Best Bets, Picks & Props to Target in Blue Jays vs Tigers

• Detroit won a walk-off last night
• Both teams are scuffling out of the gate
• Continue reading for my Blue Jays vs Tigers best bets

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The Detroit Tigers (20-25) host the Toronto Blue Jays (19-25) for an afternoon clash at Comerica Park on May 16, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 PM EST. The Tigers enter this matchup looking to build momentum after a Spencer Torkelson walk-off to secure a 3-2 victory over Toronto in the previous game of this series.

Despite the rough start for both squads, both the Blue Jays and Tigers are still in the top eight in 2026 AL Playoff odds. The Tigers are narrow favorites to win the AL Central while the Blue Jays are a clear third banana in the AL East behind New York and Tampa Bay.

As the Blue Jays step to the plate as road underdogs, keep reading for my Blue Jays vs Tigers best picks, picks, and props to target.

Blue Jays vs Tigers Picks & Predictions

• Tigers Moneyline (-120, Fanatics)

I am again backing the Tigers to win this “rivalry” matchup with the pitching advantage in hand. Casey Mize has backed up his All-Star campaignn with a dynamic 2.90 ERA (2.85 FIP) with a standout strikeout rate. Mason Fluharty has been a bit unlucky this season, but Mize has been a cut above this year.

When breaking down this matchup, the starting pitching disparity points directly to Detroit defending its home turf. The Blue Jays have been dreadful when receiving plus money this season. They hold a 4-12 straight-up record (25.0%) as underdogs and are 0-4 in that spot over their last four games.

• Casey Mize Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+130, BetMGM)

Mize registers 10.16 strikeouts per nine innings and faces a lineup lacking road power. The former No. 1 overall pick has cleared this mark in four of six starts this season.

• Riley Greene Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120, BetMGM)

Greene is enjoying his best season this far. He leads the AL with 14 doubles, and he has a robust .329/.422/.491 slash line. Greene has cashed this line in 24 of 45 games, including last night.

Mason Fluharty vs Casey Mize

Detroit holds a clear advantage in rotational stability. Mize enters this matchup pitching exceptionally well despite a tough-luck 2-4 record. Over his 31.0 innings, the right-hander has suppressed opposing lineups with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. He limits quality contact effectively, yielding a .228 opponent batting average and 63rd-percentile average exit velocity. Mize is in the 81st percentile in strikeout rate.

Conversely, Toronto appears to be utilizing Mason Fluharty as an opener ahead of a bullpen day. Fluharty holds a 0-1 record and has been volatile over his last 6.1 innings, carrying a 4.26 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. While the left-hander boasts strong strikeout metrics (11.4 K/9), his command wavers with a 4.2 BB/9 rate. If Fluharty struggles to find the strike zone early, the bullpen will face heavy innings. His expected ERA (1.82) is over three runs lower than his actual ERA.

Team Stats Comparison

The most glaring mismatch in this contest lies in offensive production. Detroit thrives at Comerica Park, fielding a top-10 offense generating 4.63 runs per game. Their batters average an 89.7 mph exit velocity at home. This consistent hard contact fuels a .737 OPS and provides reliable run support.

Toronto struggles mightily to manufacture runs away from Rogers Centre. Averaging just 3.65 runs per game on the road, their lineup lacks both power and speed. They rank last in the majors in road stolen bases (0.25) and sit in the bottom third in road home runs (0.80). Their inability to hit for extra bases drags their road OPS down to .660.

Blue Jays vs Tigers Odds

The Tigers are home favorites. Detroit bettors should take the Tigers at -125 on the moneyline or -1.5 on the runline (+162 odds). Toronto bettors should take the Blue Jays at +105 on the moneyline or +1.5 on the runline at -195 odds.

The total is placed at 8.5 runs. Over bettors should opt for the over 8.5 line at -105 odds. Under bettors should take the under 8.5 line for -115 odds.

Odds as of May 16, 2026, at 10:30 AM EST from Caesars Sportsbook.

Blue Jays vs Tigers Betting Splits

Looking at the MLB public betting splits, casual bettors slightly favor the road underdogs. Toronto draws 51.2% of moneyline wagers. However, I always prioritize the handle, which tells a different story. Detroit commands 53.0% of the overall moneyline stake. While this does not meet the 60% threshold for a true sharp vs public split, the money flowing toward the home side aligns perfectly with my prediction.

The totals market paints a similarly nuanced picture. Tickets are perfectly split at 50.0% for both the Over and Under. Yet, 53.9% of the handle backs the Over. This steady flow of cash on the Over correlates directly with the recent sportsbook line movement, which saw the juice on the Over 8 total shift to -120 to mitigate liability against the larger volume of money.

Blue Jays vs Tigers Injury Report

Injuries have severely altered the landscape of this afternoon matchup. Toronto is missing Max Scherzer, Shane Bieber, and José Berríos from its rotation. This deficit forces the team into heavily taxed bullpen games like today. Operating without Anthony Santander and Alejandro Kirk robs them of much-needed power and on-base ability.

The home dugout is also managing crucial absences. Mize returns from a 15-day IL stint for a groin strain, meaning manager A.J. Hinch will likely monitor his pitch count. If Mize cannot pitch deep, the bullpen could be vulnerable after Ty Madden left yesterday’s contest early.

Offensively, Detroit is without Kerry Carpenter, Gleyber Torres, and Javier Báez. These absences force Greene to shoulder the run-producing load, making him an excellent focal point for player props as he anchors a depleted but still capable lineup.