Arizona vs Kansas Predictions & Picks – Will Jayhawks Hand Wildcats First Loss?

• Undefeated Arizona is a rare road favorite at Kansas
• Expert analysis targets a defensive slugfest Monday
• We analyze No. 1 Arizona at No. 9 Kansas and offer expert betting advice

No. 1 Arizona puts its perfect record on the line tonight at No. 9 Kansas. The top-10 showdown tips off at 9 pm, ET (ESPN).

Arizona (23-0, 10-0 Big 12) has wins over six teams that were ranked at tip-off. The Wildcats are a consensus 2.5-point road favorite tonight.

Kansas (18-5, 8-2 Big 12) has won seven consecutive games, including three against teams that were ranked inside the top 15 at the time.

The betting market has positioned the Wildcats as slight road favorites, creating a rare scenario where the Jayhawks are a home underdog for just the third time this season. Kansas is 1-1 ATS in those games.

We analyze Arizona at Kansas and offer expert betting advice.

Arizona vs Kansas Predictions & Best Bets

Allen Fieldhouse is historically one of the most difficult venues for visiting teams, but top-ranked Arizona is playing well enough to negate any typical home-court advantage. With oddsmakers setting a tight line, the value lies in backing the more complete, undefeated roster to silence the crowd.

The Spread: Arizona -2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

While fading Kansas at home is historically a perilous betting strategy, Arizona’s statistical dominance in the paint makes the Wildcats the calculated play in this spot. The Wildcats possess a significant size and rebounding advantage that Kansas might struggle to match over a full 40 minutes.

The critical mismatch is on the glass. Arizona features two elite rebounders in Tobe Awaka (9.9 rebounds per game) and the 7-foot-2 Motiejus Krivas (8.35 rebounds and 1.78 blocks). While Kansas has a paint anchor in Flory Bidunga (8.9 rebounds per game), he lacks the supporting cast on the interior to neutralize Arizona’s two-headed monster.

Arizona is 5-0 ATS and SU against Top-25 ranked opponents this season, proving its metrics hold up against elite competition. If Awaka and Krivas can generate second-chance points near their season averages, Arizona should cover this short number.

Prediction: Arizona 77, Kansas 72

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Over/Under: Under 153.0 (-110) at Bet365

Defensive metrics suggest a grind-it-out affair in Lawrence. This matchup features the Big 12’s premier rim protectors, which naturally depresses scoring efficiency in the paint and forces opponents into lower-percentage jump shots.

Flory Bidunga has been a revelation for the Jayhawks defensively, leading the league with 2.83 blocks per game and altering countless other attempts. On the other side, Arizona’s Krivas and Awaka combine for over 2.5 blocks per contest. With rim protection this elite, easy layups will be nonexistent. Market trends also favor the Under; in this marquee matchup, 84.89% of all wagers are currently backing a low-scoring outcome as possessions become more valued in the final ten minutes.

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Best Player Prop: Flory Bidunga Over 1.5 Blocks (-140 at FanDuel)

The best value on the board is backing the Big 12’s leading shot-blocker to execute his primary role. Flory Bidunga has accumulated 65 total blocks this season, averaging nearly three rejections per game. Coming off a career-high performance against Utah where he swatted seven shots, his confidence is peaking.

Facing an Arizona team that relies heavily on interior scoring from Koa Peat (55.8% FG) and Brayden Burries driving the lane, Bidunga will have ample opportunities to contest shots at the rim. Expect him to log heavy minutes and secure at least two blocks.

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Note: Odds are subject to change.

Public Betting Data: Wildcats and Under Drawing Massive Support

The college basketball public betting market for Monday night’s marquee matchup reveals a rare level of consensus, with bettors firmly backing the road favorite and anticipating a defensive struggle. Typically, large wagers fading the popular opinion signal a “Sharp vs. Public” divide, but here, both ticket count and handle are moving in unison.

Spread & Moneyline: Ignoring the Phog

The betting public is showing little hesitation in fading the Jayhawks at home. According to the latest splits, 73.11% of spread tickets are on Arizona. More important, the conviction from larger bettors is even stronger, with 77.01% of the handle backing the Wildcats to cover. The Moneyline market tells an even more drastic story of confidence in the road team. A staggering 87.26% of the money is on Arizona to win outright, compared to just 12.74% on Kansas. This indicates that bettors do not view the Jayhawks’ home-court advantage as a significant enough factor to derail Arizona’s perfect season.

• Spread Money: 77.01% on Arizona / 22.99% on Kansas
• Moneyline Money: 87.26% on Arizona / 12.74% on Kansas

Total: Expecting a Defensive Battle

While the public often gravitates toward “Over” bets in primetime games featuring star power, this matchup is seeing lopsided action on the “Under.” This aligns perfectly with the expert prediction of a lower-scoring, physical conference battle.

The splits show that 84.89% of all wagers on the total are on the Under, and the money follows suit with 77.48% of the handle backing a low-scoring affair. With elite rim protection on both sides of the floor, the market clearly respects the defensive metrics over the offensive highlights.

• Total Money: 77.48% on Under / 22.52% on Over

Arizona vs Kansas Stats Comparison

Arizona vs Kansas Odds

Here are the latest betting odds for Monday night’s Big 12 matchup at Allen Fieldhouse:

• Moneyline: Arizona -150 | Kansas +125
• Point Spread: Arizona -2.5 (-110) | Kansas +2.5 (-109)
• Total Points: Over 151.5 (-113) | Under 151.5 (-107)

Odds as of February 09, 2026, from FanDuel.

Normalized Probabilities

By removing the sportsbook’s vigorish (or “juice”), we can calculate the implied win probability for each team based on the consensus lines:

• Arizona Win Probability: 57.45%
• Kansas Win Probability: 42.55%

Moneyline Payouts

For bettors looking to wager on the outright winner, here is the potential return on a standard $20 bet:

• Betting on Arizona (-150): A $20 wager on the Wildcats would yield $13.33 in profit, for a total payout of $33.33.
• Betting on Kansas (+125): A $20 wager on the Jayhawks would yield $25.00 in profit, for a total payout of $45.00.