Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry Odds & Prediction: Betting the Co-Main Event on Netflix

• UFC alumni Nate Diaz and Mike Perry square off in the five-round co-main event of Rousey vs. Carano
• The matchup marks Diaz’s first MMA fight since September 2022, and Perry’s first since April 2021
• Get the latest betting odds and our prediction for this MMA matchup featuring two of the sport’s biggest stars

It’s not every day you get a former UFC BMF title contender and bare knuckle boxing “King of Violence” in the cage together, but Nate Diaz and Mike Perry are giving fans what they want on Saturday’s inaugural MVP MMA show.

Slotting into the co-main event of Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano live on Netflix, both Diaz and Perry will look to shake off a bit of MMA rust in a five-round matchup that is sure to bring pure violence to the table. Both fighters are all-action vets with plenty of exciting bouts on their resumes and fans, myself included, are thrilled at the prospect of seeing them face each other.

Let’s take a closer look at the Diaz vs. Perry odds along with how I think this fight is going to go down and who will come out on top.

Diaz vs. Perry Odds

Odds as of May 15, 2026 at BetMGM. Grab a BetMGM promo code for Saturday’s MVP MMA 1 event or browse UFC betting apps for more options.

Oddsmakers are likely looking at age and recent activity as major factors in making the 34-year-old Perry a -200 favorite for Saturday’s fight with an implied probability of 66.7%. Diaz, on the other hand, is 41 and a +165 underdog with an implied probability of 37.7%.

Things get a little more interesting when you look at method of victory odds with a classic Diaz submission coming in at +425 and a potential Perry KO or TKO at the +175 mark.

Diaz vs. Perry Prediction

While I can see where oddsmakers are coming from in making Perry a decent favorite, I really think this fight actually favors Diaz in a couple different ways.

First of all, we need to consider the sport: MMA. This is not a bare knuckle or standard boxing fight that I think would favor the hard-hitting Perry. Diaz is far more accomplished in the MMA realm than Perry and his last UFC appearance against Tony Ferguson in September 2022 was a submission victory.

The other important factor here is that this is a five-round fight. Diaz thrives late in fights where Perry has typically slowed down a bit. I think that will also be something to watch during this matchup in that Perry will come out of the gate strong and could even hurt Diaz, but the extra two rounds will give the Stockton native the time he needs to work and set up a submission.

It’s not going to be easy (or pretty), but I still think Diaz has enough juice left to use his underrated MMA IQ to get Perry into deep waters and eventually drown him.

Prediction: Diaz by Submission (+425) via BetMGM

Additional Diaz vs. Perry Betting Analysis

Another bet I think could be solid is +165 for a moneyline win in Diaz’s favor. Perry has only been submitted once in his MMA career, back in November 2018 against Donald Cerrone, but he’s definitely grown a lot since then. It’s very possible that Diaz looks to set up submissions that won’t land in time and he simply wins on the scorecards instead.

If you like Perry to win, +175 for a KO, TKO, or DQ is also decent value. Diaz is the rustier of the two with less recent activity and the bare knuckle experience might give Perry the ability to get out to a quick start that catches his opponent a little off guard. Starting fast will be the important piece of success tied to making this bet. If you believe Perry is going straight ahead to swing from the opening bell, there could be something here.