NASCAR DFS Picks – Wurth 400 Projections, Lineup & Strategy
By Phil Bobbitt in Racing
Published:
- DraftKings is offering $100,000 to first place on a $20 entry for the Wurth 400 at Texas Motor Speedway
- Five of our six drivers start 25th or deeper, leaning into place differential over dominator points on a track that doesn’t reward clean runs up front
- Below, see our NASCAR DFS picks, projections, lineup, and strategy for the Wurth 400
If you’ve been following along with the last few NASCAR DFS articles, you probably thought the refrigerator saga had finally come to an end.
It has not.
The delivery guys showed up, hauled the old, dysfunctional cold box out of my house, and I haven’t seen it since. No ceremony. No goodbye. Just gone. In its place? A brand-new model. Premium ice maker. Shiny stainless steel. The works.
They install it, call me over like they’re unveiling a piece of modern art, and start walking me through all the features.
And then, almost as an afterthought, they casually mention it was “lightly damaged” during unloading.
Lightly damaged.
Which must mean it was attacked with a hatchet, because there’s now a four-inch slice carved into what was a flawless door roughly 20 minutes earlier.
The solution?
“Yeah, you can probably just cover it with a magnet.”
Cover it with a magnet he says.
So naturally, I interpreted that as: call customer care and schedule another delivery for Wednesday. Pray for me.
What does this have to do with DFS? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. But at this point, this is either content continuity or a cry for help. Possibly both. Especially now that my refrigerator apparently has built-in ventilation on the front panel.
Anyway…here’s the lineup.
Wurth 400 Expert DFS Lineup and Projections
DraftKings salaries as of race week. Lock in your Wurth 400 NASCAR DFS picks at the best DFS sites and apps before the green flag drops at Texas.
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Wurth 400 DFS Strategy: All Ceiling, No Floor
This is a sneaky stack-the-back kind of race.
Texas isn’t going to give us clean, predictable dominator runs. The relatively low tire wear keeps the field bunched up, which means restarts turn into three- and four-wide chaos in a hurry. Add in a history of cautions and strategy swings, and trying to predict lap leaders becomes a good way to light your entry fee on fire.
So we’re not doing that.
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NASCAR DFS Picks: Stacking the Back at Texas
Instead, this build leans heavily on finishing position and place differential. We’re targeting drivers starting deeper in the field with paths forward, while avoiding front-running chalk that could easily find a bump, a bad restart, or a wall and ruin your day.
Track temps are also expected to be about 10 degrees hotter than practice, which should slick things up and only add to the unpredictability.
In other words: this is not a floor lineup.
This is all ceiling.
And with DraftKings rolling out another $20 entry with $100,000 to first, ceiling is exactly what we’re chasing.
Good luck. I’ll be busy scheduling my second refrigerator delivery in 72 hours like that’s a normal thing people do.
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Phil Bobbitt is a motorsports betting analyst and recurring guest on CBS Sports HQ, The Early Edge, and VSiN’s A Numbers Game. He and his pal Steve developed a racing algorithm that’s profited over 260 units and $1 million in DFS winnings since 2020.
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