Neal vs Medic Prediction, Odds & Tale of the Tape for UFC Houston

• Geoff Neal (-225) faces Uros Medic (+185) in the UFC Houston co-main event on February 21
• Neal looks to bounce back after getting knocked out by Carlos Prates in his last fight
• Check out our Neal vs Medic prediction, odds and tale of the tape below

The UFC Houston co-main event is a welterweight striker vs striker battle between Geoff Neal and Uros Medic. Neal is a Houston native fighting at the Toyota Center, while Medic stepped in on short notice after Kevin Holland pulled out.

Both guys can crack. Neal has 10 knockouts in 16 wins, while Medic has finished all 12 of his career victories with 10 coming by KO. His last three fights lasted a combined 2:37. Someone is getting hurt early.

Here are my Neal vs Medic prediction, the odds, and the tale of the tape for the UFC Houston co-main event.

Neal vs Medic Prediction

I’m taking Geoff Neal by knockout.

Medic is dangerous but hittable. He comes out guns blazing and throws full-power shots from the opening bell, which works great when he catches guys cold. The problem is he leaves his head on the center line and gets rocked frequently, even in wins. All three of his career losses came by finish, with two by knockout. Soriano put him away in April, and Jalin Turner did the same back at lightweight.

Neal has the harder hands, faster hands, and a four-inch reach advantage. He’s also fought much better competition, with his last three losses coming against Carlos Prates, Ian Garry, and Shavkat Rakhmonov. That’s three top-five welterweights. Medic’s best wins are Muslim Salikhov and Matthew Semelsberger. There’s a gap in resume quality.

Durability is the difference. Neal took punishment from Rakhmonov for four rounds and kept coming, and he’s been finished once in the last decade. Medic crumbles when the finish doesn’t come early. Seven of his last 10 fights ended in round one, including his losses. He’s never seen a third round in victory or defeat.

If Neal can survive the first few minutes and make this a technical fight, he should take over. I expect him to use footwork early, let Medic burn energy, and then put him away in the second round.

• Neal vs Medic Pick: Geoff Neal by KO/TKO (-160 at Caesars)

Neal vs Medic Odds

Neal at -225 works out to about 69% implied probability. The fight ending by KO/TKO is -530, which tells you oddsmakers don’t expect this to see round three. Neal by knockout at -160 is where I’m looking. The over 1.5 at +127 has some value if you think Neal weathers the early storm and finishes him in round two.

Medic by KO at +225 is the upset angle if you believe in his early power. The fight going to distance is +400, which makes sense given neither guy wants to grind out decisions. Neal has gone to the scorecards just twice in his last eight fights.

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Neal vs Medic Tale of the Tape

The average fight time tells you everything. Neal goes almost 10 minutes per fight. Medic goes just over four. This is a patient counter striker against a kill-or-be-killed finisher.

Both guys are southpaws, and Medic has historically struggled against fellow lefties. He got finished by Soriano and Turner when fighting same-stance opponents. Neal’s 87% takedown defense won’t matter much since neither guy wants to wrestle, but it’s another edge in his favor if Medic gets desperate late.

Geoff Neal Recent Fights

• Loss to Carlos Prates – KO R1 (Aug 2025)
• Win over Rafael dos Anjos – TKO R1 (Mar 2025)
• Loss to Ian Garry – Decision (Nov 2024)
• Loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov – Submission R4 (Jun 2024)

Uros Medic Recent Fights

• Win over Muslim Salikhov – TKO R1 (Nov 2025)
• Win over Gilbert Urbina – KO R1 (Aug 2025)
• Loss to Punahele Soriano – KO R1 (Apr 2025)
• Win over Matthew Semelsberger – KO R1 (Jan 2025)

How to Watch UFC Houston

UFC Houston airs on Paramount+ with no traditional pay-per-view. The main card starts at 9 pm ET, with Neal vs Medic expected around 10:15 pm ET as the co-main event. Prelims begin at 7 pm ET and early prelims at 5 pm ET.