Final Ngannou vs Lins Prediction for Rousey-Carano Undercard

• Former UFC champion Francis Ngannou battles Philipe Lins at MVP MMA 1
• Ngannou has won seven straight MMA fights
• Check out all the Ngannou vs Lins odds and our betting predictions

Former UFC heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou returns to the cage at MVP MMA 1 against Philipe Lins. As part of the Rousey-Carano undercard, Ngannou vs Lins is sure to provide fireworks from the Intuit Dome with the event broadcast worldwide on Netflix.

Dive into all the latest Ngannou vs Lins odds and my best bets for tonight’s heavyweight tilt.

Ngannou vs Lins Odds

Odds as of May 16th at BetMGM. Find a BetMGM promo code for Saturday’s fight or browse UFC betting apps.

Francis Ngannou is listed a a massive -2500 favorite at BetMGM for Saturday’s bout, which means sportsbooks are implying a 96.15% chance of victory. Lins comes back as a +1050 underdog, which translates to about an 8.7% implied probability of winning.

Ngannou to win in 60 seconds or less is priced at +425, which is an interesting market as he owns nine first-round stoppages.

Ngannou vs Lins Prediction

Odds as of May 16, 2026 at BetMGM. Check out all the best MMA betting apps & promos for Rousey vs. Carano on Netflix.

Ngannou returns to the cage for just the second time in three years after his sojourn into the world of boxing. “The Predator” fared well in those bouts, displaying adept striking ability in competitive matchups with superstars Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua. Ngannou also kept his foot on the pedal with a violent finish of Renan Ferreira at PFL Super Fights in October of 2024, but he hasn’t entered the ring, or cage since.

On the other side of the cage, Philipe Lins is such a huge underdog that most bettors will likely discount his skills. Despite being on a four-fight win streak, Lins is being priced as a bottom-feeder in this bout. All four of those fights came in the UFC, including a spectacular first-round knockout of former contender Ovince St.Preux. Granted, those fights came at 205-pounds, but Lins has 18 wins in 23 professional bouts and trains at American Top Team. He’s no slouch.

Lins is also no stranger to facing off against heavy hitters in the cage, having been pitted against the likes of Andrei Arlovski, Jared Rosholt and the aforementioned OSP and living to tell the tale. He hasn’t been finished since June of 2020 and has the length to keep Ngannou off him in early stages.

It’s important to note that neither of these men have competed in over two years. Both Ngannou and Lins are very likely to show signs of ring rust, and fail to be nearly as accurate as most bettors expect. There is likely to be a feeling-out process for both men, especially early on in this bout, which leads to our OVER 1.5 rounds play. The timing will also be off for both men, and Lins can use his length, strength and veteran savvy to at least survive for the seven and a half minutes we need to cash this bet. Make no mistake, we’re betting that Ngannou vs Lins will still be a violent war, but the real fireworks won’t show up until at least round two.

• Best Ngannou vs Lins Bet: OVER 1.5 Total Rounds (+200 at BetMGM)