NASCAR DFS Picks – NASCAR All-Star Race Projections, Lineup & Strategy

• DraftKings is offering $50,000 to first place on a $15 entry for the NASCAR All-Star Race at Dover Motor Speedway
• SpeedwaySteve2 HQ went 5-for-6 on optimal plays at Watkins Glen last week and nearly shipped a solo $100K takedown
• Below, see our NASCAR DFS picks, projections, lineup, and strategy for the All-Star Race

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Last week’s DFS article for the NASCAR Cup Series race at Watkins Glen absolutely smashed. Five of the six drivers in our core build landed in the optimal lineup. If you played it, congratulations on successfully extracting money from the fine folks at DraftKings headquarters.

That’s the good news.

Here’s the bad news.

Every week, Steve sends me a screenshot from the optimizer. Usually it’s 10 to 15 lineups. Buried in last week’s screenshot was the actual $100,000 winning lineup. Solo ship. No dupes. The kind of lineup that changes your mood, posture, and relationship with grilled chicken prices at the grocery store.

We did not play that one.

Now, to be clear, we still walked away with a sizable mound of cash from the DFS ecosystem. Nobody is filing for bankruptcy at SpeedwaySteve2 HQ. But we left money on the table, and that’s been eating at us all week like a loose wheel penalty during green-flag stops.

That changes Sunday.

This week, DraftKings is dangling a $15 contest with $50,000 up top for the NASCAR Cup Series All-Star Race at Dover Motor Speedway, and frankly, that sounds like our money.

Read on, and maybe we’ll split it with you.

NASCAR All-Star Race Expert DFS Lineup and Projections

DraftKings salaries as of race week. Build your NASCAR All-Star Race DFS lineup at the best DFS apps and promos before the green flag drops at Dover.

Now, before we dive deeper into the DFS strategy, we need to acknowledge something important: Dover is a home game for SpeedwaySteve2 HQ.

We had boots on the ground Saturday. We celebrated a Corey Day +1200 outright winner with the Discord faithful. If you look closely at the frontstretch celebration footage, I’m the guy just past the start-finish line behaving in a manner that would concern several mental health professionals while SpeedwayBrandi tries to decide whether she’s happy because winning bets buy her presents, or horrifically embarrassed by the man she married.

We’re still trying to find that middle ground. Razor’s edge, am I right?

So yes, we attended a NASCAR race today. But the world doesn’t stop spinning just because we spent the afternoon inhaling rubber particles and celebrating a four-figure score. The laptops are open. The models are updated. Practice times, starting positions, salaries, long-run speed…all fed into the machine.

SpeedwaySteve2 HQ does not close for the evening. It merely changes lighting conditions and becomes slightly more unhinged.

All-Star Race Format Breakdown

Now, before building lineups, we probably need to discuss the format a little because this race is…weird. Even by All-Star Race standards.

NASCAR essentially created a motorsports version of a game show fever dream.

Sunday’s exhibition race at Dover Motor Speedway will feature 350 laps split into three segments:

• Segment 1: 75 laps
• Segment 2: 75 laps
• Segment 3: 200 laps

And here’s where things get delightfully stupid.

Segment 2’s lineup will invert the top 26 finishers from Segment 1, because apparently somebody in the competition meeting asked, “What if we simply introduced chaos directly into the bloodstream?”

Then, the final 200-lap segment trims the field to 26 drivers based on average finish across the first two segments.

Nineteen drivers already have guaranteed spots in the finale thanks to wins, championships, or previous All-Star victories, leaving everyone else 150 laps to either race their way into the show or become a caution flag while Clint Bowyer says the word “aggression” seventeen times on television.

So yes, this DFS slate is complicated.

Which means Steve has once again sent me a screenshot with multiple optimizer choices.

This time, we’re picking the right one.

Lots of chalk. Lots of bargains too. Exactly how we drew it up.

