Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano Odds: Opening Lines & Betting Preview for Netflix Fight

• Ronda Rousey returns to MMA on Saturday, May 16th to face Gina Carano on Netflix from the Intuit Dome in Los Angeles
• Rousey opened as a -600 favorite at BetMGM with Carano sitting at +425
• Check out the opening Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano odds and my early betting preview below

The fight that should have happened twelve years ago is finally happening this Saturday. Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano headlines MVP MMA 1 on Netflix from the Intuit Dome in Los Angeles, and it’s the streamer’s first-ever live MMA broadcast.

Rousey hasn’t fought since being knocked out by Amanda Nunes in 48 seconds back in December 2016. Carano’s layoff is even longer. Her last pro bout came against Cris Cyborg in August 2009, more than 16 years ago. The betting market still has Rousey as a heavy favorite to get her hand raised.

Here are the opening Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano odds and my early thoughts on where the value sits.

Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano Odds

Rousey is a -600 favorite at BetMGM, which translates to an implied probability of around 85.7%. Carano sits at +425, or roughly 19% implied probability.

The exact round market has Round 1 priced as the favorite at -140, with the fight going the distance a long shot at +750. Rousey has never gone the distance in MMA, and Carano’s last two fights also ended in the first round.

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Odds as of May 12th at BetMGM. Grab a BetMGM promo code for Saturday’s fight or browse UFC betting apps.

Rousey vs. Carano Early Prediction

Laying -600 on a 39-year-old coming off a nine-year layoff isn’t my idea of a smart bet. Even if Rousey is the right side, you’re risking $600 to win $100. That’s a brutal price on a fighter whose last two MMA appearances ended in knockout losses.

The stylistic matchup does lean heavily in Rousey’s favor. She’s a former Olympic judo medalist with 9 of her 12 career wins by submission. Almost all of those came by armbar. Carano is a striker by trade, building her name in Muay Thai and boxing during her Strikeforce run. If Rousey gets a clinch and lands a judo throw, the fight is likely over quickly.

Tale of the Tape

Carano has the height advantage at 5’8″ to Rousey’s 5’6″, and she’s the bigger fighter overall at 145 pounds. UFC welterweight veteran Matt Brown actually picked Carano for the upset and pointed to the size, the predictability of Rousey’s judo, and the fact that her striking “never got better” during her UFC run. Matt Serra disagreed, predicting a first-round armbar.

I lean toward Rousey, but not at -600. The play here is method of victory. Rousey by submission has been her bread and butter throughout her entire career, and Carano has only ever been submitted once. At -250, that’s where the value sits.

• Rousey vs. Carano Early Pick: Ronda Rousey by Submission (-250 at BetMGM)

Rousey vs. Carano Betting Value

If you don’t want to mess with method of victory props, Rousey in Round 1 at -130 is the next best bet. Six of Rousey’s 12 wins came in the first round, and five of those were by armbar. Carano’s only loss was a first round TKO to Cyborg, and her wins typically came inside the distance as well. Neither fighter has the cardio profile of someone built for a five-round war after this much time off.

The fight ending by submission overall at -325 is also worth a look. Rousey is the obvious choice to lock in the sub, but the price shows how lopsided the grappling matchup is. Carano spent her career as a striker and hasn’t trained submission defense in 16 years.

An early underdog swing on Carano at +425 is a tempting flier on the rust factor and the size advantage. Sixteen years of rust on Carano is hard to project, but so is nine years of rust on Rousey, plus two straight knockout losses to close her career. If you want to dream on the upset, Carano by KO/TKO at +450 is the only Carano bet that makes sense given the styles.

I’ll have more on the rest of the MVP MMA 1 card later this week, including Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins and Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry. My early lean on the main event for now is Rousey by submission at -250.