Bautista vs Oliveira Odds, Prediction & Tale of the Tape for UFC Vegas 113

• Mario Bautista (-145) faces Vinicius Oliveira (+120) in the UFC Vegas 113 main event tonight
• Bautista looks to bounce back after his eight-fight win streak was snapped by Umar Nurmagomedov
• Check out our Bautista vs Oliveira odds, prediction and tale of the tape below

The bantamweight division stays busy. Mario Bautista and Vinicius “Lok Dog” Oliveira headline UFC Vegas 113 tonight at the newly renovated Meta Apex in Las Vegas, and this one has real ranking implications.

Bautista is ranked 9th and coming off a decision loss to Umar Nurmagomedov. Oliveira is 11th and undefeated in the UFC at 4-0. A win for either guy could push them toward the top five in a division that’s wide open after Petr Yan beat Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 323.

Here’s everything you need to know about the Bautista vs Oliveira odds, my prediction, and how to watch UFC Vegas 113.

Bautista vs Oliveira Prediction

I’m taking Mario Bautista to win this fight, and I think there’s value on him getting a late finish.

Oliveira is dangerous early. He’s got 16 knockouts in 23 wins and that flying knee KO over Bernardo Sopaj in his UFC debut showed what he can do when he lands clean. But there’s a pattern in his fights that works against him here. His last three opponents all had cardio issues. Kyler Phillips fades after a round. Said Nurmagomedov gasses in every fight. Ricky Simon slowed down against him too. Oliveira looked good late in those fights because his opponents were already wilting.

Bautista doesn’t wilt. This guy is a cardio machine who throws volume for 25 minutes without slowing down. He lands 5.58 significant strikes per minute and never takes his foot off the gas. Against Umar Nurmagomedov, he absorbed 11 takedowns and still came out swinging in the third round. That kind of conditioning is rare at bantamweight.

The other factor here is that Oliveira cuts 30 pounds to make 135. That muscular frame looks impressive, but it costs energy. By round four, I expect him to be favoring his lead leg from Bautista’s kicks and sucking wind. That’s when Bautista takes over.

Bautista said at media day that he’s looking for the finish. “I think he’s lost like three times by knockout,” Bautista said. “He’s a live-by-the-sword-and-die-by-the-sword type of guy. I’m definitely looking for that.” All three of Oliveira’s career losses came by KO. If he starts fading in the championship rounds, Bautista has the skills to put him away.

• Bautista vs Oliveira Pick: Mario Bautista by TKO (Late)

Bautista vs Oliveira Odds

Bautista at -145 works out to about 59% implied probability. Not a ton of value on the moneyline.

The finish props are more interesting. Bautista by KO/TKO at +450 is where I’d look if you think Oliveira fades late. Oliveira by KO/TKO at +225 is the play if you believe in his early power. Distance at +130 feels about right since both guys have gone the full three rounds in their recent fights.

Odds as of February 7th via BetMGM. Grab a BetMGM bonus code for UFC Vegas 113 or browse UFC betting apps.

Bautista vs Oliveira Tale of the Tape

Both guys fight out of a switch stance and throw similar volume. The big difference is competition faced. Bautista has been in there with Umar Nurmagomedov, Jose Aldo, Patchy Mix, and Ricky Simon. Oliveira’s best wins are Kyler Phillips and Said Nurmagomedov. This is a step up for the Brazilian.

Mario Bautista Recent Fights

• Loss to Umar Nurmagomedov – Unanimous Decision (Oct 2025)
• Win over Patchy Mix – Unanimous Decision (Jun 2025)
• Win over Jose Aldo – Split Decision (Mar 2025)
• Win over Ricky Simon – Unanimous Decision (Nov 2024)

Vinicius Oliveira Recent Fights

• Win over Kyler Phillips – Unanimous Decision (Oct 2025)
• Win over Said Nurmagomedov – Unanimous Decision (Jun 2025)
• Win over Ricky Simon – Unanimous Decision (Feb 2025)
• Win over Bernardo Sopaj – KO (Oct 2024)

How to Watch UFC Vegas 113

UFC Vegas 113 airs exclusively on Paramount+ with no traditional pay-per-view. The main card starts at 5 pm ET with Bautista vs Oliveira expected around 8:15 pm ET. Prelims kick off at 2 pm ET.

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO