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Avalanche vs Wild Prediction, Player Props & Odds for Game 4

Michael Harrison

By Michael Harrison in NHL Hockey

Published:


Nov 12, 2023; Saint Paul, Minnesota, USA; Dallas Stars defenseman Nils Lundkvist (5) pokes checks Minnesota Wild left wing Kirill Kaprizov (97) in the second period at Xcel Energy Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Avalanche and Wild battle in a crucial Game 4 Monday night with Minnesota down 2-1 in the series
  • See where the public betting splits are leaning and player props for this Central Division rivalry showdown
  • My official prediction for the contest plus an NHL player prop I’m intrigued by for Game 4

The Minnesota Wild held serve with a Game 3 victory on home ice, and they’re fighting to do it again to knot their series up with the Avalanche 2-2. Puck drop is set for 7:00 PM CT / 8:00 PM ET at Grand Casino Arena in St. Paul, Minnesota with ESPN providing the coverage in the USA and Sportsnet in Canada. The NHL odds have installed the Avs as road favorites to take a 3-1 series strangehold.

Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and a high-flying Avalanche squad are looking to push their Central Division rivals to the brink of elimination. Defending their home rink, the Wild will lean heavily on the dynamic playmaking of Kirill Kaprizov to even the series. The Stanley Cup odds show Colorado as the +185 favorites from the West, with Minny at +1600.

Avalanche vs Wild Picks and Predictions

Best Game Bet: Under 6.5 Goals (-118 at DraftKings)

While this series has seen its share of offensive outbursts, Game 4 sets up perfectly for a defensive grind. The consensus game total sits at 6.5, and the situational trends heavily point toward the under cashing at Grand Casino Arena.

When attacking this total, the historical splits for both teams in these exact roles give us a massive statistical edge:

* The over has hit in 0 of the Wild’s last five games at home as an underdog.
* The over has hit in just four of the Avalanche’s last 18 games on the road.
* The over has hit in just one of the Avalanche’s last ten games on the road against top-10 scoring defenses.

The last three times these two squads battled in Minny, the under 6.5 goal total hit as well.

Top Player Prop Bet

Kirill Kaprizov Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+100 at Caesars)

Trailing in the series, Minnesota will desperately need their superstar winger to drive the offense. Kirill Kaprizov has tallied nine shots on goal through the first three games, but his overall shooting volume indicates he is primed for a heavy workload tonight. At even money (+100), this is a prime spot to back his aggressive play style as he searches for a clutch snipe.

* The Trend: Kaprizov has exceeded 3.5 shots on goal in four of his last six games. Facing a potential 3-1 series deficit, expect him to throw pucks on net from everywhere in the offensive zone.

Avalanche vs Wild Public Betting Splits & Handle

  • Moneyline: In the NHL public betting trends, the public is heavily backing the road favorites, with Colorado commanding 74% of the moneyline handle.
  • Puck Line: Bettors are confident in a multi-goal victory for the Avalanche, as they have drawn 63% of the puck line money ATS (against the spread).
  • Total: The Under is seeing massive, lopsided action, pulling in an overwhelming 93% of the total handle, which aligns with my selection.

Avalanche vs Wild Game Odds & Betting Lines

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Avalanche vs Wild Playoff Team Stats Comparison

Statistic (Per Game Average)Colorado AvalancheMinnesota Wild
Goals For4.004.00
Goals Against2.433.00
Shots For32.1430.56
Shots Against27.5731.67
Power Play %23.8%18.2%
Penalty Kill %79.2%60.0%
Save Percentage.907.896
Faceoff Win %51.5%49.6%
Hits26.8634.78
Blocked Shots15.5716.22

Avalanche vs Wild Projected Lineups & Defensive Pairings

The Avalanche may be switching goaltenders for this one, as Mackenzie Blackwood came in to relieve Scott Wedgewood after the latter was pulled following three goals against in Game 3.

Projected Forward Lines

DepthColorado Avalanche LineMinnesota Wild Line
1st LineArtturi Lehkonen – Nathan MacKinnon – Martin NecasKirill Kaprizov – Ryan Hartman – Mats Zuccarello
2nd LineRoss Colton – Brock Nelson – Valeri NichushkinMarcus Johansson – Danila Yurov – Matt Boldy
3rd LineGabriel Landeskog – Nazem Kadri – Nicolas RoyYakov Trenin – Michael McCarron – Vladimir Tarasenko
4th LineParker Kelly – Jack Drury – Logan O’ConnorMarcus Foligno – Nico Sturm – Nick Foligno

Projected Defensive Pairings & Goaltenders

DepthColorado AvalancheMinnesota Wild
1st PairingDevon Toews – Cale MakarQuinn Hughes – Brock Faber
2nd PairingBrett Kulak – Sam MalinskiJake Middleton – Zach Bogosian
3rd PairingNick Blankenburg – Brent BurnsDaemon Hunt – Jared Spurgeon
Starting GoalieScott WedgewoodJesper Wallstedt
Backup GoalieMackenzie BlackwoodFilip Gustavsson

Avalanche vs Wild Injury Report & Updates

Minnesota Wild Injuries

* Joel Eriksson Ek (Center): Listed as Day-to-Day with a lower-body injury. The star two-way pivot hasn’t suited up this series.
* Jonas Brodin (Defenseman): Officially listed as Out with a lower-body injury. He missed Game 3, forcing Minnesota to dig deep into their defensive depth to weather Colorado’s forecheck.

Colorado Avalanche Injuries

* Josh Manson (Defenseman): Currently Day-to-Day with an upper-body injury. He’s missed the first three games of this series and his physical presence will be missed if he sits again tonight.
* Joel Kiviranta (Left Wing): Considered Day-to-Day with an undisclosed injury. He is a possibility to return to the lineup for Game 4, which would provide a welcome boost to their bottom six.

Colorado Avalanche vs Minnesota Wild Game Information

  • Away Team: Colorado Avalanche (COL)
  • Home Team: Minnesota Wild (MIN)
  • TV: ESPN (United States), Sportsnet (Canada)
  • Date: May 11
  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Grand Casino Arena – St. Paul, Minnesota
Michael Harrison
Michael Harrison

Sports & Entertainment Writer

Michael "Hound Dog" Harrison is well known in the sports industry as the resident statistician for the SC with Jay Onrait Show. He has worked at TSN for over 20 years, is the CEO of his "All Bets Par Off" weekly golf betting videos and his HDOG POD, along with several others.

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