Bruins vs Lightning Prediction, Props, Odds & Injury News – 2026 Stadium Series

• The Lightning are -220 home favorites over the Bruins at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday
• Tampa Bay has won 16 of their last 18 games, while Boston is missing their top two centers
• See my Bruins vs Lightning prediction, props, odds and injury news for the 2026 Stadium Series

Wintry conditions with overnight temperatures in the low 30s will be welcomed in the Sunshine State when the Lightning (34-14-4) host the Bruins (32-20-3) in the 2026 NHL Stadium Series at Raymond James Stadium.

Puck drop is set for 6:30 pm ET, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage. Here’s my Bruins vs Lightning prediction, props, the latest NHL odds, and injury news.

Bruins vs Lightning Prediction

• Score Prediction: Tampa Bay 3, Boston 2
• Betting Pick: Bruins +1.5 (-143 at DraftKings)

My 2026 NHL Stadium Series prediction is a tight, low-scoring game with Tampa Bay winning in front of their passionate fans.

The Lightning are undoubtedly the better team. The metrics support it, home ice supports it, and the line movement supports it. Tampa Bay leads the Atlantic Division and is currently a top favorite in the Stanley Cup odds. They’ve been dominant, riding a 16-1-1 stretch into this game with seven straight wins at home.

History isn’t kind to road teams in these games either. Home teams are 13-3 all-time in the Stadium Series, with Tampa beating Nashville 3-2 here back in 2022. The Bolts know how to win outdoors.

So why take Boston +1.5? Outdoor games are volatile. Looking at the 15 Stadium Series results, nine were decided by two goals or fewer, including two overtime finishes. The ice can be unpredictable, sight lines vary, and momentum can swing faster than in a climate-controlled arena.

Then there’s the goaltending. Andrei Vasilevskiy owns a 2.04 GAA and .920 save percentage this season. Jeremy Swayman sits at .903 for Boston. When two goalies this good square off, games stay tight.

The weather helps too. Forecasts call for temperatures in the high 30s with 15-20 mph winds. That’s great for ice quality but brutal for east-west passing plays. Both teams will likely simplify their attack, and a dump-and-chase game favors the underdog staying within striking distance.

Bruins vs Lightning Key Stats

Winners of two straight, Boston comes in as the No. 2 wild-card team in the Eastern NHL Playoff Bracket. The Bruins closed January 9-0-0 at home, outscoring opponents 39-16. But the road has been trickier at 11-12-2 away from TD Garden.

The Bruins have been stealing wins all month despite underlying metrics that say they shouldn’t be this good. They rank 28th in expected goals percentage over their last 10 games, yet keep finding ways to win. Plus-1.5 at -150 gives you cushion if Tampa wins by one, and if Boston pulls the upset, you’re laughing.

Bruins vs Lightning Props

• Nikita Kucherov anytime goal (+115 at Sleeper)

My top prop is Kucherov anytime goal at +130. He leads Tampa Bay with 82 points in 48 games, finding twine in 21 different contests this season. Interestingly, seven of those games came on a Sunday night.

At the moment, Kuch is on a six-game scoring streak with 13 points during that run. With Boston missing their top two centers, Kucherov should find softer matchups at even strength and on the powerplay.

• David Pastrnak Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+100 at BetMGM)

When the Bruins are underdogs, they lean entirely on Pastrnak to generate offense. He’s fired over 3.5 shots in three of his last four as an underdog, averaging 4.25 shots in those games.

Boston will likely be chasing this one, forcing Pasta to shoot from everywhere. Outdoor ice often simplifies the game plan to “get pucks on net,” which suits his style.

• Under 6.0 Goals (-115 at Bet365)

Wrapping up our Lightning Bruins props is the Under bet. These are two good goalies playing behind structured defenses in cold, windy weather. Vasilevskiy has allowed more than two goals just once in his last 10 starts, and Tampa is averaging 1.6 goals against in that stretch.

Factor in the 15-20 mph crosswinds that’ll disrupt precision passing, and the Under cashing in four of the past five meetings in Tampa, and there’s no reason to buck the trend. 93% of bets are hammering the over, but the best bet is fading the public.

Bruins vs Lightning Odds

The Bolts opened around -190 in the Stadium Series odds and have been bet up to -220, with sharp money hammering the home side. At that price, Tampa’s implied win probability sits around 68.7%.

That price is steep for an outdoor game where conditions act as equalizers. Boston at +180 carries 35.7% implied probability, but their defensive structure and Swayman’s elite goaltending keep them in games.

Boston is getting +1.5 goals on the puckline at -150 odds, while the total is set at 6.0 goals with the Under slightly favored at -115.

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Bruins vs Lightning Injury News

The Bruins are decimated down the middle. Top centers Lindholm and Zacha did not travel to Tampa, forcing Fraser Minten into the 1C role. Minten has been solid with 16 points and a plus-15 rating over his last 15 games, but matching up against Tampa’s Anthony Cirelli without established centers is a tough ask.

Matt Poitras stepped in Thursday against Philadelphia in his first game this season. Over 11 minutes of ice time, the 21-year-old posted five shots while centering the fourth line.

Tampa gets a boost with Hedman returning after elbow surgery kept him out since Dec. 9. The captain practiced Saturday and called the outdoor game “a big motivation” for his recovery. The Bolts went 17-3-2 without him, but he still quarterbacks their power play.