Skip to content

NASCAR DFS Picks – Food City 500 Projections, Lineup & Strategy

By Phil Bobbitt in Racing

Published:


William Byron on-track at Martinsville (2026).
Mar 29, 2026; Martinsville, Virginia, USA; Hendrick Motorsports driver William Byron (24) exits turn two at Martinsville Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images
  • DraftKings is offering $100,000 to first place on a $20 entry for the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway
  • Ryan Blaney starts from pole and headlines a lineup built around dominator points and back-of-the-grid place differential
  • Below, see our NASCAR DFS picks, projections, lineup, and strategy for the Food City 500

There’s a $20 entry contest with $100,000 to first on DraftKings for Bristol, and somehow this slate is competing with The Masters for attention.

Which means two things.

One, a large portion of the betting public is currently locked in on polite applause and leaderboard watching.

Two, there’s a very real chance this contest doesn’t fill while everyone is glued to Augusta. We call that an overlay in the biz.

That’s where we come in.

While the golf world is debating green speeds and back-nine pressure, we’ll be watching 37 cars rip around a half-mile concrete bowl where tempers don’t last long and neither do brake pads.

It’s loud, it’s chaotic, and it’s about as far from a gentleman’s sport as you can get.

But it does pay $100K.

Food City 500 Expert DFS Lineup and Projections

DriverStarting PositionSalary
Ryan Blaney1$10,700
William Byron34$10,000
Ryan Preece17$7,500
Bubba Wallace12$7,300
Josh Berry25$7,100
Alex Bowman27$7,000

DraftKings salaries as of race week. Build your Food City 500 NASCAR DFS lineup at the top daily fantasy sports apps before the green flag drops at Bristol.

  • DRAFTKINGS FANTASY

    GET 3 TICKETS TO PLAY FREE FOR A SHARE OF MILLIONS!

  • UNDERDOG FANTASY

    PLAY $5 FANTASY ENTRIES, GET $50 IN BONUS FANTASY ENTRIES W/ CODE SBD!

  • BETR PICKS

    UP TO $200 BACK IN BONUSES + FREE PICK!

  • CHALKBOARD FANTASY SPORTS

    GET A FREE PICK + DEPOSIT MATCH UP TO $100!

  • PRIZEPICKS (AZ, CO, DC, DE, IL, KY, MA, ME, NM, NY)

    ENTER $5 CONTEST, GET $50 INSTANTLY

  • SLEEPER FANTASY SPORTS

    $20 NO-DEPOSIT BONUS & 100% DEPOSIT MATCH

  • DABBLE FANTASY

    GET $10 WHEN YOU SIGN UP - NO DEPOSIT NECESSARY!

  • DRAFTKINGS PICK6

    PLAY $5, GET $50 INSTANTLY IN BONUS PICKS!

  • BOOM FANTASY

    $100 RISK-FREE TOKEN

  • SPLASH SPORTS DFS

    100% DEPOSIT MATCH UP TO $50 + 100% QUICKPICKS BOOST

  • DRAFTKINGS DFS T&Cs: Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Help is available for problem gambling. Call (888) 789-7777 or visit ccpg.org (CT). 18+ in most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibility restrictions apply. Void where prohibited. 1 per new DraftKings customer. Min. $5 deposit req. 1 $4 ticket for an MLB contest, 1 $3 ticket for an NBA contest, and 1 $3 ticket for an NHL contest rewarded. Ticket rewards are single-use site credits valid for use on eligible DraftKings contests. Ticket rewards expire 14 days (336 hours) after being issued. Terms: www.draftkings.com/promotions. Ends 4/30/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

  • DRAFTKINGS PICK6 T&Cs: Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Help is available for problem gambling. Call (888) 789-7777 or visit ccpg.org (CT). 18+ (19+ AL/NE, 21+ AZ/MA/VA). Valid only where Pick6 operates, see dkng.co/pick6states. Void in NY, ONT, and where prohibited. Eligibility restrictions apply. 1 per new DraftKings customer. Min. $5 deposit req. Receive $25 issued as non-withdrawable Bonus Picks that expire in 14 days; AND 100% single-use Winnings Boost Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing entry. Boost reward issued as cash and only applies to winnings. Max. $100 boost reward. Token expires in 14 days. 14 days = 336 hours. Ends 3/29/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Terms: pick6.draftkings.com/promos. Sponsored by DK.

Food City 500 DFS Strategy: Driver Breakdown

Ryan Blaney ($10,700) – Starting 1st

Let’s not overthink this.

Blaney is on the pole and may not be caught until they’re unloading haulers in Kansas. His long-run practice data was borderline offensive. We ran it through the model, checked it again, then briefly considered whether the spreadsheet had developed sentience.

Even if NASCAR throws a late caution because they simply cannot help themselves, Blaney should have already vacuumed up so many laps led and fast laps that it won’t matter.

He’s your primary dominator. Full stop.

William Byron ($10,000) – Starting 34th

Ah yes, the “please don’t go a lap down immediately” play.

