Expert Picks & How to Watch Navy vs Wake Forest (NIT)
By Sascha Paruk in College Basketball
Published:
- Wake Forest hosts Navy as an 12.5-point home favorite in the opening round of the NIT
- Sharp money is heavily backing the underdog Midshipmen against the spread
- See my data-driven Navy vs Wake Forest predictions and expert picks, plus how to watch
Jump to: PICKS || BETTING LINES || SPLITS
How to Watch Navy vs Wake Forest
Wednesday’s NIT slate starts with the #1 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (17-16 SU, 12-6 home, 15-17-1 ATS) hosting the Navy Midshipmen (26-7 SU, 10-4 away, 20-10-1 ATS). Bettors can catch tonight’s tip-off at 7:00 pm ET live on ESPNU from the Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Winston-Salem, North Carolina.
Can the battle-tested power-conference favorite cover a big number against the highly disciplined 26-win mid-major? Find my expert picks for Navy vs Wake Forest, below, plus the latest odds and betting splits.
Wake Forest vs Navy Picks & Predictions
ATS Pick: Navy +12.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
The Midshipmen captured the Patriot League regular-season title, fueled by dynamic performances from conference Player of the Year Austin Benigni and Defensive Player of the Year Aidan Kehoe.
When evaluating how these two programs stack up, the contrast in their respective regular-season paths is the defining storyline.
Navy vs Wake Forest Team Stats
The most glaring mismatch in this statistical breakdown is the massive gap in SOS. Wake Forest navigated an incredibly demanding ACC gauntlet, yielding an impressive 0.5727 SOS. However, they struggled immensely against top-tier competition, going winless (0-6) against the top-25 teams and securing just a 1-4 record against teams ranked 26-50. Meanwhile, Navy completely dominated the teams they were supposed to beat, boasting an outstanding 24-4 record against teams ranked 151 or lower.
After shopping for the best available price across the market – including traditional sportsbooks and also prediction markets – I am backing the road underdog at +12.5. Navy is an impressive 10-4 straight up on the road this season, boasting a 71.4% success rate in away games, and had the eighth-best cover rate in all of DI this season (66.7%). Navy’s only game against a power-conference opponent this season was a 12-point loss at UNC as massive 26.5-point road underdogs, covering by 13.5 points.
Navy will lean heavily on Kehoe to protect the rim and limit Wake Forest’s points in the paint, while Benigni will methodically dictate a slower offensive tempo to keep the margin tight.
Game-Total Pick: Under 150.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Stepping up in weight class against an ACC opponent means Navy would be well advised to avoid an open-court track meet. To keep the game within that double-digit spread, the Midshipmen will try to limit possessions and try to execute in the half-court, which is how Navy (which ranks 302nd in Tempo) has tried to play all season.
KenPom projects just 144 points (77-67 Wake victory), which is a rare six-point cushion against the posted game total.
Wake Forest vs Navy Betting Lines & Odds
The current betting board positions Wake Forest as a heavy home favorite to advance, requiring bettors to lay a steep 11.5 points on the spread. The total is listed at an inflated 150.5, reflecting standard -110 juice on both sides after moving off the opening number of 147.5.
When stripping the sportsbook’s standard vigorish from the moneyline odds, the true normalized probabilities reveal the expected dynamic of this postseason mismatch. Wake Forest holds a commanding 85.30% vig-free probability of winning the game outright, leaving Navy with a 14.70% implied probability of springing the upset.
These steep moneylines drastically alter potential returns at the betting window. If you were to place a $10 wager on Wake Forest at -833, a home victory would yield a total payout of just $11.20 – a meager $1.20 profit. Conversely, placing that same $10 bet on Navy at +550 offers a much more lucrative proposition; if the road dogs can stun the crowd, that ticket would return a total payout of $65.00, netting $55.00 in pure profit.
Wake Forest vs Navy Betting Splits
When evaluating the betting market, it is essential to distinguish between the sheer volume of tickets (bet percentage) and the actual financial handle (stake percentage).
Wednesday’s college basketball public betting data show a “sharp-vs-public” split on the moneyline (i.e. ticket count is 60% or greater on Team A while handle is 60% or greater on Team B). In this contest, an overwhelming 97.09% of the betting tickets are backing the favored Wake Forest to win outright. However, the money tells a completely different story: 60.51% of the stake percentage is backing the underdog Navy. This massive discrepancy indicates that, while everyday bettors are tossing Wake Forest into their parlays, the sharp money is taking a serious swing at the road dogs pulling off the outright upset.
When looking at the spread, both the public and the sharps are firmly aligned, and their sentiment perfectly matches my prediction. Bettors are happily grabbing the points with the Midshipmen, with 77.24% of the tickets taking Navy against the spread. More importantly, the financial handle completely validates this position. An astounding 94.42% of the total spread money is riding on Navy.
Finally, my position on the game total is a contrarian approach. Currently, the betting splits show strong support for a high-scoring affair. The over has commanded 67.74% of the betting tickets and accounts for 66.19% of the total money wagered.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
