Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s Predictions, Best Bets & Lines on Feb 28

• Gonzaga is a 2.5-point road favorite over Saint Mary’s in a WCC showdown on Saturday
• The Bulldogs won the first meeting 73-65 with Graham Ike scoring 30 points
• See my Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s predictions, best bets and lines for the Feb. 28 matchup, below

The WCC regular season title is on the line Saturday night as No. 9 Gonzaga (28-2, 16-1 WCC) travels to Moraga to face Saint Mary’s (26-4, 15-2 WCC).

Online sportsbooks have installed the Bulldogs as slim 2.5-point road favorites in the college basketball odds. This marks Gonzaga’s final WCC regular-season game ever, as they’re departing the conference after this season due to realignment.

The action tips off at 10:30 pm ET from McKeon Pavilion with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Here are my Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s predictions, best bets and lines.

Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s Predictions and Picks

ATS Pick: Saint Mary’s +2.5 (-115 at Bet365)

I’m grabbing the points with the Gaels at home. Saint Mary’s is 16-0 at McKeon Pavilion this season, and Gonzaga’s only two losses have both come on the road.

Yes, the Bulldogs won the first meeting 73-65 back on Jan. 31. Graham Ike was the difference with 30 points, and the game featured six ties and six lead changes before GU pulled away late. But that was in Spokane.

Saint Mary’s has gone 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings against Gonzaga. The Gaels also own a better RPI (13) than the Bulldogs (17) and have played a tougher strength of schedule (.5534 vs .5247).

The analytics favor Gonzaga per KenPom, with the Bulldogs holding a 123.2 offensive rating compared to Saint Mary’s 120.6. But the Gaels defense has been stifling lately, allowing just 63.5 points per game and holding opponents to 44.5% on two-pointers over their last 12 games.

Gonzaga has struggled from three in conference play, shooting just 31.9% from deep. They go inside, which plays right into Saint Mary’s defensive strength.

Key Statistical Metrics: Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s

Both teams enter scorching hot. Gonzaga has won six straight, most recently demolishing Portland 89-48. Saint Mary’s rides a seven-game winning streak after beating Santa Clara 86-67.

With the conference title on the line and a perfect home record at stake, expect the Gaels to bring their best effort.

Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s Best Bets

Game-Total Pick: Over 143.5 (-110 at Fanatics)

This matchup features the two most dominant offensive players in the WCC. Graham Ike leads the conference with 19.8 points per game on 56.6% shooting. Paulius Murauskas counters with 18.9 points per game for Saint Mary’s.

The first meeting finished 73-65, which would’ve gone under this number. But that was a defensive grind that neither team will want to replicate with so much on the line.

Saint Mary’s has been scoring at a high clip lately. In their last game against Santa Clara, four players reached double figures: Mikey Lewis (21 pts), Murauskas (16 pts, 11 reb), Harry Wessels (10 pts, 10 reb), and Dillan Shaw (11 pts, 14 reb).

The Gaels are averaging 78.7 points per game, significantly higher than traditional Saint Mary’s teams. They have the offensive firepower to trade baskets with Gonzaga rather than grinding it out.

Best Prop: Graham Ike Over 19.5 Points (-115 at BetMGM)

If there’s one player to target in the prop market, it’s Ike. The Gonzaga forward is the WCC’s efficiency king, leading the conference in both scoring (19.8 PPG) and field goal percentage (56.6%).

He’s already accumulated 516 points this season and dropped 30 in the first meeting. In a game of this magnitude, expect Gonzaga to feed their best player in every high-leverage possession.

Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s Odds

Odds as of Feb. 28. New customers can claim the BetMGM promo code and get a bonus to bet on college basketball.