The American Express Picks, Predictions & Odds

• The American Express tees off Thursday, January 22nd from La Quinta, California
• Scottie Scheffler is the +245 favorite over Ben Griffin to win outright
• See my 2026 The American Express picks, best value bets, and the odds to win the tournament

The second tournament of the PGA Tour season heads to the mainland in California. It follows the Sony Open, which was won by Chris Gottercup, who was +4500 entering the week. It’s The American Express, which features golfers rotating between three golf courses, then for the final round, playing at PGA West. Scottie Scheffler makes his first start of 2026, and he’s the heavy favorite to start his campaign off with a victory.

This event is a shootout every year, with all 14 iterations producing a champion who shot at least 20-under-par since it went to a 72-hole format. Last year, Sepp Straka held off Justin Thomas for the trophy, and in 2024, amateur (at the time) Nick Dunlap won his first PGA Tour title.

The American Express Odds 2026

I’m starting my card this week with defending champion Sepp Straka, who sports very intriguing +3500 odds, which are longer than the top nine golfers on the board. This event was the first of two victories in 2025, where he also took the Truist Championship.

Odds as of 11:00pm ET on Sunday, January 19th at DraftKings. Check out the full list of DraftKings deposit methods.

Last Five The American Express Winners

Straka racked up seven top-10s last year, with his latest showing a very solid third place at the Hero World Challenge. He also was top-15 in birdie average, which will come in handy as he attempts to go back-to-back. The big Austrian often goes under the radar, since he’s not as big a name as some other golfers, but he has closing ability when he’s near the top of the board, so I love him at +3500 odds (four wins since 2022).

The American Express 2026 Picks & Value Bets

1. Michael Thorbjorsen +5000: The uber talented phenom Michael Thorbjornsen has put together two runner-up finishes in his young career on the PGA Tour (2024 John Deere, 2025 Corales), and had three other top-5s in 2025. He was eighth in birdie average last season, something that he’ll need to make in bunches to compete at this championship.
2. Daniel Berger +7500: Daniel Berger had a scorching hot stretch from late 2024 to mid 2025, picking up a pair of runner-ups and a third place result, but cooled off the back half of last year. He began this campaign with a flourish, recording a T-6th at the Sony Open with a final round 64, tied for second best round of the day.
3. Chris Kirk +20000: This number for Chris Kirk seems like a bad misprice, in favor of us bettors. Even though he missed the cut in Hawaii, he posted a pair of top-10s in his last three starts of 2025, and also was tied for third at this tournament in 2023.
4. Davis Riley +25000: Davis Riley led the Sony Open by two strokes heading into the final round, before settling for a T-6th place finish. He was first in putting for the week, which would bode well in this event, which is a putting contest essentially. He’ll be interesting to monitor in the top 10/20 markets.

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