Anytime TD & Player-Prop Picks for Saints/Steelers in Paris
By Chris Amberley in NFL News
Published:
- Sunday morning’s Saints/Steelers matchup is loaded with value in the player props market
- Aaron Rodgers has cleared 1.5 passing touchdowns in four straight games
- See my favorite Anytime TD and player prop picks for Saints/Steelers in Paris, below
The New Orleans Saints host the Pittsburgh Steelers at Stade de France on Sunday morning with kickoff set for 9:30 am ET on NFL Network.
Prop bettors have a compelling slate of offensive talent to evaluate in this non-conference clash. This article breaks down the top NFL props to target, offering +EV picks driven by the numbers that are most predictive. Keep reading for my favorite Anytime TD and player prop picks for Saints/Steelers in Paris, below.
Player Props for NO/PIT
*Odds courtesy of BetMGM on Oct. 23. New users can claim the BetMGM promo code for a bonus to use on Week 7.
Looking at the Steelers/Saints player prop odds, New Orleans quarterback Tyler Shough saw his passing yards line drop from an opening mark of 233.5 down to 229.5. His completions line shifted from 23.5 to 22.5. His odds to throw over 1.5 passing touchdowns moved slightly from +140 to +145.
Aaron Rodgers’ passing yards line held steady at 233.5 for Pittsburgh, though the over odds shifted from -115 to +100. His completions odds also moved from -105 to +100 at the same 22.5 line. Rodgers’ odds to eclipse 1.5 passing touchdowns adjusted from an opening +100 to -105.
Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards line fell from an opening 16.5 down to 14.5. Kendre Miller’s rushing yards line edged down from 41.5 to 39.5. For Pittsburgh, Jaylen Warren’s rushing attempts line shifted from 15.5 to 14.5, and Rico Dowdle’s attempts dropped from 8.5 to 7.5.
Among pass-catchers, Chris Olave’s receiving yards line climbed slightly from 74.5 to 75.5. DK Metcalf’s receiving yards line drifted down from 58.5 to 56.5. Pat Freiermuth’s receptions line moved from 2.5 up to 3.5, with the over odds adjusting from -167 to +110.
Anytime TD Props for New Orleans/Pittsburgh
*Prices as of Oct. 23 from Kalshi. Claim the Kalshi promo code to lock in these lines.
Jaylen Warren holds the shortest anytime touchdown odds in this matchup. Finding the best-available price is critical, and Kalshi currently offers Warren at 52¢ for a touchdown, vastly outperforming traditional sportsbooks that listed him at -125.
Shough presents notable odds for a quarterback to score, sitting at 18¢ on Kalshi for an anytime touchdown. Kamara’s anytime touchdown odds lengthened from +185 to +310 at sportsbooks, but Kalshi offers better value at 22¢.
Best Player Prop Picks for Saints/Steelers
Pick #1: Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-108 at Novig)
The New Orleans defense allows 256 passing yards per game and 29.67 points per contest. Rodgers has consistently found the end zone multiple times over the past month.
- The Trend: Aaron Rodgers has exceeded 1.5 passing touchdowns in 4 straight games (2.8 passing touchdowns/game average).
- The Analysis: This market presents a strong betting angle based on his recent individual efficiency. With odds moving slightly in bettors’ favor from an opening +100 to -105, backing Rodgers to clear this hurdle is a smart, statistically backed play. Before making any bet this weekend, scan the prediction market apps to find the best price.
Pick #2: Kendre Miller Under 43.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114 at BetMGM)
New Orleans faces a Pittsburgh defense allowing 307.5 total net yards per game, which could limit offensive opportunities for secondary options.
- The Trend: Kendre Miller has failed to exceed 43.5 rushing + receiving yards in 6 of his last 7 games (29.6 rushing + receiving yards/game average).
- The Analysis: Miller’s production has fallen off a cliff recently. He has struggled to hit this combined number consistently, falling well short on average. The historical data strongly supports the under.
Pick #3: Jaylen Warren 60+ Rushing Yards (-127 / 56¢ at Kalshi)
Warren has established a high floor on the ground, making his rushing yardage prop an appealing target. His play so far is a major reason why Pittsburgh is on pace to exceed their NFL win totals.
- The Trend: Jaylen Warren has exceeded 63.5 rushing yards in 3 of his last 4 games (92.8 rushing yards/game average).
- The Analysis: The New Orleans defense surrenders 138 rushing yards per game to opposing offenses. Warren’s individual pattern of exceeding 63.5 rushing yards easily clears this 62.5-yard line.
Pick #4: Jaylen Warren Anytime TD (-108 / 52¢ at Kalshi)
Warren’s consistent volume in the red zone makes this an ideal target for anytime touchdown bettors. While traditional sportsbooks list his scoring prop at -125, taking him at 52¢ on Kalshi secures mathematically superior value.
Weather Forecast and Stadium Conditions
Saint-Denis and the greater Paris area project quintessential cool, overcast autumn conditions for Sunday’s European showcase at Stade de France, according to the latest NFL weather forecasts. Afternoon temperatures will hover around 55 to 58 degrees Fahrenheit with humidity near 75%.
Sustained westerly breezes are forecasted at a modest 7 to 10 mph, keeping crosswind interference low for placekickers and deep passing concepts alike. While high cloud cover will blanket northern France throughout the afternoon, rain chances remain minimal at under 15%, ensuring dry turf conditions that avoid slick footing and keep both offenses from being forced into conservative, weather-handicapped game plans.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
