Louisville vs Clemson Predictions, Picks & Betting Splits (Feb 28)

• No. 24 Louisville is a slight road favorite against struggling Clemson
• Clemson has lost four in a row but is 11-3 at home
• Our analysis reveals the best bets for Louisville at Clemson today

Since appearing in the AP Poll and rising to No. 18 in mid-February, the wheels have fallen off for Clemson.

The Tigers (20-8, 10-5) have lost four in a row as we race toward the ACC Tournament.

Today, they’ll try to stop the bleeding at home against No. 24 Louisville (20-8, 9-6). Tip-off is set for 2 pm, ET, with the national broadcast airing on ESPN2.

Louisville is a small road favorite. It’s worth noting that the Cardinals have struggled in this spot — going 2-5 ATS as a road favorite. Caveat: This spread of 1.5 points represents a mere bucket.

With postseason implications heavily in play, this matchup presents a classic conflict between a high-volume perimeter attack and a desperate home team relying on interior efficiency. Let’s dive in and identify the best bets for Louisville at Clemson on Feb. 28.

Louisville vs Clemson Prediction & Best Bets

Best Bet: Louisville -1.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Louisville presents value as a short road favorite due to a massive disparity in backcourt production. The Cardinals feature a dynamic guard duo that the Tigers lack the personnel to contain. Mikel Brown Jr. leads the charge with 18.9 points per game and 3.15 assists, while backcourt mate Ryan Conwell adds 18.5 points per game.

Clemson is searching for answers after four straight defeats. While forward RJ Godfrey has been efficient — posting 11.5 points per game on 63.3% shooting — the Tigers lack a perimeter creator who can match Louisville’s scoring bursts. The Cardinals’ ability to space the floor, led by Conwell’s 257 three-point attempts this season, should allow them to dictate the tempo and exploit a Clemson defense that has struggled to close out games recently.

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Total Prediction: Over 146.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

The statistical profile favors a high-possession game that eclipses the total. Louisville’s offensive philosophy is predicated on volume perimeter shooting; Ryan Conwell alone launches 9.52 three-point attempts per game. When the Cardinals control the pace, they force opponents into a shootout.

Clemson has the tools to contribute to the total, specifically inside the arc. RJ Godfrey converts 65.1% of his two-point attempts, and Carter Welling (10.3 PPG) provides additional interior scoring. While Louisville pushes the tempo, its defense allows 72.0 points per game, offering the Tigers ample opportunities to score in the paint. The combination of Louisville’s three-point barrage and Clemson’s high-percentage interior looks supports the Over.

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Public Betting Trends

The college basketball public betting market has taken a decisive stance on this matchup, with early action heavily favoring the road team. The splits reveal a high degree of confidence in the Cardinals from both public and larger-volume bettors.

• Spread & Moneyline: Louisville is commanding 72.14% of spread tickets and an overwhelming 79.18% of the spread handle. The moneyline splits are even more drastic, with 90.71% of the money backing a Cardinals victory despite accounting for 73.9% of the bets. Conversely, Clemson has attracted just 9.29% of the moneyline handle.
• Total: The public anticipates points, with 66.43% of the money on the Over, aligning with the expectation of a pace-driven game.
• Market Analysis: There is no “Sharp vs. Public” divide here; the consensus is unified. The heavy handle percentage on Louisville suggests that sophisticated money agrees with the public sentiment that the Tigers’ losing streak will continue.

Louisville at Clemson Stats Comparison

The defining mismatch is Louisville’s perimeter aggression against Clemson’s interior shell. Louisville’s Ryan Conwell (35.0% 3P on 9.5 attempts/game) and Isaac McKneely (39.2% 3P) provide elite spacing that stretches defenses horizontally. Clemson’s primary perimeter option, Jestin Porter, attempts significantly fewer threes (5.36/game) at a lower efficiency (33.3%).

To win, Clemson must dominate the glass and control the paint. RJ Godfrey (63.3% FG) is elite near the rim, but the battle for tempo rests on rebounding. If Clemson’s Carter Welling (1.61 ORPG) can generate second chances, they can slow the game down. However, if Louisville’s Sananda Fru (6.43 RPG) secures defensive boards to ignite the break, the Cardinals’ transition offense becomes difficult to stop.

Louisville vs Clemson Odds

• Moneyline: Louisville -131 | Clemson +109
• Spread: Louisville -1.5 (-110) | Clemson +1.5 (-109)
• Total: Over 146.5 (-111) | Under 146.5 (-109)

Odds as of February 28, 2026.

The oddsmakers have installed the visiting Cardinals as 1.5-point favorites, a line that reflects their superior offensive metrics despite Clemson’s home-court advantage. The total of 146.5 suggests a moderate tempo, balancing Louisville’s desire to run against Clemson’s preferred half-court style.

Implied Winning Probabilities (Vig-Free)
Adjusting for the sportsbook vigorish provides the true win probability for each side:

• Louisville: 54.24%
• Clemson: 45.76%

Betting Payout Scenarios

• A $20 wager on the Louisville moneyline (-131) returns a profit of $15.27 (Total: $35.27).
• A $20 wager on the Clemson moneyline (+109) returns a profit of $21.80 (Total: $41.80).