Best Player Props to Bet in Pirates vs D-backs (Skenes vs Soroka)

• 2025 NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes is averaging 10.32 Ks/9 IP
• Arizona’s Michael Soroka is averaging 10.57 Ks/9 IP
• We examine the prop market and deliver the best bets for Pirates at Diamondbacks tonight

The Pittsburgh Pirates (19-17) and Arizona Diamondbacks (17-17) continue their series tonight at Chase Field. First pitch is set for 9:40 pm, ET.

Arizona dominated the Pirates 9-0 on Tuesday, but we’re not concerned with the moneyline, runline or total for game 2 of their series tonight.

We’re focusing entirely on the player prop market, with extra attention paid to the starting pitchers: 2025 NL Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes (4-2, 3.18 ERA) and Michael Soroka (4-1, 4.70).

We break down the prop market, providing you with odds analysis, predictive insights, and the most profitable player prop targets to back tonight.

Pirates vs Diamondbacks Player Props

Odds are subject to change. Best available odds displayed for each market.

Cruz currently leads the power market with +350 odds (Caesars) to hit a home run, directly correlating to his stellar .486 slugging percentage across 144 at-bats this season. DraftKings is heavily laying the vig on Ryan O’Hearn to record at least one base hit (-204), which aligns with his impressive .301 batting average. Nick Gonzales is the only player listed with a total hits threshold of 1.5, though the under is heavily juiced at -265 on DraftKings, indicating an implied probability of 72.6% that he finishes with one hit or fewer.

Paul Skenes vs Michael Soroka Pitching Props

Best available odds displayed for each market.

Pirates vs Diamondbacks Best Player Prop Bets & Picks

By combining pitching analytics and expected batter success, we have identified three top player props for this matchup.

Pick #1: Michael Soroka Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+102 via FanDuel)

The Justification: Soroka currently boasts a stellar 10.57 K/9 ratio. While high strikeout rates are excellent, a starting pitcher needs raw volume to cash an over ticket on a 5.5 line. Soroka averages 5.11 innings pitched per start. If we run the math on his 10.57 K/9 over an average 5.11-inning workload, his baseline expected output sits right around 6.0 strikeouts per outing. Because FanDuel is hanging his strikeout total at 5.5 with an attractive +102 price on the over, this presents a quantifiable mathematical edge. At plus-money, the implied probability is roughly 49.5%, but his strikeout metrics dictate this should be priced closer to -125.

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Pick #2: Ryan O’Hearn Over 1.5 Total Bases (+133 via DraftKings)

The Justification: At +133 odds, backing O’Hearn to eclipse 1.5 total bases is a highly attractive value play. He has been a vital offensive engine for Pittsburgh this season, hitting a robust .301 over 123 at-bats. Beyond just making contact and legging out infield singles, he is actively doing damage when he squares up the baseball. O’Hearn holds a .463 Slugging Percentage (SLG), a .162 Isolated Power (ISO), and 10 extra-base hits on the year. Given his .301 batting average, he is a consistent threat to clear this prop on a single swing of the bat via a double in the gap or a home run, or by simply slapping a pair of base hits through the infield. Getting +133 on a hitter consistently producing extra-base contact offers excellent EV (Expected Value).

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Pick #3: Paul Skenes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+116 via DraftKings)

The Justification: Skenes enters this contest with a flashy 10.32 K/9 over 34.0 innings of work. The public loves betting on high-velocity strikeout pitchers, which routinely inflates their prop lines. Skenes has only exceeded this 6.5 strikeout total twice — but they’ve been in his past 2 starts. He is well-rested and rounding into form.

Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Same Game Parlay (SGP) Suggestion

If you are looking to combine these statistical edges into a single correlated ticket, consider blending the pitching volume logic with Pittsburgh’s hottest bat.

Be sure to shop around your preferred sportsbooks to find the best combined odds for this custom SGP.

Pirates vs Diamondbacks Odds

Odds as of May 6 at 11:27 AM from DraftKings.