Nationals vs Reds Picks & Props to Target (May 13)

• The Nationals are +140 underdogs tonight versus the Reds
• Cincy starter Nick Lodolo brings a bloated 6.75 ERA into action
• See the best Nationals vs Reds picks and props to target for May 13, below

The Washington Nationals (20-22) and Cincinnati Reds (22-20) continue their series at Great American Ball Park tonight, with first pitch scheduled for 6:40 pm ET, and Bally Sports providing broadcast coverage. The Nationals enter this matchup carrying momentum from a decisive 10-4 victory over the Reds in their previous meeting, where the offense produced 13 hits and six home runs.

Despite the offensive explosion, it’s the Reds who are listed as favorites in the MLB odds. They’re looking to bounce back after struggling offensively, and will rely on elite shortstop Elly De La Cruz to set the tone.

Keep reading for the best Nationals vs Reds picks and props to target on May 13th, for this NL Central showdown.

Nationals vs Reds Picks

• Nationals Moneyline (+140 at Caesars)
• Over 9 Runs (-120 at Bet365)

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I’m betting the Nats moneyline and the over tonight. Digging into the MLB starting lineups, the Nationals have scored 227 total runs with a .736 team OPS this season. Conversely, the Reds have struggled to consistently generate offense, plating just 168 runs while posting a .684 team OPS. Backing the road underdog is my strongest value play given the clear offensive disparity.

As for the pitching matchup, both starting pitchers have had a rocky start to the 2026 campaign. Nationals starter Jake Irvin enters with a 5.22 ERA, while Reds left-hander Nick Lodolo sports an inflated 6.75 ERA. Neither bullpen has been reliable either, with the Reds carrying a 4.70 ERA and the Nationals sitting at 4.79. With two vulnerable pitching staffs taking the mound, I expect elevated run production.

Irvin vs Lodolo Matchup

Irvin generates plenty of swing-and-miss. His 4.28 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) suggests he has been the victim of poor luck and subpar defense. If he maintains his strikeout prowess and limits free passes, his actual production should positively regress.

The Reds are rolling the dice with Lodolo. His high 8.37 FIP and low 3.38 K/9 show a concerning lack of dominance, positioning the Nationals hitters to string base hits together against him.

Nationals vs Reds Team Stats

The most glaring disparity is the Nationals’ offensive efficiency away from home compared to the Reds’ struggles to manufacture runs. The road squad plates a stellar 5.52 runs per game, driven by a robust .251 batting average. Conversely, the home team finds it difficult to manufacture consistent offense, averaging just 4.09 runs per game.

Digging into the numbers even further, the Reds boast an impressive 90.1 mph average exit velocity at home. This consistent hard contact translates directly into 1.41 home runs per game, however that suggests they are too reliant on the long ball, and regression is going to smack them in the face.

Nationals vs Reds Odds

Odds as of May 13. Claim the BetMGM promo code to bet on the Nationals vs Reds tonight.

Nationals vs Reds Props to Target

• Jake Irvin Over 4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts (-122 at BetMGM)

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Switching gears to the MLB props market, where Irvin Over 4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts is my favorite wager. Despite his struggles with earned runs, Irvin maintains an impressive 9.30 K/9 rate. Reaching five strikeouts against a lineup that has accumulated 388 total strikeouts is well within reach.

Per the MLB batter vs pitcher stats, Irving has had plenty of success whiffing Cincy batters in the past, posting a 25% strikeout rate over 64 at-bats.