Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction, Odds & Champions League Picks: Over 2.5 Goals the Play at Gewiss Stadium
By Sascha Paruk in Soccer News
Published:
- Atalanta is the +115 home favorite over Dortmund on Wednesday at Gewiss Stadium
- The market heavily favors a high-scoring affair due to significant defensive absences on both sides
- See the best Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund picks and goalscorer props to bet on Feb 25
The Champions League knockout continues at Gewiss Stadium this Wednesday as Atalanta hosts Borussia Dortmund in a second-leg clash. Kickoff is set for 12:45 pm ET on February 25. The Italian side faces a steep hill to climb after dropping the first leg 2-0, while Niko Kovac’s Dortmund squad arrives in Bergamo looking to protect that lead despite a defensive injury crisis.
Both clubs struggled during the League Phase – finishing 15th and 17th respectively – but the metrics suggest this elimination game will be decided by who can exploit the other’s defensive frailty. With Nico Schlotterbeck missing from the German backline and Charles De Ketelaere out for the hosts, the handicapping angle shifts squarely toward offensive production.
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Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta Odds
Atalanta is the home favorite, priced at a market-best +115 at Caesars and FanDuel. The longest odds on a Borussia Dortmund victory are +215 at DraftKings. The longest odds on a full-time draw are +290 at bet365.
The total-goals market shows over 2.5 juiced heavily to -150 (best odds at theScore and bet365), while bettors can find under 2.5 at +125 at Caesars.
Odds as of February 25. Claim theScore Bet promo code and get a bonus to use on today’s UCL games.
Prediction site Kalshi also has contracts available for Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund, and the Kalshi prices offer a higher payout on both an Atalanta win and a draw.
Atalanta to win is currently trading 45¢, meaning bettors would profit 55¢ on every contract purchased at that price, which is equivalent to a +122 moneyline. The draw is trading at 25¢, which is equivalent to a +300 moneyline. Dortmund is only trading at 32¢, equal to a +213 moneyline.
Readers that don’t currently have an account at Kalshi can click the graphic above to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code.
Line Movement
We have seen distinct sharp movement since the lines opened. Atalanta was initially pegged as a +100 favorite, but that price has faded to +115, while Dortmund has shortened from +240 to +215. This suggests early money is fading the Italian side’s ability to win cleanly.
However, the total has seen one-way traffic; over 2.5 opened at -140 and has been steamed up to -155, confirming the market’s consensus on a high-scoring game.
Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction, Expert Picks & Best Bets
This game features a desperate home team pushing against a depleted visiting defense. Both managers – Atalanta’s Raffaele Palladino and Dortmund’s Niko Kovac – employ systems that can leave their backlines exposed, and the statistical trends support an aggressive betting approach.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals (-150 at theScore)
The metrics here are undeniable. While playoff soccer can often be tight, the defensive profiles of these two specific squads suggest the opposite.
- Dortmund’s Defensive Regression: The visitors have conceded 17 goals in nine matches, averaging nearly 1.9 goals allowed per game. With key defenders injured, their xGA (expected goals against) is likely to spike.
- Atalanta’s Vulnerability: The hosts have allowed 12 goals in nine matches, failing to consistently keep clean sheets even at home.
- Situational Trend: Prior to the first leg, Borussia Dortmund had conceded two or more goals in five of their last six Champions League fixtures.
The combination of Dortmund’s 1.9 GA/game average and Atalanta’s need to chase a two-goal deficit creates a perfect storm for the Over.
Moneyline Prediction: Atalanta to Win (+115 at Caesars)
With the line moving toward Dortmund, the value has increased on the home side to win the match.
Atalanta’s duo of Marten De Roon and Ederson provides a stability advantage over Dortmund’s pivot, which is missing Emre Can.
The first leg at Signal Iduna Park ended 2-0 for Dortmund, but the underlying box score paints a different picture of the matchup.
Atalanta actually controlled possession (52%) and generated more shots on target (3 vs 2) in the first leg. Dortmund was hyper-efficient, scoring twice on two shots on target – a rate that is statistically unsustainable. This supports my thesis that Atalanta can dictate terms at home.
Top Goalscorer Prop: Gianluca Scamacca (+135)
With Charles De Ketelaere out, the offensive funnel narrows significantly toward Gianluca Scamacca. He is the primary target man and penalty threat. The pricing discrepancy here is massive: FanDuel has this prop at +110, while BetMGM offers +135.
The +135 odds at BetMGM carries a 42.6% implied probability, which is great value against a Dortmund defense allowing nearly two goals per game.
Dortmund vs Atalanta Public-Betting Splits
The betting handle reveals a sharp divide between the public perception and the total goals market.
- Moneyline: Dortmund is attracting 53.1% of the handle compared to just 39.5% for Atalanta.
- Total: The public is hammering the over, with 95.6% of the money backing 3+ goals.
The heavy money on Dortmund suggests the public is overreacting to the 2-0 first leg result. The contrarian value lies with Atalanta winning the match.
Following the steam on the over is the better move given the injury news.
Injury Reports for Atalanta vs Dortmund (Second Leg)
The injury report is the single biggest factor influencing the lines for this match.
Borussia Dortmund
- Nico Schlotterbeck (Defender): Missing. A massive blow to the central defense. His absence removes their best ball-playing defender and aerial presence.
- Niklas Süle (Defender): Missing. Leaves Dortmund without their primary backup center-back option.
- Emre Can (Midfielder): Missing. The captain’s absence exposes the backline to direct attacks through the middle.
Atalanta
- Charles De Ketelaere (Forward): Missing. A significant loss of creativity in the half-spaces.
- Giacomo Raspadori (Forward): Missing. Reduces bench options for late-game offensive adjustments.
The loss of Schlotterbeck and Can simultaneously cripples Dortmund’s ability to park the bus, further validating the expectation of a high-scoring Atalanta win.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
