T-wolves vs Nuggets Predictions & Injury Reports (Game 5)
By Chris Amberley in NBA Basketball
Published:
- The Nuggets are 11.5-point favorites at home versus the T-Wolves tonight in Game 5 of their 1st Round series
- Minnesota superstar Anthony Edwards is out (knee), as is Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles)
- Keep reading for the top T-wolves vs Nuggets predictions, plus the latest injury reports and odds for Game 5
The T-Wolves head to Denver tonight for Game 5 of their 1st Round series versus the Nuggets. Minnesota swept Games 3 and 4 at home to take a 3-1 series stranglehold, but the wins came at a big cost. Anthony Edwards is out for tonight’s game with a knee injury, while Donte DiVincenzo is lost for the season after blowing out his Achilles.
As a result, online sportsbooks aren’t expecting much of a fight from the T-wolves in the latest NBA odds. Denver is laying 11.5 points at home, which feels a bit high given what we’ve seen from the Nuggets so far during the playoffs.
Tip-off for this pivotal postseason clash is set for 7:30 pm PT, 10:30 pm ET from Ball Arena, with live national broadcast coverage on NBC and Peacock, and TSN handling Canadian TV duties.
Keep reading for my favorite T-wolves vs Nuggets predictions, along with the latest injury reports and odds for Game 5.
T-wolves vs Nuggets Injury Report
Missing Edwards completely unravels Minnesota’s established game plan. Without their dynamic guard to collapse the defense, they must pivot entirely to a frontcourt-heavy approach. DiVincenzo’s absence meanwhile, is a crushing blow to the T-wolves depth. He was averaging 14+ points per game before going down, shooting a blistering 47.8% from three.
T-wolves vs Nuggets Odds
I’m betting Minnesota +11.5 tonight over at Kalshi. The prediction market is trading that line at 52 cents, which is the equivalent of -108 odds in traditional sports betting terms. I’m also betting under 223.5 points at Kalshi at the equivalent of -113 odds, as most commercial sportsbooks have the line set at a point lower.
T-wolves vs Nuggets Predictions
- Timberwolves +11.5 (52¢ at Kalshi)
- Under 223.5 (47¢ at Kalshi)
- Nikola Jokić Over 9.5 Assists (+110 on DraftKings)
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Laying 11.5 points tonight with the Nuggets carries significant risk. Denver entered the postseason as a top NBA Championship odds contender, but their ability to cover has fallen off a cliff recently; they are just 3-8 ATS as a favorite over their last 11 games. On the flip side, the Timberwolves have thrived in this exact spot, going 3-1 ATS as an underdog over their last four games. Even though Minnesota has lost their last four games on the road following a win, they possess enough defensive pride and frontcourt size to keep this contest from turning into a complete blowout.
Shifting to the game total, where history strongly suggests a defensive grind is on the horizon. Unders are 4-1 in Denver’s last five games against Minnesota. Furthermore, the under has hit in three of the Nuggets last four playoff games. With the road team missing a massive chunk of its scoring production, points will be at an absolute premium.
With Edwards sidelined, Minnesota’s defense will likely have to collapse harder in the paint to compensate for perimeter defensive shifts, opening up passing lanes. Getting plus-money on the best passing big man in NBA history at home facing elimination is an exceptional edge. Jokić will pick apart a scrambling rotation, just like he’s done to many teams this season.
Joker averaged 11 assists during the regular season, and cleared this line in 14 of 16 games he started and finished before falling short in Games 2, 3 and 4. Without Edwards and DiVincenzo, Minnesota’s ceiling is capped, reducing the need for Jokić to put up big scoring totals. He can sit back and run the offense from his point forward position, picking a depleted T-wolves defense apart.
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.