Rays vs Yankees Predictions, Picks & Player Props (May 22)

• The Rays and Yankees begin a 3-game set in the Bronx in an AL East rivalry showdown
• Nick Martinez toes the rubber against Gerrit Cole, who is making his first MLB start since 2024
• Keep reading for my Rays vs Yankees predictions and favorite prop bet for Friday’s duel

The New York Yankees (30-21) host the Tampa Bay Rays (33-15) for Game 1 of their series Friday night at 7:05 PM ET / 4:05 PM PT at Yankee Stadium. The Yanks are looking to bounce back following a pair of losses, while the Rays have won four straight as they sport the American League’s best record. The MLB odds have installed the home team as favorites.

While NYY are four and a half games back of TB, they have the shortest World Series odds from the AL at +600, compared to +1900 for the Rays. Keep reading for my expert breakdown of this crucial clash as both squads jockey for position in the division.

Rays vs Yankees Prediction, Picks & Best Bets

• Under 8 Runs (-110 at FanDuel)
• Gerrit Cole Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+118 at FanDuel)

Despite the Rays rolling out the incredibly effective Nick Martinez, the Yankees possess a clear offensive edge. The lineup boasts a superior .752 team OPS compared to a .726 mark for the Rays. The Yankees have drawn 229 walks compared to 165 for their opponents, leading to consistent traffic on the basepaths.

I anticipate a low-scoring affair, however, making the Under my preferred total play. The pitching staff for the Rays sports a 3.57 ERA, and Martinez has been excellent across his 53.2 innings of work, with a sparkling 1.51 ERA and just eleven free passes, which will limit the Bronx Bombers.

The Yankees limit opponents to a .223 batting average, and their relievers hold a 3.45 ERA, restricting late-game scoring.

For player props, my best bet is Gerrit Cole Under 4.5 Strikeouts, who is seeing his first MLB action since the 2024 World Series (Tommy John surgery). Tampa Bay strikes out the least of any team in baseball, plus NYY might be extra cautious about taxing him too much in his first start in nearly two years.

Rays vs Yankees Odds & Betting Splits

Odds as of May 22 from Caesars Sportsbook. Click here for a Caesars Sportsbook promo code before betting on Rays vs Yankees.

In the MLB public betting splits, 61% of wagers are on the Yankees, but interestingly, 75% of the handle points to the Rays.

As for the totals market, bettors anticipate runs. A massive 78% of tickets and 82% of the cash are hammering the Over, which flies against my prediction.

Starting Pitching & Team Stats Matchup

Nick Martinez vs Gerrit Cole

Take a look at the MLB batter vs pitcher stats for additional information to glean on before wagering on the Rays vs Yankees this evening.

TB vs NYY Team Stats Comparison

Rays vs Yankees Injury Reports & Betting Impact

The most glaring offensive absence for the Yankees is Giancarlo Stanton. Without his bat, opposing pitchers have one less power threat to navigate. This places a heavier burden on Aaron Judge to supply the long ball.

Despite missing several bullpen arms, the Rays relievers still rank in the top four for overall WHIP. They have successfully kept late-game runs at a premium, reinforcing my Under prediction.

How to Watch Rays vs Yankees

TV Network: Rays.TV, YES

Away Team: Tampa Bay Rays

Home Team: New York Yankees

Date: May 22, 2026

Game Time: 7:05 PM ET / 4:05 PM PT

Venue: Yankee Stadium

Location: Bronx, New York