Early NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds – Who’s the Favorite?

• Early odds have been posted on which player will win NFL defensive player of the year this coming season
• Myles Garrett will be going for his third award in the last four years
• See the players in contention for DPOY and my prediction for who might win below

Another NFL season has come and gone, with the Seattle Seahawks defeating the New England Patriots 29-13 to win Super Bowl LX. It’s never too early to look ahead to the upcoming campaign, with the Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams co-favorites in the Super Bowl odds.

It’s also interesting to look ahead and see if there’s any value in nabbing a player that could take the crown in the NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds, with Myles Garrett winning two of the last three years.

The graph below shows the current NFL DPOY odds at prediction site Kalshi.

Prediction Markets

NFL Defensive Player of the Year

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Micah Parsons

24.0%

Myles Garrett

21.0%

Will Anderson Jr.

17.0%

Christian Gonzalez

9.0%

Fred Warner

4.0%

Devin Lloyd

0.0%

Rashan Gary

0.0%

Aidan Hutchinson

0.0%

T.J. Watt

0.0%

Maxx Crosby

0.0%

Predict

Odds in table from Kalshi at 12:25 pm ET, Feb 13th.

With the NFL season still months away, the probabilities of these players to take DPOY will be shifting constantly. Currently Micah Parsons (24.0%) is the favorite to shake off his torn ACL to win the award, followed by Myles Garrett to get it done yet again. That would point to three victories in the last four attempts, which isn’t that unprecedented, with Aaron Donald and J.J. Watt both doing it in recent years.

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Last 15 Defensive Player Of Year Winners

Will Anderson Jr, who is coming off a career-high twelve sacks for the Texans is in the mix, along with the Lions’ Aidan Hutchinson and the Patriots fantastic cornerback Christian Gonzalez. As of this posting, Hutchinson went from 0% to 10% just within the last few minutes. The NFL MVP odds aren’t bullish on any defensive player claiming it, with all offensive players doing so since Lawrence Taylor snagged it as a defensive player way back in 1986.

Myles Garrett Searching For Another Defensive Player Of Year Award

This past season Myles Garrett took his already brilliant NFL career to the next level, registering 23 sacks, which broke Michael Strahan (2001) and T.J. Watt’s (2021) record of 22.5 QB takedowns. It was his second DPOY award in the last three campaigns, but this time he had seven more sacks than his previous career highs set in 2021 and 2022.

He was able to record this prestigious award with defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz at the helm, but he’s left the team after reportedly being unhappy at being passed over as a Head Coach candidate. Can Garrett have another monster season without the DC that got him his two DPOY honors?

Aidan Hutchinson Looking For First DPOY Award

If I’m looking to spot some value on who could unseat Garrett to take the DPOY, I have my eyes set on Lions star Aidan Hutchinson. In three of his four NFL years, he’s played all 17 games, and this past season racked up a career-high 14.5 sacks. If the Lions can get back to their winning ways and shake off a rather uneven 2025 (9-8), he could find himself in contention to be best defensive player for 2026.

I’d hesitate to go all-in with Micah Parsons, given that he’s coming off a major injury (ACL tear), and did it in December, suggesting he might not be back to full peak performance early in the campaign. His high water mark is 14 sacks in 2023, though he has 12.5 in his first year with Green Bay before missing the final three contests.

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