How to Bet UConn vs Butler on TNT – Best Picks & Predictions

• No. 6 UConn beat Butler 79-60 in December
• Offensive efficiency metrics and a distinct paint advantage suggest the Huskies will cover the double-digit spread
• Our deep-dive analysis reveals the best best bets for UConn at Butler

No. 6 UConn heads to famed Hinkle Fieldhouse tonight to face Butler. Tip-off is set for 7:30 pm, ET (TNT).

The Huskies (22-2, 12-1) are looking to sweep the season series and rebound after St. John’s snapped their 18-game winning streak. UConn beat Butler 79-60 in their Big East opener.

Butler (13-11, 4-9 Big East) is desperate to halt a four-game losing skid, exacerbated by the season-ending injury to freshman guard Azavier Robinson.

UConn is an 11.5-point favorite. Our analysis dives into the matchup and finds the best bets for UConn at Butler.

UConn vs Butler Best Bets

With UConn motivated to deliver a “championship response” following their recent loss and Butler struggling to find defensive consistency, the value leans heavily toward the visitors.

Pick: UConn Huskies -11.5 (-112 at Bet365)

Laying double digits on the road in the Big East typically requires a significant mismatch, and the metrics confirm one exists in the paint. UConn features Tarris Reed Jr., a Kareem Abdul-Jabbar Award candidate, who is averaging 14.0 points and 7.7 rebounds per game.

Butler lacks the necessary rim protection to stifle Reed or contain forward Alex Karaban (13.5 PPG), who effectively spaces the floor. The Bulldogs’ defensive rotation has been further compromised by injuries, and while Michael Ajayi fights valiantly on the boards (11.6 RPG), he cannot anchor the defense alone. Situational trends support this angle: UConn boasts a 7-1 record on the road this season (87.5% win rate), demonstrating an ability to execute in hostile environments that far exceeds the 60% threshold we look for in road favorites. Expect the Huskies to exploit Butler’s depleted backcourt and cover this number.

BET365
SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $5 & Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose or a First Bet Safety Net Up to $1,000!

Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL OR TEXT 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ/CO/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/MO/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only (18+ KY).

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: DIME365

CODE: DIME365

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $5
GET $150

WIN OR LOSE!

CLAIM OFFER

Pick: Over 144.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

The teams combined for 139 points in the first game. This total is set at 144.5, and the pace analytics point toward a high-scoring affair. Despite their losing streak, Butler remains a capable offensive unit, averaging 81.1 points per game. Finley Bizjack, the Big East’s second-leading scorer (17.9 PPG), provides the perimeter firepower necessary to keep the scoreboard moving, especially at home where shooters tend to be more comfortable.

Conversely, UConn’s offense scores at all three levels. With Solo Ball and Karaban stretching the defense to open lanes for Reed, the Huskies should have little trouble scoring against a Butler defense allowing 77.2 points per contest. When a top-tier offense meets a sub-par defense that prefers a fast tempo, the Over becomes the sharp play.

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

Best Prop Bet

Pick: UConn Team Total Over 78.5 (-113 at FanDuel)

This prop offers arguably the highest floor on the board. The Huskies feature a balanced “scoring by committee” approach with three players averaging over 13.5 points per game. UConn’s offensive efficiency is elite, highlighted by Reed’s 0.636 True Shooting percentage. Butler’s defense, which surrenders nearly 80 points per game against high-caliber opponents, will likely be forced to collapse inside, leaving shooters like Solo Ball open for high-percentage looks. UConn needs to maintain intensity to secure seeding, so expect them to push for 80+ points regardless of the game script.

FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet & Get Up To $1,000 in Bonus Bets!

Offer only available in IN, VA. Must be 21+. T&C Apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

BET & GET
UP TO $1,000

BET NOW

Public Betting Data

The college basketball public betting sentiment for this matchup at Hinkle Fieldhouse is overwhelmingly one-sided, reflecting a market that has lost faith in Butler’s ability to compete with the conference elite.

Moneyline Consensus

Confidence in the road favorite has reached near-absolute levels. Current betting splits from DraftKings indicate that 99.58% of the money is backing UConn to win outright, supported by 97.79% of the total tickets. This extreme consensus suggests the public views Butler’s four-game skid and injury issues as insurmountable hurdles against a top-10 opponent.

Total Splits

The expectation for points is equally strong. The Over has attracted 71.01% of the handle and 70.4% of the bets, aligning with the statistical view that UConn’s efficient scoring and Butler’s defensive porosity will drive the final score past 144.5.

Sharp vs. Public Analysis

There is no divergence between “Pros and Joes.” In many scenarios, a high ticket count (public) on one side met with a high money percentage (sharps) on the other signals a trap. However, in this case, both casual bettors and high-volume players are aligned. The lockstep movement on UConn and the Over validates the analysis that the talent gap is simply too wide to ignore.

UConn vs. Butler Tale of Tape

UConn vs Butler Odds

Below are the current consensus odds for Wednesday’s game at Hinkle Fieldhouse:

• Moneyline: UConn -826 | Butler +550
• Spread: UConn -11.5 (-112) | Butler +11.5 (-108)
• Total: Over 144.5 (-112) | Under 144.5 (-108)

Odds as of February 11, 2026, at 12:41 PM EST from ESPN Bet.

The market has moved significantly in UConn’s favor, shifting from an opener of -10.5 to -11.5. This line movement tracks with the heavy betting volume on the Huskies and the news of Butler’s injury woes. The total holds steady at 144.5, balancing UConn’s defensive prowess against the expected high tempo.

Implied Probabilities

Removing the vigorish (vig) provides the true implied win probabilities:

• UConn Huskies: 85.3%
• Butler Bulldogs: 14.7%

Potential Payouts

For bettors analyzing the Moneyline value on a standard $20 wager:

• A $20 bet on UConn (-826) returns a profit of just $2.42, for a total payout of $22.42.
• A $20 bet on Butler (+550) returns a profit of $110.00, for a total payout of $130.00.