By Brady Trettenero in NHL Hockey
Published:
Pittsburgh (38-21-16) rolls into Tampa riding a two-game heater, outscoring opponents 13-4 across an 8-3 blowout of the Islanders and a 5-1 rout of Detroit. Tampa Bay (46-22-6) is looking to bounce back after a 4-1 loss to Montreal, with both clubs holding down second place in their respective divisions.
The Penguins will be without Bryan Rust (lower body), who was scratched before Tuesday’s win. Puck drop is at 7:00 pm ET from Benchmark International Arena.
My Penguins vs Lightning prediction, picks and NHL odds are below.
My Penguins vs Lightning prediction is the over. Pittsburgh games have been going over at an absurd rate, cashing in 12 of their last 14 overall and nine of their last 10 as an underdog.
The road splits are even more convincing. The over is 7-for-7 in Pittsburgh’s last seven road games and has hit in six straight when the Pens are a road underdog. Tampa Bay adds fuel to the fire, with the over cashing in four of their last six following a loss and three of the last four head-to-head meetings.
These are two of the highest-scoring teams in the Eastern Conference. Tampa Bay puts up 3.57 goals per game (3rd) and Pittsburgh is right behind at 3.47 (6th). Both power plays rank in the top 10, and both penalty kills are top five.
The gap is in net. Pittsburgh’s .889 team save percentage ranks 21st, while Tampa Bay sits at .898 (8th). Stuart Skinner has been leaky enough this season to keep the Pens in high-scoring games, and that’s where the over value lives.
I’ve got two Penguins vs Lightning picks on the player prop side.
Crosby has recorded an assist in seven straight games against top-10 scoring defenses, averaging 1.14 per game during that stretch. Tampa Bay ranks fourth in goals against, so this is exactly the caliber of opponent where Crosby’s playmaking tends to spike.
Plus money on a 100% hit rate in this spot is the kind of value you have to take.
Wrapping up my Penguins vs Lightning picks, I’m going over on Raddysh’s shot total. The Tampa Bay defenseman has cleared 2.5 shots in 11 of his last 13 games following a Lightning loss, averaging 3.62 per game in those spots.
Over his last nine games regardless of situation, Raddysh has gone over in seven of them while averaging 4.11 shots per contest. He anchors Tampa Bay’s top pair alongside J.J. Moser and will see heavy minutes against a Pittsburgh team that allows 27.13 shots per game.
The interactive widget above will update automatically as the Penguins vs Lightning odds move throughout the day.
Tampa Bay’s -170 moneyline carries an implied probability of about 63%, while Pittsburgh’s +145 gives the Pens roughly a 41% implied chance. The Lightning are 6-1-2 in their last nine games and have home ice, but both previous meetings this season were one-goal games.
The puck line is set at -1.5, with Tampa Bay at +146 at FanDuel and Pittsburgh at -160 on the +1.5. Given how tight these teams have played each other, paying up for the -1.5 puck line on either side feels risky.
The total sits at 6.5, with the over at -115 at DraftKings and the under at +105 on Caesars. That’s where I’m playing this game.
Odds as of Apr. 2. Grab the bet365 bonus code for a bonus to bet on the NHL tonight.
Skinner is confirmed for Pittsburgh after stopping 22 of 23 shots (.957 SV%) in Tuesday’s 5-1 win over Detroit. His March was rougher at 3.27 GAA and .885 save percentage (3-3-3), but the confidence from that Detroit start should carry over.
Vasilevskiy is the likely starter for Tampa Bay. The 34-win netminder owns a .908 save percentage and 2.37 GAA, though his recent numbers have dipped. He posted a 2.64 GAA and .896 save percentage in March (7-5-1), his second straight month below .900.
Both teams are jockeying for position in the NHL playoff bracket heading into the final week of the regular season.
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Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
