture in Denver’s overtime win against Buffalo
• The Broncos’ Super Bowl odds took a massive hit at BetMGM after the injury news broke
• Jarrett Stidham will start the AFC Championship Game for Denver

The Denver Broncos pulled off a gutsy 33-30 overtime win against the Buffalo Bills on Saturday night to reach the AFC Championship Game. Hours later, they received devastating injury news.

Bo Nix fractured a bone in his right ankle during the final moments of overtime. Head coach Sean Payton confirmed postgame that Nix will undergo season-ending ankle surgery on Tuesday and won’t play again this season.

The betting markets crashed immediately. Denver’s Super Bowl odds went from +325 to +1000 at BetMGM, dropping the Broncos from third-favorite to the fifth-longest shot among the seven remaining playoff teams.

Updated Super Bowl Odds After Bo Nix Injury

Denver’s updated +1000 Super Bowl odds translate to just a 9.1% implied probability of winning the Super Bowl. Before Nix went down, the Broncos sat around 23.5% as the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

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AFC Championship Odds

Odds as of Jan. 17 at BetMGM.

Denver also dropped in the AFC Championship odds. They’re now +200 to win the conference behind the Patriots at +130, despite hosting the game at Mile High next Sunday.

How Bo Nix Got Hurt

The Bo Nix ankle injury happened on a quarterback keeper late in overtime. Nix scrambled for a first down but took a hard shot as he went down near the sideline.

He stayed in for one more play before backup Jarrett Stidham kneeled out the clock after Wil Lutz’s game-winning field goal. Payton revealed after the game that Nix broke his ankle on that keeper.

Nix finished the Bills game, completing 26 of 46 passes for 279 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. He added 29 rushing yards on 12 carries before the injury knocked him out.

Bo Nix’s 2025 Season Stats

The broken ankle ends a breakout second season for Nix. The former Oregon quarterback led Denver to a 14-3 record and the AFC’s No. 1 seed in his second year as a pro.

Bo Nix 2025 Regular Season

Those aren’t Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen numbers, but Nix developed into a plus starter who could beat teams with his legs and make plays when things broke down. Losing that dual-threat ability is a huge blow to Denver’s offense.

Broncos Backup QB Situation

Jarrett Stidham takes over as Denver’s starting quarterback for the AFC Championship Game. Sam Ehlinger moves up to backup duty on the depth chart.

Stidham has been with the Broncos since 2023 and knows Sean Payton’s system. He’s appeared in 21 NFL games with four starts across six seasons with the Patriots, Raiders, and Broncos. His career record as a starter is 1-3.

Jarrett Stidham Career Stats

The biggest concern is handling pressure. Stidham’s career sack rate sits at 8.8%, which suggests he struggles against the blitz. That’s a problem when you’re facing elite AFC defenses in January.

Payton expressed confidence in his backup after the Bills game. “Stiddy’s ready. And we’ll be ready,” he said. But there’s a clear talent drop-off from Nix, especially in terms of mobility and playmaking ability.

Sam Ehlinger is a former Colts QB who started briefly in 2022 in Indianapolis. Denver promoted him to the active roster before the playoff run. He’s more of an emergency option now that Stidham is elevated to starter.

What This Means for Denver’s Super Bowl Chances

The Broncos still have plenty going for them. Their defense recorded a franchise-record 68 sacks this season, 11 more than any other team and just four short of the all-time NFL record. They went 8-1 at home during the regular season and get to host the AFC Championship at Mile High.

But losing your starting quarterback in the playoffs changes the equation fast. Sportsbooks tell us a starting QB injury is worth four to seven points on the spread, depending on the backup.

Payton will have to shrink the playbook for Stidham. That means more run-heavy sets, fewer deep shots, and a conservative game plan built around field position and defense. Those extended plays where Nix bought time with his legs? Not happening anymore.

Denver went from being a true Super Bowl contender to fifth among the seven remaining playoff teams. They’re asking Stidham to win two straight games against top competition, with the Super Bowl on a neutral field if they get there.

Their defense and home-field advantage should give them a chance in the AFC Championship. But the Bo Nix broken ankle just turned Denver’s best Super Bowl chance in years into a serious longshot.