Pirates vs Mets Picks & Predictions – How to Bet Skenes vs Peralta on Opening Day

2025 NL Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes will make his second consecutive Opening Day start today.

The Pirates’ ace will take on Freddy Peralta and the New York Mets. First pitch is set for 1:15 pm, ET, from Citi Field.

Skenes (10-10 last season) has a career 1.96 ERA, the lowest in modern history for a starting pitcher through 55 starts. He is coming off a successful stint with Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, where he helped the US eliminate the Dominican Republic in the semifinals.

Peralta (17-6, 2.60 ERA last year) finished 5th in NL Cy Young Award voting last season with the Brewers. The Mets traded for him in January.

Our betting focus is on finding the most value for the pitching prop market for Skenes vs. Peralta on Opening Day.

Skenes vs Peralta Pitching Props

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of March 25, 2026.

The pitching props market dictates the true narrative of this game, highlighting the stark contrast in expected workloads. Skenes enters Citi Field boasting an elite 10.359 K/9 and 216 total strikeouts across 187.2 innings in 2025. Despite these dominant metrics, sharp money hammered his strikeout under, pushing the market average and resting at -137 at DraftKings.

Conversely, the market respects Peralta’s swing-and-miss stuff, juicing his strikeout over (-159). However, sportsbooks are exceedingly bearish on his ability to navigate the Pittsburgh batting order multiple times. Peralta’s total outs under sits at a glaring -185, signaling strong syndicate confidence that the Mets will utilize a short leash on Opening Day before turning to their bullpen.

Skenes surrendered just 0.72 hits per inning pitched last season. Against a starting arm that systematically suppresses opposing lineups to a sub-.200 batting average, laying heavy juice on any batter to reach safely is a negative-EV proposition.

Pick 2: Paul Skenes – Over 16.5 Total Pitcher Outs (+100 at DraftKings)

Cashing this ticket would require Skenes pitching into the 6th inning. Early-season pitch counts certainly could come into play today.

Skenes has faced the Mets twice in his young career — striking out 14 in 13.0 innings. Obviously, the lineups change — the Mets added Pete Alonso, for instance — but our analysis projects Skenes to have similar success today.

Skenes logged 187.2 innings across 32 starts previously, equating to roughly 17.5 outs per appearance. With a microscopic 0.948 WHIP and only 42 walks surrendered, Skenes rarely creates the self-inflicted traffic that forces an early exit. He averaged 93.6 pitches per start, pointing to a manager willing to let him work deep into the late innings. Getting flat +100 odds on an ace who historically clears this threshold in 65.6% of his starts is an essential portfolio addition.

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Pick 3: Freddy Peralta – Under 15.5 Total Pitcher Outs (-185 at DraftKings)

While laying -185 requires steep capital, the math supports the juice. Peralta struggles with pitch efficiency, and the Mets’ analytical department has historically capped his exposure the third time through the batting order. The 60% situational trend pointing toward early home exits solidifies this as a high-probability anchor leg for parlays. It’s worth noting that Peralta was 2-0 vs. the Pirates last season in 3 starts with the Brewers. He has pitched against Pittsburgh 25 times in his career — more than any other team.

Mets vs Pirates Injury Report & Updates

The Mets are navigating severe structural damage to their pitching staff. High-leverage relievers Dedniel Núñez and Reed Garrett are out, leaving New York’s bullpen depth thin. Because oddsmakers already project Peralta to have a short outing, this depleted relief corps will be forced into extended action against the Pirates, creating a potential late-game edge for live bettors tracking Pittsburgh’s moneyline.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of March 25, 2026, at 10:43 AM ET.