A.I. Picks for NIT on March 18 – Get Computer Picks for All 8 Games
By Sascha Paruk in College Basketball
Published:
- The NIT first round continues with eight more games on Wednesday, March 18
- I ran all eight games through our A.I. prediction model
- See the NIT computer picks for all eight games today
The first round of the NIT wraps up on Wednesday, March 8, with eight more games, starting with Navy vs #1 Wake Forest at 7:00 pm ET and culminating with Saint Joe’s vs #3 Colorado State at 11:00 pm ET.
I submitted all eight games to Sportradar’s A.I. prediction model in order to generate the top NIT computer picks for Wednesday. I then line shopped the market to for the best-available price for every pick. The table below summarizes the computer’s pick and the best price for that pick.
A.I. NIT Picks Today (Wednesday, March 18)
“Best Odds” as of 10:31 am ET, March 18th. Check out the full list of California sports betting apps.
Navy vs Wake Forest Pick: Navy +12.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
A.I. Explanation: “The Demon Deacons earned a No. 1 seed in the NIT and face the Navy Midshipmen as a massive 12.5-point favorite. While the moneyline is unplayable at -833, that inflated spread creates value on the other side. Navy plays a disciplined, slow-paced style that can keep games tight and grind possessions to a crawl – exactly the kind of tempo that prevents blowouts.
The Midshipmen may lack the offensive firepower to win outright against an ACC roster eager to prove they deserved an NCAA Tournament bid, but 12 points is a lot to lay in a first-round NIT game where motivation gaps are real. Take Navy +12.5 and bank on their methodical approach to keep this one within striking distance.”
Kent State vs Illinois State Pick: Illinois State -5.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
A.I. Explanation: “The Illinois State Redbirds (20-12) host the Kent State Golden Flashes as a 6-point favorite. The Redbirds are coming off a strong MVC semifinal run, which included a decisive 78-61 victory over Murray State. Illinois State boasts a 69.12% true win probability here. Their half-court defense has been exceptional. Kent State tends to stall offensively on the road, failing to cover the spread in 64% of their away games as an underdog.”
George Washington vs Utah Valley Pick: Utah Valley -1.5 (-113 at Kalshi)
A.I. Explanation: “Utah Valley hosts the George Washington in what shapes up to be a tight contest. The Revolutionaries secured one of the A-10’s five NIT bids, but they run into a Utah Valley squad eager to bounce back from a narrow 63-61 loss in the WAC title game. The Wolverines hold a 54.27% true win probability. Back Utah Valley -1.5 to stifle the George Washington offense.”
Dayton vs Bradley Pick: Dayton -1.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
A.I. Explanation: “The Dayton Flyers (23-11) visit the Bradley Braves (21-12) in what the oddsmakers project as an absolute grinder. With a slate-low over/under total set at 143 points, every half-court possession carries massive weight. Dayton enters this matchup fresh off an Atlantic 10 tournament runner-up finish, highlighted by a thrilling 70-69 semifinal win where Jacob Conner and Robbie Avila hit back-to-back clutch threes. In tight, low-scoring games, backing the team with superior late-game execution is profitable. Lay the 1.5 points and trust Dayton to squeak out a tough road victory.”
Sam Houston vs New Mexico Pick: Over 164.5 (-110 at Caesars)
A.I. Explanation: “If Dayton and Bradley are expected to be a defensive battle, this matchup is the exact opposite. The total is set at a massive 164.5 points – the highest mark on today’s slate. The New Mexico Lobos are a heavy 12-point favorite with an 85.30% true win probability against the visiting Sam Houston Bearkats. Because a moneyline bet on New Mexico yields virtually no return (sitting well past the -300 betting odds threshold), targeting the total provides a much better situational edge. The Lobos dictate a blazing tempo, ranking in the top tier of transition scoring. Expect a track meet that easily sails past the 164.5 total.”
Murray State vs Nevada Pick: Nevada -8.5 (-103 at Kalshi)
A.I. Explanation: “The Nevada Wolf Pack (22-12) host the Murray State Racers (20-12) in Reno. Nevada is laying 8.5 points, boasting a 77.23% true win probability. The Racers accepted this bid after an early Missouri Valley Conference quarterfinal exit, while the Wolf Pack battled deep into the Mountain West semis. Nevada has been dominant on their home floor at Lawlor Events Center. With an over/under resting at 163.5, expect a high-scoring affair where Nevada’s superior offensive efficiency eventually pulls them away. Take Nevada -8.5, fading a Murray State squad that has struggled to defend the perimeter down the stretch.”
Saint Joseph’s vs Colorado State Pick: CSU -5.5 (-127 at Kalshi)
A.I. Explanation: “The Colorado State Rams (21-12) enter this home clash as a solid 6-point favorite over the Saint Joseph’s Hawks (22-11). When you strip away the house edge, Colorado State holds a 68.54% true probability of winning outright, compared to just 31.46% for Saint Joseph’s. Altitude and travel are real factors here at Moby Arena. The Rams rebounded from a rough mid-season stretch to get hot in February. Lay the points with Colorado State in a game script where they should consistently string together stops.”
UIC vs California Pick: Cal -5.0 (-110 at Caesars)
A.I. Explanation: “The California Golden Bears (21-11) welcome the UIC Flames (19-15) to Haas Pavilion with a 5-point spread. The Flames tied for a respectable 12-8 record in the MVC, but stepping up in class against a power-conference opponent on the road is a tough situational spot. California holds a 66.36% no-vig probability of advancing. The Golden Bears have utilized a physical frontcourt to bully mid-major opponents this year. Lay the 5 points with California on Caesars, as their distinct size advantage will wear down UIC over 40 minutes.”
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
