Poland vs Albania Predictions, Betting Lines & Injuries (WC Qual. on March 26)

• Poland is a solid -145 moneyline favorite over Albania in a UEFA World Cup Qualifying semifinal
• Poland has just one loss in eight qualifying matches
• See below for my Poland vs Albania prediction, as well as updated betting lines and injuries

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Path B in UEFA World Cup Qualifying will be settled shortly. Semifinal action begins Thursday, with Poland set as a massive home favorite as they host Albania in one of two semifinal games.

The math is simple: win and advance, or lose and go home. The winner will battle the winner of Ukraine vs Sweden on March 31 to determine the World Cup qualifier.

Action kicks off at 3:45pm ET from PGE Narodowy in Warsaw, Poland, with broadcast coverage available on FS2 and Fubo TV.

Poland vs Albania Picks & Predictions

• Under 2.5 goals (-170 at DraftKings)

Save for a win over Andorra in March, where Albania won 3-0, this team has generally stayed in low-scoring matches. Each of Albania’s other seven qualifying results have been two goals or less.

While it might not be the most pleasant form of football, Albania stays in its matches with elite defensive structure. They’ve allowed just five total goals and netted seven of their own.

Getting out in front suits them well: they’ve scored five of their seven goals in the first first half, and then go into a shell and nurse the lead. That’s important to note, as Albania has just 27 total shots over eight matches.

Poland has found itself in more offensive-forward matches, and they’re the ones doing most of the damage, scoring 14 goals across eight qualifying matches. They’re working for those chances, as the team has created 137 total shots, with 52 on target.

Their most recent match in November against Malta finished in a 3-2 win, the third time in qualifying they’ve combined with their opponent to top the 2.5 goal total set for Thursday.

Robert Lewandowski is Poland’s star difference-maker, leading the team with four goals, while Jakub Kaminski has two goals. That pair alone provides more creativity that Albania simply lacks. Rey Manaj is their leading goal scorer (3), and Kristjan Asllani has two.

But defense is still a staple of Poland’s game, holding six of eight opponents in qualifying to one goal or less.

Unfortunately for the Albanians, Poland has shown to play a stout defensive style in the opening halves of their matches, as evidenced by their three goals allowed in eight games.

If Poland can stay patient, I like them limiting Alabania’s opportunities and taking advantage of a team that doesn’t want to come forward in the back half of this match.

If they strike early, even better: Poland wins 75% of its matches when building a 1-0 lead at home. No matter how it plays out, I see these teams keeping it low scoring in Warsaw.

Poland vs Albania Odds

Poland enters the match at a short -145 on the moneyline, while picking Albania to win outright pays out at healthy +475 odds. Wagering on a draw gets you +275 odds.

The total is set at 2.5 goals, with the Over paying out at +135 and the Under at -170.

Odds as of March 26. Make sure you use SBD’s exclusive DraftKings promo code to bet on World Cup qualifying.

Poland vs Albania Injury Report

Albania will be without midfielder Medon Berisha, who suffered a rupture of a thigh tendon during training, ending his season with club team Lecce and taking him out of World Cup qualifying.

Poland has its full slate of players for this one. With no lingering injury concerns to disrupt their rhythm, they can deploy their optimal starting XI and run their offense at maximum capacity.