Byron starting 34th is the kind of DFS gift that usually comes with fine print. But this isn’t some back marker…this is a Hendrick rocket ship buried in traffic.

Yes, there’s risk at Bristol. If he gets trapped early, it just might be curtains. But if he survives the opening chaos, the position-differential ceiling is massive, and that’s how you break a slate.

We’re betting on talent over traffic. Pray accordingly.

SLEEPER
FANTASY SPORTS


Get a $20 No-Deposit Bonus & 100% First-Deposit Match Up To $100!

LOCK IN PROMO
CODE: SBDXL
CODE: SBDXL
SIGNUP OFFER
100% MATCH
UP TO $100

+ $20 NO DEPOSIT BONUS!

GET OFFER

Ryan Preece ($7,500) – Starting 17th

Short track guy. Grinder. Professional nuisance.

Preece tends to show up at places where tire wear and driver input actually matter. Bristol isn’t exactly his bread-and-butter flat track, but the skillset translates.

He’s your mid-range stability play who won’t kill you…which, at Bristol, is a glowing endorsement.

Bubba Wallace ($7,300) – Starting 12th

Bubba Wallace experience:

Step 1: Show legitimate speed.
Step 2: Make you believe.
Step 3: Do something that makes you question how we ended up here.

That said, the 23XI cars have real speed this year. Wallace had a top-10 practice session, and both models have him flirting with the top 10.

If he keeps the fenders on it, this is a smash value.

If not…well…you knew what you signed up for.

Josh Berry ($7,100) – Starting 25th

Short track ace. Period.

Berry is one of those guys who just understands how to get around places like this. He’s not flashy, but he’s efficient, and at Bristol that matters more than whatever highlight reel nonsense is happening up front.

He’s here for position differential and sneaky top-15 upside.

Alex Bowman ($7,000) – Starting 27th

Bowman is back after dealing with vertigo, which is…not ideal when your job involves flying into corners at Bristol.

But here’s the thing. The model loves him. Like, uncomfortably loves him.

Concrete tracks like Bristol and Dover? That’s his lane. The car should be fast, the starting spot gives him place-differential upside, and ownership should be low because people are understandably nervous.

Let’s run it back:

Fast car
Position differential upside
Track history
Low ownership

“Fo. Fo. Fo.”

If that joke missed, so be it. Bowman won’t.

CHALKBOARD
FANTASY SPORTS


Get a Free Pick When You Sign Up at Chalkboard
- Plus 100% First Deposit Match! -

SIGN UP
CODE: SBD
CODE: SBD
SIGNUP OFFER
DEPOSIT MATCH
UP TO $100

+ FREE PICK AT SIGNUP

PLAY NOW

Final Thoughts on Food City 500 DFS Strategy

At some point Sunday afternoon, this race is going to unravel.

It always does.

A mistimed lap down, a guy running out of patience, a restart that turns into a parking lot…something flips, and suddenly the entire slate is hanging by a thread.

That’s Bristol, baby.

So our goal isn’t perfection, it’s survival with upside.

Blaney controls the front. Byron claws forward. The middle holds steady. And Bowman…just quietly reminds everyone he’s really good at this place.

If that happens, we’re not just live.

We’re dangerous.

Now, let’s go see if anyone bothered to enter this contest while they were watching golf.

Want to bet the Food City 500 outright? Head to the best betting sites for the latest NASCAR odds and futures.

  • BETMGM SPORTSBOOK

    USE CODE SBD1500 TO GET UP TO $1,500 PAID BACK

  • BET365 SPORTSBOOK

    BET $10 & GET $200 IN BONUS BETS WITH CODE DIME365

  • THESCORE BET SPORTSBOOK

    USE CODE DIME TO GET 100% BET RESET UP TO $1,000

  • DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

    BET $5 & GET $300 IN BONUS BETS IF YOUR BET WINS!

  • FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK

    BET $5 & GET $250 IN BONUS BETS IF YOUR BET WINS!

  • CAESARS SPORTSBOOK

    USE CODE SBDDYW & DOUBLE YOUR WINNINGS ON YOUR FIRST 10 WAGERS!

  • FANATICS SPORTSBOOK

    GET 100% BET MATCH UP TO $100 FOR 10 DAYS

  • DRAFTKINGS T&Cs: GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/PR/WY). Void in NH/OR/ONT/PR. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new DraftKings Sportsbook customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Bet must settle by and Token expires 5/3/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 4/26/26 at 11:59 PM ET.

  • BET365 SPORTSBOOK T&Cs: GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL OR TEXT 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ/CO/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/MO/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only (18+ KY). Must be present in AZ/CO/IA/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA (select parishes)/MD/MO/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA. Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New customers only. T&CS, time limits and exclusions apply.

  • BETMGM T&Cs: Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (Available in the US), Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.

Phil Bobbitt

Phil Bobbitt is a motorsports betting analyst and recurring guest on CBS Sports HQ, The Early Edge, and VSiN’s A Numbers Game. He and his pal Steve developed a racing algorithm that’s profited over 260 units and $1 million in DFS winnings since 2020.

Gambling

Recommended Reading