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Super Bowl First Quarter Prediction: Lock This Expert Prop Pick Before Kickoff
By Brady Trettenero in NFL News
Published:
- FanDuel has the first quarter total at 8.5 while most books sit at 7.5
- Seattle and New England rank 1st and 4th in scoring defense this season
- See Super Bowl first quarter prediction and expert prop pick for Patriots vs Seahawks below
The Seahawks and Patriots kick off Super Bowl 60 in just over an hour, and if you’re looking for a last-minute prop, I’ve got one.
Most books have the first quarter total at 7.5, but FanDuel is sitting at 8.5. That extra point matters more than you’d think, and I’ll explain why below.
Here’s my Super Bowl first quarter prediction for Patriots vs Seahawks to lock in before kickoff.
Super Bowl First Quarter Prediction
- Pick: First Quarter Under 8.5 (-134 at FanDuel)
The first quarter under 8.5 is one of my favorite Super Bowl props. Vegas priced this low for a reason. The public sees a 45.5 game total and thinks a touchdown plus a field goal is easy money, but Super Bowl first quarters don’t work that way.
Over the last 19 years, Super Bowl losers have averaged only 2.2 first-quarter points, way down from their 5.7 regular-season average. Even winners average just 4.7 first-quarter points. The stage slows everyone down, and that’s before we even get to these two defenses.
The most common first quarter outcomes in recent Super Bowls are 0, 7, and 10 combined points. “Both teams to score in the first quarter: NO” is sitting at -175 elsewhere, which tells you the market expects at most one team to put points up early. That lines up with the under.
This matchup features the #1 and #4 scoring defenses in the NFL. Seattle allowed just 17.2 points per game during the regular season, and that dropped to 16.5 in the playoffs. New England finished at 18.8 points allowed, but in the postseason, that number fell to 8.7 points per game. Whatever the Patriots defense has been doing in the playoffs, it’s working.
First Quarter Scoring Stats
Those regular season averages look high, but context matters. New England’s playoff first quarters tell a different story: 0-0 against the Chargers, 10 total against the Texans, and 7 total against the Broncos. When the stakes go up, both teams tighten up. Seattle allowed just 2.84 first quarter points per game this season, and that won’t change on the biggest stage.
Drake Maye and Sam Darnold are both making their first Super Bowl start. The last 25 years of Super Bowl football have been dominated by Brady, Manning, and Mahomes. I expect conservative play as both teams feel each other out early.
Both coaching staffs want to establish the ground game, which eats clock and limits possessions. Seattle led the NFL in rush percentage at 48.7%. New England averaged 128.9 rushing yards per game. Fewer possessions means fewer chances to score.
Super Bowl first quarters average 8.29 combined points across 59 games. Thirty Super Bowls (50.8%) finished with 8 or fewer first quarter points, and 10 had completely scoreless opening frames. When the spread is tight like this one, teams play even more conservatively early.
One more thing: Josh McDaniels and Tom Brady never scored a first quarter touchdown in nine Super Bowls together. If Brady couldn’t get it done in the opening frame under McDaniels, what’s Maye going to do in his first crack at it?
Seahawks vs Patriots First Quarter Odds
Odds as of February 8 via FanDuel. New customers can claim the FanDuel promo code for up to $300 in bonus bets.
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The first quarter spread is basically a pick’em with Seattle at -0.5. The 1Q total at FanDuel sits at 8.5 with the under juiced to -134, while most books have 7.5 at standard -110 juice. That full point of cushion is worth the extra price.
The first quarter under 8.5 is my favorite Super Bowl prop. Two top-five defenses, run-first game plans, and two quarterbacks making their first Super Bowl start. The scoring will come, just not in the opening 15 minutes. Lock this pick in before kickoff.
For more plays, check out our Weirdest Super Bowl Bets and NFL betting trends.
Brady Trettenero
Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
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