Mets vs Dodgers Predictions, Best Bets & Starting Pitchers

Published: April 15, 2026 at 7:02 pm EDT

Shohei Ohtani gets the start tonight for the Dodgers. — Apr 8, 2026; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Shohei Ohtani (17) pitches to the Toronto Blue Jays during the first inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

The Los Angeles Dodgers go for the sweep against the reeling Mets
Shohei Ohtani pitches against the Mets for the first time in his career
Back the Dodgers -1.5 on the runline (+105) and taking the Under 8 total runs (-115)

Some nights just mean more. Such is the case tonight, when Dodgers two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani faces the New York Mets for the first time.

Ohtani has made 96 starts in his MLB pitching career, but never against the Mets. He’ll go against Clay Holmes, who left his most recent start because of hamstring tightness. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is at 10 pm, ET, on ESPN.

The 2-time defending World Series champion Dodgers (13-4) have the best record in baseball. The Mets (7-11) have lost seven in a row and continue to struggle without injured star Juan Soto.

We break down tonight’s Mets at Dodgers matchup and offer the best betting advice.

Mets vs Dodgers Odds

The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change

The Dodgers enter this late-night matchup as heavy consensus -208 moneyline favorites, a price that clearly reflects their league-best record and Ohtani’s unblemished ERA. The Mets are steep road underdogs at +172. The total runs market opened at 8 and has remained completely frozen, never deviating from its initial Over -105 / Under -115 pricing. The only notable adjustment occurred on the moneyline, where the home team opened as even larger favorites at -220 before dipping down to the current -208 figure, signaling some early buyback on the underdog.

Shohei Ohtani vs Clay Holmes 2026 Stats

Statistic	Shohei Ohtani (LAD)	Clay Holmes (NYM)
Record	1-0	2-1
ERA	0.00	1.50
WHIP	0.750	1.111
FIP	3.08	3.88
xFIP	4.68	4.00
K/9	6.00	6.00
BB/9	3.00	4.00
Opponent BA	.119	.188
SO-BB%	6.1%	0.0%

Clay Holmes vs Dodgers

GP	GS	W	L	IP	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	HR	H	AVG	OPS
8	1	1	1	10.1	4.35	1.65	9	7	0	10	.250	.675

Dodgers Hitters vs Clay Holmes

Player	Pos	PA	AB	H	HR	RBI	AVG	OPS
Teoscar Hernández	RF	8	7	1	0	1	.143	.393
Kyle Tucker	RF	7	7	2	1	1	.286	1.000
Freddie Freeman	1B	5	4	0	0	0	.000	.200
Shohei Ohtani	DH	4	2	0	0	0	.000	.500
Andy Pages	CF	2	2	0	0	0	.000	.000
Max Muncy	3B	2	1	1	0	0	1.000	2.000
Miguel Rojas	2B	2	2	0	0	0	.000	.000
Alex Call	RF	1	1	1	0	0	1.000	2.000
Santiago Espinal	3B	1	1	0	0	0	.000	.000

Mets Hitters vs Shohei Ohtani

Player	Pos	PA	AB	H	RBI	AVG	OPS
Marcus Semien	2B	22	20	4	0	.200	.473
Luis Robert Jr.	CF	8	8	1	0	.125	.250
Bo Bichette	SS	6	5	2	2	.400	1.100

Ohtani Pitching Game Log With Dodgers

Date	Season	Opponent	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	Dec
06/16/2025	2025	vs SDP	1.0	2	1	0	0	0	ND
06/22/2025	2025	vs WAS	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	ND
06/28/2025	2025	@ KCR	2.0	1	0	1	1	0	ND
07/05/2025	2025	vs HOU	2.0	1	0	0	3	0	ND
07/12/2025	2025	@ SFG	3.0	1	0	1	4	0	ND
07/21/2025	2025	vs MIN	3.0	4	1	1	3	1	ND
07/30/2025	2025	@ CIN	3.0	5	2	2	4	0	ND
08/06/2025	2025	vs STL	4.0	2	1	0	8	0	ND
08/13/2025	2025	@ LAA	4.1	5	4	0	7	1	ND
08/20/2025	2025	@ COL	4.0	9	5	0	3	0	L
08/27/2025	2025	vs CIN	5.0	2	1	2	9	1	W
09/05/2025	2025	@ BAL	3.2	3	0	1	5	0	ND
09/16/2025	2025	vs PHI	5.0	0	0	1	5	0	ND
09/23/2025	2025	@ ARI	6.0	5	0	0	8	0	ND
03/31/2026	2026	vs CLE	6.0	1	0	3	6	0	W
04/08/2026	2026	@ TOR	6.0	4	0	1	2	0	ND

