Iowa State vs Kentucky Picks, Predictions, How to Watch & Injuries: Is Joshua Jefferson Playing?

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How to Watch Iowa State vs Kentucky

The 2026 NCAA Tournament second round continues on Sunday, March 22, with a Midwest Region clash between the #2 Iowa State Cyclones (28-7 SU) and #7 Kentucky Wildcats (22-13 SU). Tip-off is scheduled for 2:45 pm ET at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, MO. CBS and Paramount+ will provide broadcast coverage.

Iowa State enters with a record after a dominant 108-74 first-round rout of Tennessee State. They achieved this despite losing All-American forward Joshua Jefferson to a sprained ankle early in the game. He is unlikely to play, forcing the rotation to adapt.

Kentucky sits at after surviving a thrilling 89-84 overtime win against Santa Clara. Transfer guard Otega Oweh saved their season with a miraculous 35-foot buzzer-beater. I am eager to break down this matchup from a betting angle, highlighting key statistical advantages and prop value.

UK vs ISU Injury Reports: Is Joshua Jefferson Playing

The 2026 March Madness injuries showed that both the Wildcats and Cyclones were missing bit parts heading into the tournament. The Cyclones, however, got a massive scare on Friday when Joshua Jefferson – a serious contender in the Wooden Award odds for national player of the year – went down with an ankle injury.

To say Jefferson is “important” to the Cyclones would be a massive understatement.

As of Sunday morning, Jefferson was still considered a game-time decision. But head coach TJ Otzelberger has described him as “unlikely” to suit up.

Iowa State vs Kentucky Picks

Moneyline Pick: Iowa State (67¢ at Kalshi)

My primary prediction is taking Iowa State on the moneyline. Even with Joshua Jefferson likely sidelined, I expect Milan Momcilovic to slide to the four, creating spacing nightmares for Kentucky.

To understand the exact statistical mismatches driving my analysis, let’s look at the season-long metrics.

Team Stats Comparison

Top Player-Prop Pick: Momcilovic Over 21.5 Points (-108 at Sleeper)

From a player prop perspective, I am heavily targeting the OVER on Momcilovic’s points. Kentucky’s porous defense allows opponents to operate with immense freedom, yielding clean looks and a high expected FG%.

Momcilovic (17.1 PPG) will be the biggest beneficiary of a compromised – or entirely absent – Jefferson. Expect him to be the focal point and feast on a porous UK defense.

Iowa State vs Kentucky Odds & Lines

Prediction Markets

UK vs ISU Odds

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Iowa St

68%

ISU -4.5

53%

Under 146.5

51%

Over 146.5

50%

UK +4.5

48%

Kentucky

33%

Predict

With Jefferson unlikely to play, Iowa State is roughly a -200 favorite at Kalshi, currently trading at 67¢ to win. A Kentucky victory is trading at 34¢ (equal to +194 odds).

The spread positions ISU as a 4.5-point favorite while the game total sits at 146.5.

The Cyclones are currently the eighth-favorite in the March Madness champion odds at an average of +1600. Kentucky remains a massive longshot at roughly +15000.

Odds and commentary as of 12:03 pm ET. Click “PREDICT” in the graphic above to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code.

Iowa State vs Kentucky Betting Splits

Sunday’s college basketball public betting splits show that moneyline bettors are overwhelmingly backing the favorite. Currently, 81.11% of the tickets and 79.84% of the overall stake support Iowa State to win outright.

The point spread market tells a similar story but reveals larger wagers backing the favorite. While 60.1% of spread tickets are laying the points with Iowa State, the money percentage jumps to 69.36%. This near 10% gap indicates that bettors with deeper pockets trust them to cover.

The total points market is where my prediction fades the casual consensus. The public prefers a lower-scoring game, with 56.01% of tickets on the Under. However, the money percentage is essentially a coin flip, showing 50.51% on the Under and 49.49% on the Over.

This split signifies that larger, sharper wagers are hitting the Over, pulling the financial handle toward the middle. This data bolsters my lean towards the over in what I expect to be a high-scoring shootout between two elite offensive units.