Emmett vs Vallejos Last-Minute Prediction & Best Props | UFC Vegas 114 Tonight

• Josh Emmett faces Kevin Vallejos in tonight’s UFC Vegas 114 main event from the Meta APEX in Las Vegas
• Vallejos is a massive -550 favorite with Emmett sitting at +400 on BetMGM
• See my last-minute Emmett vs Vallejos prediction and best prop bets below

We’re a couple hours from UFC Fight Night, and the main event between Josh Emmett and Kevin Vallejos is about to go down at the Meta APEX. This is a classic veteran vs prospect matchup, but the gap between these two is wider than the odds suggest it should be. Actually, no. The odds have it about right.

Emmett is 1-4 in his last five fights and coming off a first-round submission loss to Youssef Zalal where he didn’t land a single significant strike. Vallejos is 3-0 in the UFC with a knockout of Giga Chikadze via spinning backfist in his last outing. The 17-year age gap tells the rest of the story.

The main card is live tonight on Paramount+, with the main event walkouts expected around 9:40 pm ET. Here are my last-minute prop picks for Emmett vs Vallejos.

Emmett vs Vallejos Prediction

• Emmett vs Vallejos Pick: Kevin Vallejos by KO/TKO/DQ (-105 at BetMGM)

I’m taking Vallejos by KO/TKO/DQ at -105. Laying a nickel on a method of victory prop in a fight where the moneyline is -550 is a much better way to play this. You’re basically getting Vallejos at a coin flip price to finish a guy who’s been finished in three of his last five fights.

The striking accuracy gap between these two is enormous. Vallejos landed 62.50% of his significant strikes against Chikadze before putting him away in the second round. He hit 51.85% against Seungwoo Choi and 64.86% against Cam Teague. This is a precision striker who doesn’t waste energy on shots that aren’t going to land.

Tale of the Tape

Emmett, on the other hand, is a volume-heavy power puncher who loads up on big looping shots. His accuracy has cratered in recent fights, hitting just 28.52% of 305 attempts against Ilia Topuria and 28.67% of 143 attempts against Lerone Murphy. When he can’t find the one-punch knockout early, he gets outworked and outclassed. Against Zalal, he was submitted in Round 1 without landing a strike. That’s where things stand for the 41-year-old right now.

Vallejos fights like a younger, faster version of Emmett. He moves forward with calculated combinations, mixes in calf kicks to break down his opponent’s stance, and has the power to end things in any round. He dropped Chikadze before finishing him, dropped Choi in the first round, and also scored a knockdown against Teague. The kid finishes fights. Twelve of his 17 wins have come by knockout.

Emmett’s only real path here is landing one of those massive overhand rights early. He still has legitimate one-punch power, and nobody should count that out entirely. But his defensive liabilities are too big to ignore at this point. His striking defense has been leaky, and his grappling got completely exposed by Zalal. If Vallejos stays disciplined with his jab, works the calf kick early, and doesn’t get reckless walking into Emmett’s range, this should be his fight to lose.

I expect Vallejos to break Emmett down over the first couple of rounds with leg kicks and sharp boxing, then find the finish when Emmett starts loading up out of desperation. The KO/TKO prop at -105 is the sharpest play on this board.

Best Prop Bet: Fight Ends in Round 2

Best Prop: Fight Ends in Round 2 (+450 at BetMGM)

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My second prop is the fight to end in Round 2 at +450. This one comes down to pacing and how I think the fight unfolds.

Round 1 at +400 is tempting, and an early finish wouldn’t shock anyone. But Emmett is a tough, experienced veteran who will be cautious early. He’s going to come out behind a low guard, trying to time Vallejos with that big right hand. I think he survives the first round by staying compact and not overcommitting.

Round 2 is where it falls apart. That’s what happened against Chikadze. Vallejos spent the first round establishing range, landing calf kicks, and figuring out his opponent’s timing. Then he uncorked the spinning backfist in the second and it was over. Vallejos is patient enough to take a round of data before he turns up the aggression, and Emmett’s durability just isn’t what it used to be.

The fight not going the distance is priced at -210, so there’s a 68% implied chance of a finish. Getting +450 on the specific round where Vallejos has shown he likes to pull the trigger is solid value. Pair it with the KO/TKO prop and you’ve got a nice two-prop card for tonight’s main event.

Emmett vs Vallejos Odds

Vallejos is a heavy -550 favorite at BetMGM, carrying an 80.2% implied win probability per Sportradar’s model. The fight ending inside the distance is priced at -210, while a decision sits at +150. The KO/TKO/DQ method is favored at -140 overall, and Vallejos specifically by knockout is the most likely single outcome on the board at -105.

Emmett by KO at +800 is the only realistic upset path. His submission and decision lines are +3000 and +900 respectively, which tells you the market doesn’t see him grinding out a win. If you want a sprinkle on the upset, Emmett by KO in Round 1 at +2800 is the lottery ticket, but I wouldn’t put much behind it.

Odds as of March 14th at BetMGM Sportsbook. Bet on UFC Vegas 114 tonight with a BetMGM promo code or browse UFC betting apps.