Patriots vs Broncos Early Odds Movement & Betting Splits for AFC Championship
By Sascha Paruk in NFL News
Published:
- The New England Patriots get to face the Bo Nix-less Denver Broncos in the AFC title game
- The Patriots opened as sizable favorites and the public is hammering New England
- See the early Patriots vs Broncos odds movement and public-betting splits for Jan. 25
The New England Patriots (16-3, 8-0 away) and Denver Broncos (15-3, 9-1 home) are set to meet in the 2026 AFC Championship Game on Sunday, January 25th, at Mile High in Denver, CO.
The Broncos have home-field advantage and have won 14 of their last 15 games in Denver, but the Patriots are sizable road chalk because the home team will be down its starting quarterback for the AFC Championship Game. The early odds movement shows the line heading in New England’s direction, as well.
The table below lists the current odds in bold, followed by the opening odds in square brackets.
NE Patriots vs DEN Broncos Odds Movement
The Patriots/Broncos spread remains at New England -4.5 but it has become considerably more expensive to bet the Patriots ATS, opening at -105 and now sitting at -118. Broncos ATS bettors were staring at an opening price of +4.5 (-115) but can now get Denver at -104 to cover the spread.
On the moneyline, New England has shortened from the opening number of -225 (69.23% implied win probability) to -240 (70.59%). The Denver moneyline has grown from +188 (34.72% implied win probability) to +198 (33.56%).
The opening Patriots/Broncos odds listed the game total at 40.5 and it remains at basically the same number and price. Betting the over is now a slightly more expensive proposition, moving from -110 to -115.
Current odds from FanDuel at 10:59 am ET, Jan. 19. Opening odds from FanDuel at 1:47 pm ET, Jan. 18. Download the top Super Bowl betting apps ahead of the AFC title game.
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With Nix out, Jarrett Stidham will make his first start since 2023 and, indeed, his next pass will be his first in non-preseason game since Week 17 of the 2023-24 season. The former New England Patriots fourth-round pick has a 78.3 career passer rating and 59.4 completion percentage over six seasons.
NE vs DEN Betting Splits for AFC Title Game
The NFL public betting splits for the AFC Championship Game are a good indication of why the line has moved towards the Pats. In the first 12-plus hours of betting action, New England is getting a staggering 90% of moneyline handle and an even more ridiculous 94% of ATS handle.
The public also has a strong lean to the over so far, putting 66% of bets and 72% of money on over 40.5, which helps explain why the over has moved from -110 to -115.
Bookmark SBD’s NFL betting odds page to see up-to-the-minute lines for both Conference Championship Games and the 2026 Super Bowl.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
