2026 Calder Trophy Odds: Is Matthew Schaefer a Lock After Finalists Announced?

• Matthew Schaefer, Ivan Demidov and Beckett Sennecke have been named the 2026 Calder Trophy finalists
• Schaefer is a massive favorite on Kalshi to win Rookie of the Year, but is he a lock?
• Keep reading for my Calder Trophy odds breakdown and whether there’s any value beyond the chalk

The NHL announced the three Calder Trophy finalists this week, and it’s the trio everyone expected. Matthew Schaefer of the Islanders headlines the group alongside Montreal’s Ivan Demidov and Anaheim’s Beckett Sennecke.

The bigger question isn’t who’s nominated. It’s whether Schaefer is as locked in as the betting market thinks he is.

Here’s my Calder Trophy odds breakdown, why Schaefer should already have his name on the trophy, and where the only sliver of value sits.

2026 Calder Trophy Odds

Kalshi is a federally regulated prediction market where contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢. The price functions as the implied probability. A 99¢ Yes share on Schaefer means the market gives him a 97% chance of winning the Calder.

Schaefer has dipped 2 points recently from 99%, but is still priced like a near-certainty. Demidov has firmed up to 6% as the lone secondary play. Everyone else, including names like Easton Cowan, Rutger McGroarty and Zeev Buium, is trading at sub-1% with no realistic path.

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2026 Calder Trophy odds via Kalshi as of May 5. New users can grab a Kalshi promo code to bet on the NHL Awards.

Why Schaefer Wins the Calder

The biggest thing to remember about the Calder Trophy: voting closes at the end of the regular season. The Professional Hockey Writers’ Association cast their ballots before a single playoff puck dropped, which means Montreal’s deep run and Anaheim’s playoff push don’t factor in. Voters had already turned in their cards.

What those voters watched all year was a generational rookie season from an 18-year-old defenseman. Schaefer finished with 23 goals and 36 assists for 59 points in 82 games while averaging 24:41 of ice time per night. Both numbers are records for an 18-year-old defenseman in NHL history.

His 23 goals tied Brian Leetch’s 1989 mark for the most ever by a rookie defenseman in a single season. Leetch won the Calder that year. Schaefer matched the record as a teenager.

Demidov actually led all rookies in points (62) and assists (43), but he averaged just 15:30 of ice time on a deep Canadiens roster. Schaefer played nearly nine more minutes per night, handled top-pair matchups, and ran the Islanders’ power play and penalty kill. The Hockey News called the race over before voting even started.

Calder Trophy Betting Value

There isn’t any. At 99¢ on Kalshi, you’re risking 99 cents to win 1 cent on a result that’s already been decided behind closed doors. The trophy gets handed out at the NHL Awards in June, but the ballots are in.

Demidov at 6% is the only ticket worth a flier, and even that’s a stretch. The math says it would take a meaningful bloc of writers valuing a 62-point regular season over the most decorated rookie defenseman campaign in modern history. Possible. Not probable.

Sennecke at sub-1% is a skip. His 60 points were solid, but a -12 plus-minus and a path that requires both Schaefer and Demidov to get leapfrogged makes it a non-starter. Wrapping up my Calder Trophy odds analysis, this is a chalk play or a pass. Don’t reach for value that isn’t there.