World Cup Group D Picks, Odds & Schedule – Is USA Good Value to Win Group D?

Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup features one of the three co-hosts, United States, alongside Turkiye, Paraguay, and Australia in what oddsmakers see as the most wide-open quartet in the tournament.

Home-soil should be an advantage for the Stars & Stripes, but will they live up to expectations? The USMNT enters as the betting favorite to win Group D but my tactical analysis identifies better value elsewhere.

Odds to Win World Cup Group D

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Kalshi

USA

39%

Turkiye

34%

Paraguay

19%

Australia

10%

Predict

Group D is the only one of the 12 groups that doesn’t have an odds-on favorite (even-money or shorter). United States are priced as 39¢ chalk (equal to +156 odds). Turkiye is a close second-favorite at 33¢ (+203) followed by Paraguay at 17¢ (+488) and Australia at 10¢ (+900).

Despite the odds, it’s hard to see the USMNT ending in first place in this group.

Odds and prices as of June 3 at Kalshi. If you don’t live in a Kalshi region, check out SBD’s list of top World Cup betting sites.

Group D Schedule

Why You Shouldn’t Back USMNT To Win Group D

The World Cup public betting data shows that the USMNT are not only favorites to win Group D, but also among the top-ten teams in terms of betting handle to win the entire tournament. Home-soil advantage aside, there isn’t a lot of data out there to support the Stars & Stripes. They have a strong crop of players, but the recent results have been underwhelming, and at +156, they would need at least a 40% chance of winning Group D in order to be a +EV wager. I don’t see it.

With no World Cup qualifying matches to back us, recent friendlies provide the only basis on which to analyze the USMNT. The results are telling; Mauricio Pochettino’s men haven’t been able to string together positive results on a consistent basis. Despite winning their previous friendly against Senegal 3-2 on May 31, they suffered devastating losses to Belgium (L 5-2) and Portugal (L 2-0) in the March window. A W5, D1, L4 mark over their last ten contests is far from ideal.

Still, names such as Christian Pulisic, Folarin Balogun, who could be a darkhorse candidate for the World Cup Golden Boot odds, Tyler Adams, and Weston McKennie are all thriving at the highest level of club soccer in Europe. That should be enough to push the USMNT into the next round. But first place in Group D is going to be difficult given the strength of Turkiye and Paraguay.

Is Paraguay or Turkiye a Bigger Threat to USMNT?

Turkiye are dangerously close to the USMNT in the odds, and they might just be the best value bet in Group D at +203. The talent on the Turkish squad is particularly evident in midfield, where Arda Güler (Real Madrid) and Hakan Calhanoglu (Inter Milan) pull the strings of a team that secured two wins in the UEFA Qualifying Playoffs to earn a 2026 FIFA World Cup berth. 

The Turkish outfit clinched the World Cup berth by beating Romania and Kosovo, each by tight 1-0 wins, in the playoffs. They also arrive at the World Cup in excellent form, as they are undefeated in their last seven matches across all competitions (W6, D1) and have lost just twice over their last 13 contests dating back to the beginning of 2025 (W10, D1, L2).

As for Paraguay, they finished in sixth place in the CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifiers with a W7, D7, L4 record while conceding just 10 goals in those 18 matches, the second-best defensive mark in the South American region. However, their results in recent friendly matches aren’t encouraging (W2, D1, L3), and with a severe lack of players featuring in Europe, there are myriad question marks surrounding La Albirroja. They’ll need to rely on their defensive ability to progress.

Australia Carrying Underdog Tag Once Again

If you want to know how to pick World Cup underdogs, Australia might be an excellent example. They’re the weakest team in the group by far, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be able to pull an upset here and there. They’re an interesting team to watch on World Cup game odds, as they might have value in specific matches, especially depending on how the other matches fare.

At the very least, their physicality could create problems for teams like the United States and Paraguay, and their set-piece and aerial threat can’t be overlooked.  But temper your expectations, as Australia don’t have a realistic path to reaching the knockout stages on paper given they’re the weakest team in Group D at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Pick to Win Group D: Turkiye (+203) at Kalshi

Turkiye isn’t going to appear high in the World Cup winner odds anytime soon, but their playmaking prowess makes them the best value to win the group. On a neutral field, they would be the favorite, and the USMNT’s recent results at home don’t justify their status as Group D chalk.