Arkansas vs Missouri Predictions & Picks (March 7)

Published: March 7, 2026 at 9:15 am EST

Arkansas tries to complete the season series sweep today at Mizzou. — Feb 21, 2026; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks guard Darius Acuff Jr (5) drives against Missouri Tigers guard Mark Mitchell (25) during the second half at Bud Walton Arena. Arkansas won 94-86. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Arkansas standout Darius Acuff Jr. is listed as doubtful with an ankle injury
See how the markets have adjusted to Acuff’s status
Our analysis breaks down Arkansas at Mizzou and offers the best bets

No. 20 Arkansas goes for the season series sweep and has a chance to spoil Missouri’s Senior Day today. Tip-off is set for 12 pm, ET (ESPN), in Columbia.

Arkansas beat Mizzou 94-86 on Feb. 21 and is a small road favorite today.

One potential issue: Star freshman Darius Acuff Jr. is listed as doubtful with an ankle injury and might not play until next week’s SEC Tournament.

Arkansas (22-8, 12-5 SEC) also has a chance to secure the No. 2 seed in next week’s SEC Tournament. Missouri (20-10, 10-7) is a bit farther back in the standings; its focus is on securing a signature win to improve its No. 60 RPI.

Our analysis breaks down the key trends, metrics and markets to provide the best bets for Arkansas at Mizzou on March 7.

Arkansas vs Missouri Best Bets

The margin between these two squads is razor-thin on paper, but the statistical profiles suggest a clear value side. Oddsmakers have installed Missouri as a narrow -1.5 point favorite, essentially viewing this as a coin flip at Mizzou Arena. However, recent form and offensive efficiency point toward the visitors.

The Spread: Arkansas -1.5 ($0.47 per contract at Kalshi)

At prediction site Kalshi, Arkansas -1.5 is trading at 47¢ (equivalent to a +106 odds, which is a better value than the sportsbooks. If you don’t already have an account at Kalshi, click “PREDICT” in the graphic below to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code. (If you already use Kalshi, try out SBD’s Novig promo code or check out our full list of prediction markets.)

We like this market for a variety of reasons, even if Acuff is limited or doesn’t play.

Mizzou Arena presents a hostile environment, but the Razorbacks possess the offensive depth and rim protection to dictate terms. The headline narrative surrounds the status of Acuff Jr. (SEC-best 22.2 PPG). Worst-case, Arkansas has proven it has the weapons to compensate.

Trevon Brazile is coming off a career-high 28-point performance against Texas and anchors the defense with 1.62 blocks per game (4th in the SEC). His ability to alter shots at the rim will be crucial against Missouri’s Mark Mitchell (17.4 PPG), who relies heavily on interior scoring. Furthermore, freshman Meleek Thomas (14.9 PPG) has shown the capacity to shoulder the scoring load, stepping up with clutch plays in the previous matchup against the Tigers. Missouri has struggled against top-tier athleticism, holding a 2-4 record against Rank 1-25 opponents.

Prediction: We are laying the points and riding with the Razorbacks. Whether Acuff plays or the offense runs through Brazile and Thomas, Arkansas has the superior résumé and momentum to cover the small number at Kalshi, where a $20 investment would produce a $23 profit if the Hogs cover.

Prediction Markets

Arkansas at Missouri

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Missouri

55%

Arkansas

47%

Predict

The Total: Over 161.5 (-110 at Bet365)

The total is set at a robust 161.5, yet the underlying metrics support a high-scoring affair. Remember, they combined for 180 points just a few weeks ago.

Missouri’s offensive scheme is predicated on spacing the floor for shooters like Jacob Crews, who is connecting on a blistering 45.5% of his three-point attempts, and Trent Pierce (40.2% from deep). This perimeter threat stretches defenses, creating driving lanes for Mitchell.

On the other end, Arkansas operates at a frantic pace, averaging 90.3 points per game in SEC play. The Razorbacks are highly efficient inside the arc, with Malique Ewin shooting 59.1% from the field. Neither team has demonstrated a desire to slow the tempo, and with Missouri allowing 74.8 points per game (and significantly more against elite offenses), the pace should remain elevated enough to clear this number.

Note: Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

Arkansas vs Missouri Public Betting Splits

The college basketball public betting data for this SEC showdown reveals a massive consensus on the road underdog, with bettors heavily fading the Tigers at home. While public and sharp money often diverge, in this instance, both the ticket count and the handle are aligning aggressively behind Arkansas.

Spread & Moneyline

The support for Arkansas is staggering. According to the latest splits, 87.8% of moneyline wagers are on the Razorbacks to win outright. That confidence is backed by significant volume, with 90.39% of the total moneyline handle on the visitors.

The story is nearly identical on the spread. Arkansas is attracting 76% of the spread bets, but the conviction is even higher when examining the cash flow. A massive 91.58% of the money wagered on the spread is on the Razorbacks to cover +1.5. This indicates that larger wagers—often a signal of respected bettors—are bypassing the home favorite entirely.

Total

While the spread action is lopsided, the total market is far more balanced. The Under is capturing 51.99% of the bets and a slightly stronger 56.6% of the money. This suggests a slight contrarian angle for our Over prediction, as the market seems wary of the high posted total of 160.5, possibly reacting to the injury news surrounding Acuff.

Arkansas vs Missouri Team Stats & Efficiency

Statistic	#20 Arkansas	Missouri
Overall Record	22-8	20-10
Conference Record	12-5	10-7
RPI Rating	0.6338	0.5697
Strength of Schedule	0.6021	0.5410
Points Per Game	90.3	79.8
Points Allowed Per Game	79.8	74.8
Scoring Margin	+10.5	+4.9
Record vs. RPI Top 50	5-8	5-5
Leading Scorer	D. Acuff Jr. (22.2 PPG)	M. Mitchell (17.4 PPG)

The RPI and SOS gap is the primary reason we are backing the Razorbacks. Arkansas has played the 13th toughest schedule based on RPI metrics and managed a superior win percentage compared to Missouri. In a game projected as a coin flip, the team that has consistently weathered tougher storms holds the distinct statistical advantage.

Arkansas Razorbacks vs Missouri Tigers Odds

Moneyline: Arkansas Razorbacks -115 | Missouri Tigers -105
Spread: Missouri Tigers -1.5 (-102) | Arkansas Razorbacks +1.5 (-118)
Total: Over/Under 160.5 (-110)

Odds as of March 6, 2026, from ESPN Bet.

Based on the current consensus moneyline odds, the implied, vig-free win probabilities are:

Arkansas Razorbacks: 51.1%
Missouri Tigers: 48.9%

For bettors looking to play the moneyline, the payouts remain close. A $20 wager on Arkansas to win outright at -115 would yield a profit of $17.39. Conversely, a $20 wager on Missouri at -105 would result in a profit of $19.05 should they defend their home court.

Kalshi also has markets on the moneyline. An Arkansas to win contract is trading for $0.50, which equates to +100 odds. A Missouri to win contract is $0.53, which equates to -113 odds.