2026 NHL Draft Odds: Will the Maple Leafs Pick Gavin McKenna No. 1?

• The Toronto Maple Leafs jumped from the 5th seed to win the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery at 8.5% odds
• Gavin McKenna sits at 91% on Polymarket to be selected first overall in Buffalo
• Read on for my breakdown of the 2026 NHL Draft odds, scouting reports on the top names, and where the value lies

The Maple Leafs hit the jackpot Monday night, climbing from the 5th seed all the way to No. 1 overall with a combination that hit at 8.5% odds. It’s just the third time in franchise history Toronto holds the top pick, joining Wendel Clark (1985) and Auston Matthews (2016).

That sets up the obvious question: who will the Leafs pick? The betting market on Polymarket has already given its answer, and it’s not particularly close. Here’s my breakdown of the 2026 NHL Draft odds, the McKenna vs Stenberg debate, and whether there’s any value beyond the favorite.

2026 NHL Draft First Overall Pick Odds

Polymarket is a crypto-based prediction market where users buy shares of an outcome at prices between 0¢ and 100¢. The price reflects the implied probability. A 91¢ share on McKenna means the market gives him a 91% chance to be the first name called.

If he goes first, that share pays out $1. Different beast than a traditional sportsbook, but the pricing functions the same way as American odds.

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Here’s how the top 10 of the board looks 52 days out from the draft:

2026 NHL Draft odds via Polymarket as of May 5. Total market volume sits at $1.26 million.

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McKenna has hovered around the 91-93% range for weeks, dipping slightly from 93% as Stenberg gained ground from 8.5% to 9.8%.

The longshot end of the board has seen heavy speculative volume. Viggo Björck has $463,566 in volume despite sub-1% odds, and Tynan Lawrence has $454,785 traded at similar pricing. That’s traders cycling positions, not a real signal on the draft outcome.

Who Will the Leafs Pick at No. 1?

The scouting reports point one direction. NHL Central Scouting has McKenna ranked the top North American skater by what they describe as a considerable margin, and the consensus mock boards have him going first off the board to Toronto.

His skill ceiling is the highest in this class. The offensive toolkit, vision and puck-handling are why he’s been the projected top pick for the better part of two years.

Stenberg is the legitimate alternate, and some scouts actually prefer his overall game. He’s bigger (183 lbs to McKenna’s 170), plays a stronger two-way style, and offers a higher floor as a prospect.

The Leafs don’t need another top winger. They need a top-pairing defenseman more than anything, but you don’t pass on generational forwards because of positional fit. Expect McKenna’s name to be the first one called in Buffalo.

2026 NHL Draft Betting Value

The honest answer: there isn’t much value to chase unless you’re betting McKenna himself. At 91¢, you’re risking 91 cents to win 9 cents on a guy who’s been the consensus top prospect since juniors. It’s a market with very little juice left.

Stenberg at 9.8% is the only other name worth a sniff. He posted a big SHL season as a teenager, led Sweden to World Juniors gold, and grades out as a safer NHL projection than McKenna in some scouting circles.

If you believe Toronto values size and two-way play over pure offensive ceiling, or that the Leafs go their own way at the podium, there’s a contrarian argument at +900 implied odds. I wouldn’t die on that hill, but it’s the only number that pays you to be wrong.

The names below Stenberg are a graveyard. Malhotra at 3.2%, Reid at 2.4%, Verhoeff at 2%. None of those are pricing in real draft outcomes. Wrapping up my 2026 NHL Draft analysis, the play is McKenna or pass entirely. Don’t get cute with the longshots.

McKenna vs Stenberg Scouting Reports

McKenna is the higher-ceiling prospect. The 18-year-old winger from Whitehorse, Yukon offers high-end playmaking, dynamic puck skills and the kind of offensive instincts that don’t come around often.

McKenna vs Stenberg Stats

Stenberg’s case is built differently. The Swede checks in at 183 lbs, plays a more complete 200-foot game, and projects as a higher-floor NHL contributor even if his ceiling sits a notch below. A handful of scouts will take floor over ceiling and have him 1A.

Neither solves Toronto’s bigger problem on the blueline, which is why this decision comes down to who the front office trusts to lead the next era. The market says McKenna. The scouting consensus agrees.