Dodgers vs D-backs Predictions & Player-Prop Picks (Ohtani vs Gallen)
By Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The Dodgers are -190 moneyline favorites tonight versus the D-backs
- LA starter Shohei Ohtani boasts a pristine 0.82 ERA and 0.82 WHIP so far this season
- See the Dodgers vs D-backs predictions and player props picks for Ohtani vs Gallen, below
The 38-22 Los Angeles Dodgers continue their four-game series tonight against the 32-27 Arizona Diamondbacks, with first pitch set for 8:40 p.m. EST from Chase Field.
The division rivals are continuing this set following a 4-1 Arizona victory in their previous contest. The home team leaned on the long ball in that matchup, getting home runs from Tommy Troy, Nolan Arenado, and Ketel Marte. This backed a strong pitching performance that held an elite lineup to a single run.
Tonight’s matchup promises to be an excellent pitching duel. Two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani gets the starting nod for the Dodgers, squaring off against Arizona ace Zac Gallen. Online sportsbooks are siding with LA in the latest MLB odds, and I’m inclined to agree. Keep reading to find out why, plus see the Dodgers vs D-backs predictions and player prop picks for Ohtani vs Gallen below.
Dodgers vs D-backs Predictions
SPORTSBOOK
When handicapping this National League West clash, my two favorite bets to make are the Dodgers moneyline and Under 9 runs. The Dodgers possess a massive analytical edge with Ohtani toeing the rubber. Through 55.0 innings pitched this season, he boasts a 0.82 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and 9.98 strikeouts per nine innings.
Conversely, Gallen has struggled to find his rhythm. Over 59.1 innings, he carries a 5.16 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. The season-long team metrics also heavily favor the visitors. The Dodgers thoroughly outpace the Diamondbacks offensively, sporting a superior .787 team OPS compared to a .704 mark for Arizona.
LA’s combination of elite run-prevention and slugging in the MLB starting lineups makes them the clear analytical choice. Gallen allows 10.47 hits per nine innings, which spells trouble against a lineup that draws walks and hits for power.
As for the total, with Ohtani pitching like a Cy Young Odds contender and an elite bullpen carrying a collective 3.19 ERA, runs will be at a premium for the home side. The Under has cashed at a 70.0% clip over the last 10 games for the Dodgers.
Shohei Ohtani vs Zac Gallen Stats
Ohtani has been arguably the most dominant pitcher in baseball. His 2.48 FIP indicates his run prevention is well-supported by underlying metrics, anchored by a suffocating .147 opponent batting average. In his last 10 games, he generated 10.50 strikeouts per nine innings.
Gallen’s season has been unusually bumpy. His 4.87 FIP suggests his struggles are earned, exacerbated by a dip in his strikeout rate (6.37 K/9). Opponents are hitting a robust .290 against him. Over his last 49.1 innings pitched, his ERA swelled to 5.47 with a 1.54 WHIP.
Dodgers vs D-backs Team Stats
The offensive disparities detail exactly why the road team is favored. Away from their home stadium, they lead all of Major League Baseball in batting average (.270) and OPS (.799). They are plating 5.90 runs per game on the road and are once again the favorites in the World Series odds.
Star players like Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman consistently make high-quality contact. The home team has been respectable, ranking in the top ten in home runs per game (4.83). However, their 21st-ranked home exit velocity suggests they rely on timely hitting rather than raw power.
Dodgers vs D-backs Odds
Odds as of June 3. Claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on MLB tonight.
Dodgers vs D-backs Player Prop Picks
- Shohei Ohtani Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+120 at DraftKings)
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Finally, finding plus-money on an Ohtani prop is a rare opportunity. Generating roughly 10 strikeouts per nine innings, he is beautifully positioned to eclipse the 6.5 threshold. According to the MLB batter vs pitcher stats, Ohtani has cleared this line in six of his past seven starts, reaching at least 8 K’s in four of those outings. He’s got a career 33% strikeout rate against the hitters in the Arizona lineup, with Pavin Smith being the only D-back player to record multiple hits off him.
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.