Computer Picks for March Madness Games Today – A.I. Best Bets on March 20)

• Our A.I. model has made its March Madness picks for Friday, March 20
• See the top computer pick for all 16 NCAA Tournament games today

Thursday’s opening day of the NCAA Tournament brought several surprises — including yet another 12-over-5 upset.

Will Friday follow suit?

There are 16 more NCAA Tournament games on deck today, with the first tilt tipping off at 12:15 pm, ET.

I submitted each game to Sportradar’s proprietary A.I. model and asked it to generate its best spread bet for all 16 games. The table summarizes the picks, which I line-shopped across all available sportsbooks and prediction sites.

A.I. March Madness Picks & Computer Predictions

Santa Clara vs Kentucky

The Santa Clara Broncos are dancing for the first time in 30 years after an emotional WCC tournament title run, bringing a large, highly-skilled roster to face the volatile Kentucky Wildcats. As a No. 7 seed—their lowest since 2014—Kentucky has experienced a roller-coaster season, making them a fascinating favorite. With the Wildcats laying just 3.5 points, Santa Clara’s momentum and inside presence make them a very live underdog in what figures to be a tense afternoon tilt.

Pick: Kentucky -3.5 (+104 at Kalshi)

Akron vs Texas Tech Pick & Analysis

Texas Tech faces a formidable analytical challenge against Akron at the Benchmark International Arena. While Texas Tech is battle-tested, they enter this contest on a three-game skid. Conversely, Akron rides a strong 27-5 record into the tournament and boasts an elite offense that averages 88.6 points per game. The combination of Akron’s blistering offensive efficiency and the aforementioned 14% sharp money discrepancy makes taking the points with the underdog an optimal, data-backed angle.

Pick: Akron +7.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

LIU vs Arizona

The top-seeded Arizona Wildcats enter the tournament as a heavy national title favorite after dominating the Big 12, led by MVP Jaden Bradley. They face an LIU squad making a Cinderella run as NEC champions, but oddsmakers and sharp bettors are showing no mercy. Despite the Sharks capturing over 96% of the public tickets as 30.5-point underdogs, the actual betting handle is heavily skewed toward Arizona, indicating that professional syndicates fully expect the Wildcats’ elite defense to execute a relentless, start-to-finish blowout.

Pick: Arizona -30.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Wright State vs Virginia

Virginia’s trademark pack-line defense will be put to the test against a surging Wright State team that captured the Horizon League auto-bid. The Cavaliers, fresh off an ACC runner-up finish, are 18.5-point favorites and look to suffocate a Raiders offense that hasn’t seen this level of defensive resistance all season. While Wright State’s story is fantastic, Virginia’s methodical pace and ability to grind opponents into submission makes laying the heavy lumber a strong consideration for bettors expecting a low-scoring, one-sided affair.

Pick: Virginia -18.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Tennessee State vs Iowa State

The Iowa State Cyclones rely on a suffocating, elite defense that generates nearly 20 points per game off turnovers, making them a nightmare matchup for the Tennessee State Tigers. Making their first NCAA tournament appearance since 1994, the Ohio Valley champions will be thrown into the fire against a No. 2 seed that boasts wins over heavyweights like Purdue and Kansas. With a massive 24.5-point spread, the Cyclones are positioned to overwhelm the Tigers early through relentless backcourt pressure.

Pick: Iowa State -24.5 (-110 at Caesars)

Hofstra vs Alabama

Alabama looks to handle business as an 11.5-point favorite against a capable Hofstra squad. The Crimson Tide are well-known for their high-octane offense and ability to bury opponents with an avalanche of three-pointers. Hofstra must find a way to dictate the tempo and prevent this game from turning into a track meet if they hope to cover the double-digit spread, but Alabama’s superior athleticism and SEC pedigree make them a formidable hurdle for the Pride.

Pick: Alabama -11.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Utah State vs Villanova

This No. 8 versus No. 9 matchup is a classic battle of public perception against underlying metrics. While Villanova carries the stronger brand name, Utah State enters the tournament as the Mountain West regular-season and tournament champions with a stellar 27-6 record. Analytically, the Aggies hold the edge, sitting at No. 30 overall in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin compared to Villanova at No. 33. Furthermore, Villanova stumbled into the postseason following a disappointing Big East quarterfinal exit. Factor in the sharp handle heavily favoring the Aggies, and laying the short -1.5 spread with the statistically superior and hotter team is the correct mathematical play.

