Rousey vs. Carano Betting Odds: Is Carano a Value Play as a +375 Underdog?

• Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano headlines MVP MMA 1 tonight on Netflix from the Intuit Dome in Los Angeles
• Carano sits as a wide underdog at Bet365, but the line has crept her way since the March open
• See the full Rousey vs. Carano betting odds and whether Carano is a value play below

We’re hours away from the strangest main event of the year. Ronda Rousey and Gina Carano finally fight tonight on Netflix from the Intuit Dome in Los Angeles, more than a decade after the matchup first fell apart.

Rousey is a massive favorite, but the price has slid since this fight opened in March. That movement is worth digging into, and it leaves a fair question on the table: is Carano actually a value play at this number?

Let’s get into the full Rousey vs. Carano betting odds and answer the question.

Rousey vs. Carano Betting Odds

Rousey sits at -600 at Bet365, an implied probability of about 85.7%. Carano comes back at +375, or roughly 21%. The market also has Rousey by submission at -240 and the fight to clear 1.5 rounds at +170, with the under juiced to -220.

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Rousey vs. Carano Line Movement

This fight opened around -700 on Rousey with Carano as high as +525 back in March. Tonight she’s down to +375 at Bet365. The dog has been bet up, not down, which usually signals money on the underdog.

Some of that is the nature of a Netflix crossover event. Casual money tends to flood in on the underdog name in a spectacle fight, hunting a lottery ticket, which trims the price. But this doesn’t look purely casual. Sharp bettors don’t chip away at a +500 dog for no reason, and Carano’s camp gave them a few.

Is Carano a Value Play?

The honest answer is probably not, but the case is more interesting than the price suggests. Ring rust runs both ways. Everyone points at Carano’s 16-year layoff, and rightly so, but Rousey hasn’t fought MMA since December 2016 either. Both women are scraping off serious cobwebs.

Carano’s prep has been serious. She trained at Syndicate MMA, worked Muay Thai with Kevin Ross, drilled BJJ with Chris Brennan, and sparred with former bantamweight champ Merab Dvalishvili, who said publicly he thinks she wins. She’s also the bigger fighter at 5’8″ with real knockout power, and Rousey’s chin has always been the soft spot.

Tale of the Tape

The value argument ends right about here. Sixteen years is sixteen years. A 44-year-old returning from the longest layoff in the sport’s history, against the most accomplished submission fighter in women’s MMA, is a tough sell at any price.

Rousey’s armbar doesn’t fade the way speed and chin durability do. Former champ Matt Serra expects a first-round arm lock, and most analysts land in the same place. If Carano gets taken down once and makes one mistake, this is over quickly.

Rousey vs. Carano Best Bet

My read hasn’t changed since I called Rousey in Round 1 earlier this week. She will win this, and the smartest way to back her is through the method of victory rather than laying -600 on the moneyline. Rousey by submission at -240 is the best bet. Nine of her 12 career wins came that way, and Carano has been submitted before.

• Rousey vs. Carano Best Bet: Ronda Rousey by Submission (-240 at Bet365)

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The straight Carano moneyline at +375 is a pass. The implied 21% feels about right for a 44-year-old who last competed during Obama’s first term. If you want Carano exposure, her KO/TKO prop at +650 is the only sane way to play it, since it targets her one realistic path instead of just fading the favorite.

There’s one contrarian play here. This is an exhibition-flavored Netflix main event, and there’s a chance Rousey toys with Carano for the cameras before going hunting. Over 1.5 rounds at +170 is a cheap dart on that scenario, and it doubles as cover if my Round 1 read is early. The submission is still the bet. This is the hedge.

That’s the final word on the Rousey vs. Carano betting odds. Our writers have broken down the rest of the card, so check out our latest MMA news.