Auburn vs Alabama Predictions, Best Bets & Splits (March 7)

• Alabama is a 7.5 point favorite as they host Auburn Saturday night
• The Crimson Tide have won five of the last seven meetings against the rival Tigers
• See my Auburn vs Alabama picks and predictions on Saturday

The final regular season game on the calendar goes Saturday night as the Auburn Tigers (16-14, 7-10 SEC, 2-7 road, 13-17 ATS) visit the #16 Alabama Crimson Tide (22-8, 12-5 SEC, 11-3 home, 12-17 ATS) at 8:30 pm ET / 5:30 pm PT. ESPN will carry the national broadcast.

Alabama has won five of the last seven duels against Auburn, including a 96-92 victory on February 7th. The Crimson Tide are coming off their first loss in nine contests versus Georgia, while the Tigers have dropped seven of nine. This betting preview dissects the key angles, market movements, and value picks for this high-intensity conference clash.

Auburn vs Alabama Picks & Predictions

In this Auburn vs Alabama tilt, I’m bullish on taking the under 177.5 points. In their last four meetings, at least 179 combined points have been accumulated, so initially I was tempted to go with the over points total. What made it so appealing was that Alabama leads the country with 92.0 points per game.

However, in their last six games that ended in regulation, less than 177.5 PPG was accumulated for AL. As for Auburn contests, the under has been the play in their last seven matchups.

AU vs AL Pick: Under 177.5 Points (-110 at BetMGM)

63% of wagers by bettors are agreeing with me, as they also think that these SEC rivals won’t be able to accumulate enough points to win this selection. Auburn hasn’t gone over 88 points in 13 of their last 14 duels, giving me pause when considering the over/under points total. I absolutely think Alabama will take this affair, but the 7.5 spread gives me a bit of pause – in their last five battles, they’ve only covered that line once.

Tigers vs Crimson Tide H2H Statistics

In the ten major statistical categories, Alabama has the edge over Auburn in all but one of them. The Crimson Tide lead the country with a sparkling 92.0 points per game.

The visitors leading scorer is senior forward Keyshawn Hall, who is 23rd in the country, putting up 20.6 PPG. He’s also tied for the team lead with 6.9 rebounds per game, with KeShawn Murphy. Hall is second on the unit in APG, so he’s a key component of what they do. In the meeting last month, it was sophomore guard Tahaad Pettiford leading the way with a team-highs in points (25) and assists (7).

As for the Crimson Tide, six players are averaging double digits in points, with Labaron Philon Jr. at the top with 21.5 PPG and 4.8 APG. He ranks 21st in ESPN’s top-100 prospects for the 2026 NBA draft.

Not to be overlooked is Aden Holloway, who averages 16.6 PPG and is second in assists (4.0). Amari Allen is 26th on ESPN’s big board, as the freshman forward has 11.7 PPG and leads the Crimson Tide with 7.1 rebounds per battle.

Auburn vs Alabama Public-Betting Splits

The data from Saturday’s college basketball public betting percentages huge support for the favorites, but a greater divide whether the underdog Tigers can cover the spread.

Moneyline Splits

Bettors are showing little hesitation regarding the outright winner with a gargantuan proclivity for Alabama.

• Auburn Tigers: 2% of Bets / 1% of Money
• Alabama Crimson Tide: 98% of Bets / 99% of Money

The overwhelming support for Alabama on the moneyline indicates the market views the Crimson Tide as a safe leverage piece for parlays, showing little confidence in a Tigers upset.

ATS Splits

The spread market highlights a potential value opportunity on the favorite.

• Auburn Tigers: 37% of Bets / 45% of Money
• Alabama Crimson Tide: 63% of Bets / 55% of Money

63% of spread tickets are backing AL to cover -7.5, and the money percentage for them (55%) shows bettors are thinking they’ll be able to cover. Despite the public overwhelmingly believing in Alabama to win the skirmish, it’s a much closer split on Auburn to cover the spread, with 45% of money on the road squad.

Total Market

• Over 176.5: 37% of Bets / 53% of Money
• Under 176.5: 63% of Bets / 47% of Money

With a high listed total of 176.5, bettors aren’t totally convinced both teams can score a ton of points in droves. However, it’s still a slight majority (53%) that thinks that the highest scoring team in NCAA (Alabama) can garner enough points, particularly because they allow 83.6 PPG also.

Auburn vs Alabama Odds

Saturday’s college basketball odds price the home squad as a considerable favorite, given that they’ve been victorious in eight of nine outings.

• Moneyline: Alabama -310 | Auburn +245
• Point Spread: Crimson Tide -7.5 (-105) | Tigers +7.5 (-115)
• Total: Over/Under 176.5 (O -110, U -110)

Odds as of 1:45 pm ET, March 7, at FanDuel.

Implied Probabilities and Win Projection

Removing the vig provides the market’s true expectations for the matchup:

• Auburn Win Probability: 26.6%
• Alabama Win Probability: 73.4%

The market assigns Alabama above a 73% chance of victory, consistent with the -310 moneyline price.

Moneyline Payout Calculation

For bettors assessing the risk-reward ratio on a standard $100 wager:

• Betting Auburn (+245): Returns a profit of $245 (Total Payout: $345.00).
• Betting Alabama (-310): Returns a profit of $32.00 (Total Payout: $132.00).

In the March Madness championship odds, Alabama can be found at huge price of +8000 at Caesars, while Auburn are massive +50000 longshots.