NASCAR DFS Picks: The Toyota Stack

.@dennyhamlin wins the POLE for tomorrow’s #AllStarRace!!!#TeamToyota | @progressive pic.twitter.com/GPTS4x1Tuk

— Joe Gibbs Racing (@JoeGibbsRacing) May 16, 2026

Denny Hamlin starts from the pole and brings obvious dominator potential in the opening segment. Clean air is king at Dover Motor Speedway, especially with hotter temperatures expected Sunday. The slicker the surface gets, the more we tend to trust the Toyotas, and we’ve given the manufacturer group a slight bump in the model because of it.

Hamlin didn’t practice particularly well, but passing at Dover borders on impossible until tire wear finally kicks the door open. We trust Hamlin to manage both the clean air advantage and the very small tire falloff better than almost anyone in the field. He’s also ranked No. 1 with a bullet in our gambling sheet, which generally gets our attention.

Bubba Wallace starts seventh, and we’ve got him projected between 9.2 and 11.6 finishing position-wise. That may not sound sexy, but this is a pricing play. He should generate enough fastest laps and maintain enough track position to comfortably outperform the salary tag. He’s also already locked into the final field, which matters a ton in this bizarre format.

Then there’s Riley Herbst, who could end up being the cheap missile that makes this entire lineup work.

Yes, we understand the risks involved with typing that sentence publicly.

Still, 23XI Racing has shown legitimate speed this season, the Toyotas are hauling right now, and Herbst honestly hasn’t been completely awful lately. He’ll still need to qualify into the main event, but starting 21st actually sets him up fairly well for the field inversion scenario if moving forward in Segment 1 becomes unrealistic.

Sometimes DFS greatness requires discomfort.

All-Star Race DFS Strategy: The Hendrick Duo

Sunday's All-Star Race lineup. pic.twitter.com/JqMX7coHJe

— Hendrick Motorsports (@TeamHendrick) May 16, 2026

Kyle Larson is obvious chalk. We’re aware of that. So is everyone else. Sometimes eating the chalk is simply the correct decision, especially when the chalk drives for Hendrick Motorsports at Dover.

Larson practiced well, qualified terribly, and checks in second overall in our gambling model. Hendrick routinely turns Dover into its personal playground, and Larson starting 29th creates massive place-differential upside in a race where half the field may spend the afternoon trapped in dirty air purgatory.

He’s also already locked into the final segment, meaning the absolute floor is basically 26th. That’s obviously not winning anybody a DFS tournament, but it does help rationalize the risk profile when you’re clicking a five-figure salary next to a driver buried in the starting grid.

And honestly? The exact same logic applies to Chase Elliott.

Well…mostly.

Elliott didn’t practice nearly as well, and he’s not second in our model. So no, it’s not exactly the same. But we are still talking about Chase Elliott at Dover starting 31st in elite equipment.

We’ve got Elliott projected between 7.4 and 14.4 in finishing position. Is that range absurdly wide? Absolutely. Welcome to the NASCAR All-Star Race, where the format was seemingly designed by somebody spinning a carnival wheel.

The forward mobility is undeniable, and that’s what matters most here.

The Uncomfortable Value Plays

Then we arrive at AJ Allmendinger.

Yuck.

But he’s cheap. And he’s starting 35th. And he’s historically been competent on this track type.

We’re choosing not to think too deeply about the fact that Kaulig Racing currently feels like a lame-duck operation preparing for a manufacturer switch while surviving on whatever information still trickles down the bowtie-shaped pipeline.

What we are thinking about is projected finishing position.

We’ve got Allmendinger landing around 22nd, which would place him safely into the main field while crushing value at this salary. And yes, before you ask, we know this entire paragraph sounds like somebody trying to talk themselves into gas station sushi at 1:30 in the morning.

That’s DFS, baby.

Want to bet the NASCAR All-Star Race outright? Head to the top sportsbooks for the latest NASCAR odds and futures.