Dodgers vs Mets Predictions & Best Bets

The Spread/Runline: Dodgers -1.5 (+105 at Bet365)

When analyzing the vast statistical chasm between these two rosters, taking the Dodgers on the runline emerges as the most logical angle for this matchup. Removing the sportsbook juice, the true vig-free probability gives the Dodgers a commanding 64.75% chance to win outright, compared to the Mets’ 35.25%. However, finding the best value requires looking past the steep moneyline. The Dodgers are cruising with an impressive .838 team OPS and a robust .279 batting average. Conversely, over 614 at-bats this season, the Mets are mustering a meager .223 batting average and a .336 slugging percentage. Fading a Mets squad that has won just 20.0% of its games as an underdog provides a massive statistical edge.

With the Mets struggling to generate consistent run support, laying the 1.5 runs with the home favorites at plus-money offers excellent value.

The Total: Under 8 (-115 at DraftKings)

Leaning toward the Under is the most fundamentally sound play for the total, backed by a 51.08% vig-free implied probability. Ohtani has been virtually untouchable, carrying a flawless 0.00 ERA across 36 innings. Meanwhile, Holmes logs a sparkling 1.50 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. With the Mets striking out swinging 328 times already, do not expect an offensive explosion.

Mets vs Dodgers Best Player Prop Bets

Shohei Ohtani Under 6.5 Pitcher Strikeouts (+120 at DraftKings): Ohtani is currently averaging exactly 6.00 strikeouts per nine innings. Finding plus-money value on him staying under 6.5 punchouts is an excellent spot, especially since his 6.1% SO-BB rate suggests he relies on inducing weak contact over overpowering swing-and-miss stuff.

Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+118 at Caesars): Freeman continues to anchor the lineup, carrying a .764 OPS. With the surrounding protection in the batting order, backing him to record an extra-base hit or multiple singles is a high-value investment.

Mets vs Dodgers Betting Trends

Overall Record: The Dodgers have won 76.5% of their games this season (13-4).
As a Favorite: The Dodgers are highly profitable when laying odds, winning 71.4% of their games as a moneyline favorite.
Recent Form: The Dodgers have won 80.0% of their last 10 matchups.
Mets as Underdogs: The Mets have struggled immensely when oddsmakers expect them to lose, securing victories in only 20.0% of contests where they were underdogs.
Totals (Over): The Over has hit in just 35.3% of Dodgers games and only 33.3% of Mets games this season.

Public Betting Splits & Market Action

Breaking down the MLB public betting ticket percentages and the money percentages reveals exactly how the market is reacting to this pitching mismatch. An overwhelming 85.2% of the moneyline tickets and 76.7% of the total money are backing the Dodgers to win outright. The public is also showing no hesitation in laying the run-and-a-half, with 91.3% of the runline tickets and 86.6% of the runline money banking on a multi-run victory.

Where our prediction diverges from the public consensus is on the game total. Currently, 77.1% of the betting tickets are hammering the Over. Yet, the Over accounts for only 64.5% of the total cash. While this does not reach the 60% threshold required to qualify as a true sharp-versus-public discrepancy (where the ticket majority and money majority are on opposite sides), the 12.6% disparity indicates that larger average wagers are quietly backing the Under. By trusting the starting pitchers to limit RBI opportunities and focusing on the underlying metrics, we are comfortably going against the grain of the casual public.

Chris Wright

A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Chris Wright is an Evergreen and AI editor for Saturday Down South, Saturday Tradition, Crossing Broad, Sports Betting Dime and ESNY.

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