Purdue vs Ohio State Expert Picks, Predictions & Odds

• The No. 8 Boilermakers look to capitalize on a massive efficiency edge as road favorites against a reeling Buckeyes defense
• Advanced metrics point to the Over 150.5, driven by elite perimeter shooting from Fletcher Loyer and John Mobley Jr
• I identify a high-value angle on Braden Smith’s assist total as he dissects Ohio State’s rotation struggles

The No. 8 Purdue Boilermakers (22-6, 7-2 away, 12-5 B10, 13-15 ATS) head to Columbus this Sunday for a pivotal conference showdown against the Ohio State Buckeyes (17-11, 12-3 home, 9-8 B10, 12-15-1 ATS) at Value City Arena. Tip off is set for 1:30 pm ET with CBS providing the national broadcast and Paramount+ premium offering a streaming broadcast.

The Boilermakers currently sit fifth in the Big Ten but possess the metrics of a national-title contender. Purdue is just half a game behind Illinois in the race for an all-important top-four seed, which comes with a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament. The Buckeyes, meanwhile, are looking to snap a two-game losing skid and polish a postseason resume that currently places them squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble.

Below, find my Purdue vs Ohio State picks and predictions, plus the latest odds and public-betting splits for March 1.

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Purdue vs Ohio State Picks & Best Bets

The smart money aligns with the road favorite in this spot, primarily due to a glaring disparity in offensive execution. Purdue’s attack is engineered by Braden Smith, who leads the conference with 8.8 assists per game while adding 14.8 points of his own. Smith’s ability to manipulate defenses creates high-percentage opportunities for efficient finishers like Oscar Cluff, who is converting a remarkable 71.2% of his field-goal attempts. This level of reliability is difficult for the Buckeyes to match, especially given their recent defensive lapses.

Spread Pick: Purdue -5.5 (55¢/-122 at Kalshi)

While the Buckeyes possess a dangerous scorer in Bruce Thornton (20.0 PPG), Purdue has the defensive structure to make him inefficient. The Boilermakers have secured 22 wins largely through roster balance; shooters like Fletcher Loyer (40.2% from three) stretch the floor, preventing the Buckeyes from packing the paint. Ohio State has dropped two straight games, and asking them to cover a two-possession spread against a top-10 unit with this level of offensive efficiency is a heavy lift.

Expect Purdue to execute down the stretch and cover the number.

At the majority of sportsbooks, Purdue is listed as a 6.5-point favorite, with a little extra juice on the Boilermakers to cover. Bettors can currently find a better price at prediction site Kalshi, which lists Purdue -5.5 at 55¢, which is equivalent to reasonable -122 odds.

Prediction Markets

Purdue vs Ohio St Odds

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Purdue

72%

Ohio St.

29%

Predict

If you don’t have an account at Kalshi yet, you can click the graphic above to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code. The spread and game-total are listed just below the moneyline.

Total Prediction: Over 149.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

The total of 149.5 offers value on the over, driven by the perimeter capabilities on both benches. This matchup showcases two of the Big Ten’s elite sharpshooters: Purdue’s Fletcher Loyer and Ohio State’s John Mobley Jr, who are both shooting north of 40% from deep this season (40.2% and 40.8%, respectively). Clean looks from beyond the arc will likely result in points.

Bruce Thornton plays heavy minutes for Ohio State (36.4 MPG) and operates as an efficient volume scorer (54.2% FG). On the other side, Purdue rarely endures prolonged scoring droughts due to interior dominance from players like Trey Kaufman-Renn (56.3% FG).

Situational trends suggest few empty possessions; expect a game flow where both teams trade baskets into the 70s or 80s, pushing this game over the posted total.

Purdue Boilermakers vs Ohio State Buckeyes Odds

The betting market clearly favors the visiting Boilermakers at Value City Arena. The Purdue vs Ohio State point spread ranges from PUR -6.0 to -6.5 at traditional sportsbooks. On the moneyline, Purdue is -275 or shorter, while the best price on Ohio State is +240. Sidenote: this is another market where Kalshi is offering a better price; a Purdue win is trading at 72¢, equal to a -257 moneyline. An Ohio State win is trading at 29¢, equivalent to a +245 moneyline.

PUR vs OSU Public-Betting Splits

The college basketball public betting handle for Sunday’s game reveals a sharp consensus on the spread, while the total sees a divergence between public sentiment and expert projection.

Spread and Moneyline Splits

The market has taken a firm stance backing the road favorite. Purdue is attracting 66.79% of total bets on the spread. More significantly, the Boilermakers command 81.2% of the total handle, indicating that larger wagers – often a proxy for sharp money – are laying the points.

This lopsided sentiment extends to the moneyline, where Purdue accounts for 89.89% of tickets and a massive 98.27% of the money. Despite the “desperate home team” narrative surrounding Ohio State, the betting market overwhelmingly expects Purdue to take care of business.

Total Splits

While the offensive metrics suggest a shootout, the public is betting on a defensive struggle. Currently, 59.75% of bets and 59.08% of the money are on the UNDER. This contrarian split creates value on the Over 150.5, allowing me to fade the public consensus.

Purdue vs Ohio State H2H Stats

A statistical breakdown of the matchup highlights the disparity between the No. 8 Boilermakers and the unranked Buckeyes. While Ohio State has performed well at home (12-3), the advanced metrics expose a significant gap in overall team quality and resume.

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