Pick: Utah State -1.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Miami (OH) vs Tennessee

Much like their SEC counterparts, the Tennessee Volunteers enter the postseason looking to avoid any early drama as 11.5-point favorites against the Miami (OH) RedHawks. The Volunteers lean on a physical, lockdown defensive scheme that frequently disrupts mid-major offenses. If Tennessee can dictate the glass and keep the RedHawks out of rhythm in half-court sets, they should comfortably advance, though bettors will need to monitor if the Vols’ offense can generate enough separation to cover the sizable number.

Pick: Tennessee -11.5 (-110 at theScore)

Iowa vs Clemson

In what projects to be one of the most entertaining and tightly contested battles of the day, the Iowa Hawkeyes enter as slight 2.5-point favorites against the Clemson Tigers. This matchup features two battle-tested programs capable of trading blows down the stretch. With the total set at a modest 128.5, oddsmakers expect a grind-it-out affair where every possession matters, making it a spot where taking the points or backing the underdog provides excellent value in what should be a back-and-forth thriller.

Pick: Iowa -2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Northern Iowa vs St. John’s

Following a deep run to the Big East title game, the St. John’s Red Storm are carrying significant momentum into their first-round clash with Northern Iowa. As 9.5-point favorites, St. John’s will look to utilize their relentless pace and physicality to overwhelm the Panthers. Northern Iowa will need a flawless shooting performance to keep pace, but the Red Storm’s aggressive style under their veteran coaching staff makes them a daunting opponent to bet against in this spot.

Pick: St. John’s -9.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

UCF vs UCLA

The UCLA Bruins find themselves laying 5.5 points against a gritty UCF Knights squad that recently gained valuable experience battling top-tier opponents in the Big 12 tournament. This 5.5-point spread indicates a competitive fixture, with both teams relying heavily on defensive execution to advance. UCF’s physicality could pose problems for the Bruins, making this a prime candidate for an entertaining clash where the underdog catching points is a highly attractive proposition.

Pick: UCLA -5.5 (-110 at Caesars)

Queens University vs Purdue

The Purdue Boilermakers wield the nation’s most efficient adjusted offense, setting the stage for a dramatic mismatch against the Queens University Royals, who are making their first-ever tournament appearance following their D1 transition. Given Purdue’s inside dominance and a towering 25.5-point spread, the Boilermakers are expected to establish the paint early and often. For bettors, the primary question isn’t whether Purdue will win, but rather when they will call off the dogs and rest their starters.

Pick: Purdue -25.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Prairie View A&M vs Florida

Florida is an elite national contender ranking in the top 10 of both the AP and RPI polls, but laying 35.5 points in a slow-paced postseason environment offers minimal value. Prairie View A&M brings serious individual firepower to the hardwood that can help them secure a backdoor cover against a massive spread. Guard Dontae Horne is averaging an explosive 25.0 points and 4.0 steals per game, while forward Cory Wells operates as an anchor in the paint, putting up 11.0 rebounds per contest. With Florida likely to build a comfortable early lead and heavily rotate their bench down the stretch to preserve legs, expect the Panthers’ high-usage duo to generate enough late-game offense to comfortably stay inside the number.

Pick: Prairie View A&M +35.5 (-110 at theScore)

California Baptist vs Kansas

The California Baptist Lancers are making their D1 tournament debut against college basketball royalty as they face the No. 4 seed Kansas Jayhawks. Led by Dominique Daniels Jr., who pours in an explosive 23.2 points per game, the Lancers have a puncher’s chance to keep things competitive. However, the Jayhawks, laying 13.5 points, have the pedigree and institutional experience to weather early storms, making this a fascinating test of a hot mid-major scorer against a blue-blood defense.

Pick: Kansas -13.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Furman vs UConn

The UConn Huskies begin their march as a No. 2 seed and massive 20.5-point favorites against the Furman Paladins. What makes this matchup particularly interesting is the betting market on the total, as a staggering 96% of the tickets and handle are pouring in on the Over. With UConn’s historically dominant postseason execution and Furman’s willingness to push the pace, sharp bettors and the public alike are banking on a high-scoring showcase in Philadelphia.

Pick: UConn -20.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Missouri vs Miami (FL) Pick & Analysis

Playing at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis provides Missouri with a massive pseudo-home-court advantage in this technically neutral-site matchup. Miami enters this contest reeling from a brutal 84-62 loss to Virginia in the ACC tournament, exposing defensive vulnerabilities along the perimeter. Missouri earned their at-large bid by thriving in transition, and in front of a heavily partisan crowd, they are positioned perfectly to dictate the tempo. Backing a live underdog catching 1.5 points in their own backyard presents a high-probability situational edge, especially against a Miami squad struggling to find offensive consistency in half-court sets.

Pick: Missouri +1.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

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