March Madness Championship Odds: Should Duke Still Be the Favorite After Round 1 Scare?

• No. 1 overall seed Duke barely survived 16-seed Siena, winning 71-65 as a 28.5-point favorite
• The Blue Devils trailed by 11 at halftime before mounting a comeback without starting center Patrick Ngongba II
• See below for an updated look at the March Madness championship odds and whether Duke still deserves favorite status

Duke is still standing, but barely. The No. 1 overall seed needed an 11-0 run down the stretch to escape 16-seed Siena 71-65 on Thursday. The Blue Devils entered as 28.5-point favorites and nearly became just the third 1-seed ever to lose to a 16.

So where does that leave Duke in the March Madness championship odds? And should bettors still trust them as the title favorite heading into Saturday’s Round of 32 matchup with TCU?

Updated March Madness Championship Odds

The March Madness championship odds have already shifted at DraftKings, with the first round still underway.

The big takeaway? Duke is no longer the outright favorite. Arizona (+340) and Michigan (+370) have both jumped ahead at DraftKings, pushing the Blue Devils to +425. Before the tournament, Duke sat around +350 at sportsbooks and held 33.5% implied probability on Kalshi.

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Should Duke Still Be the Favorite?

On paper, absolutely. Duke came in at 33-2 with a 17-1 ACC record, the conference tournament title, and the No. 1 ranking in both the AP Poll and KenPom.

Cameron Boozer is the frontrunner for National Player of the Year in the March Madness Most-Outstanding Player odds, and he showed why on Thursday with 22 points, 13 rebounds, and 3 assists despite shooting 4-of-11.

But this game showed some ugly truths. Starting center Patrick Ngongba II missed his fifth straight game with right foot soreness. Without the 6-foot-11, 250-pound sophomore who anchors KenPom’s No. 2 defense, Duke’s interior got torn apart.

Siena collected 11 offensive rebounds and outscored Duke 22-16 in the paint during the first half alone. Maliq Brown, the ACC Defensive Player of the Year filling in, is two inches shorter than Ngongba and doesn’t offer the same rim protection.

Coach Jon Scheyer hinted before Thursday that Ngongba was being preserved for Saturday’s Round of 32 game against TCU. That gamble nearly cost Duke everything.

On top of that, starting point guard Caleb Foster is out with a fractured right foot and may not return until the Final Four. Check the full March Madness injuries list for other absences worth monitoring.

The shooting was also alarming. Duke went 5-of-26 from three (19.2%) against Siena, including 2-of-15 in the first half. Siena’s defense held opponents to 42.2% shooting during the regular season, but this is still a 16-seed.

The East Region is loaded, with all top-5 seeds ranking inside the top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency. If Duke shoots like that against real competition, they’re going home early.

Best Value March Madness Championship Odds

If Duke’s near-miss has you looking elsewhere, here are a few March Madness championship odds worth targeting.

Michigan (+370) has the easiest road among the top tier. The Wolverines land in the Midwest, the softest bracket of the four. Sharp money has noticed too, with Michigan carrying the highest handle percentage (14.0%) at BetMGM.

For longer shots, I like Illinois (+2200). The Illini rank second in adjusted offensive efficiency and land in the South Region, the weakest of the four 1-seed brackets. Analyst models put Illinois at 5.7% to win the title, slightly above the 4.35% implied by their +2200 price.

Don’t sleep on Florida (+750) either. The defending national champs still own a top-5 KenPom ranking. Getting +750 on a team that cut down the nets last April is worth a sprinkle, even after an uneven regular-season finish.

Fill out your printable March Madness bracket and lock in your futures before the Round of 32 tips off on Saturday.