Flyers vs Penguins Game 4 Prediction, Lineups & Same-Game Parlay (Apr. 25)

• The Flyers are -120 moneyline favorites in Game 4 of their 1st Round series vs the Penguins
• Philadelphia has outscored Pittsburgh 11-4 through three games
• See below for my favorite Flyers vs Penguins Game 4 prediction, plus lineups and same-game parlay picks

The Penguins are looking to stave off elimination tonight, heading into Game 4 trailing their best-of-7 1st Round series 3-0 to the Flyers. Online sportsbooks don’t like their chances, pegging Philly as the favorite in the latest NHL odds. I happen to disagree with the line, and don’t expect Pittsburgh to go quietly, which is why I’m betting on them to stay alive.

Puck drop for Game 4 of this Eastern Conference series is scheduled for 8 pm ET from Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, PA. TBS, truTV and HBO Max will handle broadcast duties across America, while Sportsnet will carry the game for Canadian viewers.

Here is my favorite Flyers vs Penguins Game 4 prediction, plus lineups and same-game parlay picks for April 25th.

Flyers vs Penguins Game 4 Prediction

• Pittsburgh Penguins Moneyline (+100 at Bet365)

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My favorite bet tonight is on the Pens moneyline at +100 odds. I’m not expecting them to shock the hockey world and come all the way back from their 0-3 deficit, but I am willing to bet they extend this series at least one more game. The Penguins are 0-6 all-time in series where they fall behind 3-0, while the Flyers are a perfect 10-0 in franchise history when taking a 3-0 series stranglehold.

On paper, this series hasn’t been close. Philly has outscored Pittsburgh 11-4, holding Sidney Crosby to just a single point. The Penguins have been burned by some pretty underwhelming goaltending by Stuart Skinner, while Dan Vladar has stood on his head at the other end.

A closer look at the numbers however, suggest this series should be much closer than it’s been. Pittsburgh has underperformed its expected goal total by over 3 goals. The Flyers on the other hand, have outperformed their expected goals total by 2 goals at even strength. The Penguins have been the better team 5-on-5, controlling 60% of the puck possession and generating 5 more high danger scoring chances.

Special teams have badly hurt Pittsburgh as well, as no team has taken more penalties. They’ve killed off just 80% of those Flyer man advantages, while the Pens potent offensive attack has converted on only 16.7% of their powerplay attempts. Given that Pittsburgh ranked seventh in expected goals during the regular season, and Philly was bottom-11 in that category, I expect the Pens goal total to positively regress, and the Flyers to go in the other direction.

Another reason to be optimistic about that is the health of Vladar. He hasn’t practiced in multiple days due to an undisclosed injury. He is slated to start tonight, but it’s fair to downgrade him slightly due to this mystery ailment.

Flyers vs Penguins Game 4 Same-Game Parlay

Moving over to the NHL props streets, where I’m combining Bryan Rust 1+ points with the Pens moneyline for a +180 same-game parlay. Rust ranks behind only Crosby in time on ice among Pittsburgh forwards, and sits third on the team in shot attempts and second in shots on goal. So far, he’s managed only a goal and an assist through three games, but the volume and opportunity point to him finding his way back on the scoresheet tonight.

Flyers vs Penguins Odds

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Flyers vs Penguins Game 4 Lineups

Skinner’s underwhelming postseason play is nothing new. He struggled badly during Edmonton’s Cup Final runs in previous years and it looks like Pittsburgh has finally had enough. They’re electing to start Arturs Silovs tonight in an effort to shake things up. Silovs was 19-12-8 during the regular season, with a 3.07 GAA and .888 save percentage. He made one start versus the Flyers, holding them to 2 goals on 34 shots in an OT loss.

Elsewhere, the rosters for both teams should look very similar to Game 3. The winner of this series will most likely run into one of the Stanley Cup odds favorites in Carolina, barring a shocking collapse by the Canes to the Senators.