Bruins vs Penguins Prediction, Best Bets, Odds & Injury News (Sunday, March 8)

• Boston has won all three meetings this season and five straight in Pittsburgh
• The Penguins are without Crosby and Malkin for a game with major Wild Card implications
• Read my Bruins vs Penguins prediction and best bets below, plus odds and injury news for Sunday’s TNT matinee

The Boston Bruins (35-22-5, 11-14-4 away) visit the Pittsburgh Penguins (31-17-14, 15-9-8 home) in a Sunday matinee with major playoff implications. One point separates these teams in the Eastern Conference standings, and Boston has swept the season series so far.

Pittsburgh will be without both Crosby and Malkin for the second straight game, while both clubs are playing the back end of back-to-backs.

Puck drop is set for 4:30 pm ET on TNT. Here are my Bruins vs Penguins prediction, best bets and odds.

Bruins vs Penguins Prediction

• Bruins ML (+106 at FanDuel)

My Bruins vs Penguins prediction is on Boston at plus money. Getting the better team in a season series at +106 is rare value, and I think the market is overweighting Pittsburgh’s home-ice advantage given the circumstances.

The Bruins have won all three meetings this season, and the combined score tells you everything: 5-2 across three games. Pittsburgh managed just two total goals in the two most recent matchups (2-1 loss, 1-0 loss). Swayman stopped 34 of 35 shots in Tuesday’s win and has a .971 SV% across his last two starts against the Pens.

Bruins vs Penguins Recent Meetings

The under has hit in all five of the last meetings, and Boston has won five straight in Pittsburgh. Without Crosby and Malkin, the Pens scored just five goals across three games. Rickard Rakell shifts to center the top line, but that’s a huge ask against a Bruins team that just held the Capitals to one goal on Saturday.

Both teams are on back-to-backs, so fatigue is a wash. Swayman played Saturday (22 saves, .957 SV%), meaning Korpisalo should get the start for Boston. That’s not the drop-off it might seem. Korpisalo has gone 5-2-2 with a 2.61 GAA and .911 SV% since Christmas, nearly matching Swayman’s numbers. Silovs is expected for Pittsburgh after Skinner started against Philadelphia.

Bruins vs Penguins Key Stats

Pittsburgh’s penalty kill is second in the league at 84.7%, which normally makes them tough to beat with the man advantage. But Boston ranks fifth on the power play (25.27%) and takes the third-most penalties in the NHL (12.45 PIM/game). That could be a wash, or it could swing in Boston’s favor if the shorthanded Pens take undisciplined penalties trying to compensate for the missing firepower.

Boston’s road record (11-14-4) is ugly, and they’ve lost six straight away from home. But all streaks end, and getting plus money against a team missing its two best players is the kind of spot I want to buy into.

Bruins vs Penguins Best Bets

• Under 6.5 Goals (-125 at BetMGM)

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The under has cashed in all five meetings between these teams, and four of Pittsburgh’s last four games overall have gone under. The Pens also own a 5-0 under record in their last five against Atlantic Division opponents.

With both teams on back-to-backs and Pittsburgh’s offense gutted, this has low-scoring matinee written all over it.

• David Pastrnak Anytime Goal (+140 at DraftKings)

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Pastrnak hasn’t scored in eight games, but his shot volume says the drought is about to end. He had six shots on eight attempts in Saturday’s win over Washington and dished out two assists.

His shooting percentage (11.2%) is the second-lowest of his career, which means positive regression is coming. At +140, I’m buying the breakout game against a depleted Pens lineup.

Bruins vs Penguins Odds

Odds as of March 8 via consensus sportsbooks. Grab the FanDuel promo code for a sign-up bonus on today’s NHL odds.

The Bruins vs Penguins odds have Pittsburgh as a -125 home favorite with Boston around +105 to +106. The puck line is Penguins -1.5 and Bruins +1.5. The total sits at 6.5, with the under favored at -125.

Pittsburgh’s -125 moneyline translates to roughly a 55.6% implied probability. That’s low for a home favorite, and the Crosby/Malkin absences are clearly baked into the price. About 64% of the money has come in on Boston so far, which has kept the Bruins in plus-money territory.

Bruins vs Penguins Injury News

The Penguins are in rough shape. Crosby (lower body) has no timetable for return, and Malkin’s five-game suspension keeps him out until mid-March. That’s 106 combined points missing from the lineup. Jack St. Ivany (hand) and Filip Hallander (leg) are also out.

Without those two centers, Rakell moves to the middle of the top line with Chinakhov and Rust. Chinakhov has points in six of his last nine and had two assists in Saturday’s loss to Philadelphia. Karlsson had a five-game point streak before the recent slide and will need to drive offense from the blue line.

Boston is fully healthy heading into the final stretch of the regular season.